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In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

This article focuses on regional-level cooperation in higher education by examining the functional, organizational and political approaches (FOPA) framework for higher education regionalization and using supra-national regional universities as established and successful examples of regional-level higher education cooperation among countries.

A conceptual framework is used to provide the structure for analyzing the key approaches to higher education regionalization, followed by an analysis of supra-national regional universities to demonstrate the application of the model.

The FOPA framework for higher education regionalization includes three approaches. The first is the functional approach, which includes both collaborative academic and research activities among higher education institutions as well strategies and policies to help align systems across a region. The second is the organizational approach, which focuses on networks, organizations, institutions and programs, which facilitate partnerships. The third is the political approach, which includes regional-level agreements, declarations and strategic plans to promote higher education collaboration. Key higher education activities for each approach are discussed in generic terms, with examples provided from major regions of the world.

The research was based on desk research only. No interviews were conducted.

A conceptual analysis and a model were provided for the concept of regionalization of higher education and for regional universities, which can help readers locate their interests and research in the regionalization of higher education. Examples of three different types of regional universities were provided to give concrete illustrations of a regional university.

One of the rationales driving regional universities is to address and increase a sense of regional identify and to meet the social, economic and educational needs of the specified region.

Regional universities, such as the University of West Indies, Arab Open University and the Pan-Africa University, are an understudied phenomenon. Using them as innovative and sustainable examples of higher education regional cooperation and the FOPA model, this study illustrates how single-campus, multiple-campus and virtual regional universities are functioning to meet the diversified needs and priorities across a region through cooperation among countries.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the spillover effects of microcredit on the economy of Ecuador, with a particular focus on its potential as a poverty alleviation mechanism.

To address our research questions, we take into account the distance between cantons (Ecuador’s own administrative distribution) by adopting a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. To this end, a database will be constructed with macroeconomic information about the country, broken down by canton (administrative division of Ecuador), and in a 2019 cross section, with a total of 1,331 microcredit operations in all 221 of Ecuador’s cantons.

We find a positive effect of microcredit on these neighbouring regions in terms of wealth generation.

We acknowledge that this study is limited to Ecuadorian cantons. Nonetheless, it is crucial to emphasize that focussing on an under-represented developing country like Ecuador adds significant value to the research.

Facilitating access to microcredit is one of the main solutions to address the goals proposed in the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Microcredit activity contributes to the creation of value and wealth in Ecuador, exerting a spillover effect in neighbouring areas that can generate positive multiplier effects and alleviate poverty. For all of the above reasons, our proposal for the country is to support and promote microcredit as one of the main solutions to address the goals proposed in the SDGs.

The novelty of this study lies in the use of spatial econometrics to observe the indirect effects of microcredit on the regions bordering the canton in which it was issued, thus examining the spatial effects of microcredit on wealth distribution.

International business as a field values perspectives from various contexts, but scholars from emerging markets face a number of often-unseen challenges preventing them from fully contributing to the field. This study aims to explain those challenges and what the author has done to manage them.

This is a Reflexive piece in which the author makes sense of her own experience as a scholar not only of but also in an emerging market, as well as the experiences at her school in seeking to develop a high-quality doctoral program.

When leading scholars interact, whether in writing or in person, they tend to be in academically and otherwise well-resourced locations. This is true even for the leading international business scholars of emerging markets, and it imposes time and financial costs on scholars located in emerging markets wanting to participate in such conversations. Having experienced such challenges, the author worked with colleagues to design a doctoral program that could nurture rich scholarly conversations at the school. However, there remains a clear and pervasive tension between the inclusive aspirations of the field and the tendency for cutting-edge academic conversations to be concentrated in the developed world.

The experiences of emerging market scholars remain underrepresented in the field. By drawing on her own experience, both as a scholar and the head of the doctoral program at her school, the author provides suggestions for how to think about and develop a more inclusive scholarly conversation.

This study aims to analyze and compare the relationship between international trade in global value chains (GVC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Brazil and China from 2000 to 2016.

The input-output method apply to multiregional tables from Eora-26 to decompose the GHG emissions of the Brazilian and Chinese productive structure.

The data reveals that Chinese production and consumption emissions are associated with power generation and energy-intensive industries, a significant concern among national and international policymakers. For Brazil, the largest territorial emissions captured by the metrics come from services and traditional industry, which reveals room for improving energy efficiency. The analysis sought to emphasize how the productive structure and dynamics of international trade have repercussions on the environmental dimension, to promote arguments that guide the execution of a more sustainable, productive and commercial development strategy and offer inputs to advance discussions on the attribution of climate responsibility.

The metrics did not capture emissions related to land use and deforestation, which are representative of Brazilian emissions.

Comparative analysis of emissions embodied in traditional sectoral trade flows and GVC, on backward and forward sides, for developing countries with the main economic regions of the world.

The main purpose of this article is to understand the motivations for Bhutanese students to study hospitality and tourism courses. The second objective is to analyse what countries are the preferred destinations for study abroad and visitation for students. This includes focussing on new course topic areas such as sustainability for business in hospitality and tourism courses.

A quantitative methodology approach was undertaken with two surveys administered to the first and second student intakes into the Bhutan Middle Management Hotel Program. Motivational and reasoned action theory form the basis of the theoretical framework to understand behavioural intentions regarding educational choices in hospitality and tourism courses.

The results of the surveys indicate that the main motivations to study hospitality and tourism are for attraction, career opportunities, status, broader benefits and aptitude. In addition, it was found that students studying hospitality and tourism in Bhutan are likely to stay in the sector for a long period of time thereby contributing to the economic and social development of Bhutan. Moreover, it was found that the United Nations Sustainable Development goals are increasingly being integrated into the tourism and hospitality sector, which is influencing students to study these topic areas.

The results of this study will help government and hospitality providers support educational training programs by focussing on new education topic areas. This study is limited to Bhutan.

The results of this study will help government and hospitality providers support educational training programs by focussing on new education topic areas such as sustainability for business management. This will enable hospitality and tourism providers in Bhutan to update their curriculum and to focus on emerging industry needs.

This is amongst the first studies on Bhutanese students motivations for studying hospitality and tourism. It will provide practical and policy advise about how to train workers in order to become less reliant on foreign training providers and the importance of integrating sustainability topics in course design.

This study aims to explore the role of rebel group legitimacy and ideology in durable peace (DP) following peace agreements to end civil wars. It builds on earlier research showing that justice and civil society involvement are critical in achieving DP. This study adds the impacts of rebel group activities and support on DP. Activities include service delivery and mobilization. Support is gauged with outcomes of presidential and parliamentary elections held following peace agreements.

Five data sets were used to measure the key variables: DP, inclusive commissions (IC), legitimacy symmetry (electoral outcomes), service delivery and ideological mobilization. A measure of rebel group integration in the political system was also constructed. Impacts of the integration, legitimacy and ideology variables were assessed with a hierarchical regression model (HRM). This study begins with a base model drawn from earlier research showing the key predictors were procedural justice (PJ) and IC. The authors ask about the extent to which the rebel group variables contribute additional variance to the prediction of DP.

The main contributors to the prediction of DP were PJ, IC and integration in the political system. None of the legitimacy or mobilization variables added significant variance to the prediction. Only one of the mobilization variables, forced recruitment, was significant. The decision to integrate into the political system following the agreement did not mediate the relationship between PJ in the negotiation process and DP. Results of a factor analysis showed that DP, PJ, IC and integration formed a cluster with strong loadings on the first factor.

The negative results for the legitimacy and mobilization variables may not be the last word on rebel group influences. Lack of support for the key hypotheses spurs attempts to discover other sources that contribute to the survival of rebel group actors in the political system and, in turn, to DP.

The issues raised by this study contribute to debates about ways to attain peaceful relations among competing groups following a civil war. It appears that attention to factors inside and around the negotiation process (PJ, ICs and conversion) may be more important than rebel group activities outside of these processes. The results call attention, in particular, to the important role played by political integration. From a policy perspective, it would be useful to develop levers for encouraging rebel groups to emerge as political actors in the post-agreement environment.

Developing measures of the symmetry of rebel group legitimacy and integration in the context of a comparative case study are the primary original contributions of this study. Furthermore, the mode of analysis (HRM) is novel in this literature. This approach builds on and extends the earlier research on factors influencing DP.

Despite being one of the most used dependent variables in expatriate management research, no clear-cut understanding exists of what expatriate success means. Thus, this study aims to propose an integrative definition of expatriate success by providing an overview of expatriate success's dimensions, antecedents, and their interplay.

A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to achieve the purpose. A total of 249 empirical studies (quantitative 111, qualitative 50, mixed-methods 17), literature reviews (67) and meta-analyses (4) on expatriate success were reviewed from Web of Science and Scopus databases published from 1990 until December 2021. The study selection criteria followed the PRISMA flowchart steps, and then descriptive and network analyses were performed to identify expatriates' success dimensions, antecedents and their interplay.

The findings show the interplay among antecedents and dimensions of expatriate success across three levels (individual, interpersonal and organisational) to clarify the concept of expatriate success. Also, the study offers a comprehensive definition of expatriate success based on the dimensions identified.

The suggested definition of expatriate success elucidates the “atheoretical”, multidimensional and socially constructed nature of the construct and hence, calls for more “theoretical”, multidimensional and subjective considerations of the term to ground human resource management practices addressed to attain expatriates' success.

This paper provides an integrative definition of expatriate success, giving greater insight into the construct, in addition to critically reflecting on it.