Search results

The purpose of this paper is to compare the changes in the risk spillover effects between the copper spot and futures markets before and after the issuance of copper options, analyze the risk spillover effects between the three markets after the issuance of the options and can provide effective suggestions for regulators and investors who hedge risks.

The MV-CAViaR model is an extended form of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to the quantile model, and it is also a special form of the MVMQ-CAViaR model. Based on the VAR quantile model, this model has undergone continuous promotion of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (CAViaR) and the Multi-quantile Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (MQ-CAViaR), and finally got the current form of the model.

The issuance of options has led to certain changes in the risk spillover effect between the copper spot and its derivative markets, and the risk aggregation effect in the futures market has always been significant. Therefore, when supervising the copper product market and investors using copper derivatives to avoid market risks, they need to pay attention to the impact of futures on the spot market, the impact of options on the futures market and the risk spillover effects of spot and futures on the options market.

The empirical results of this paper can be used to hedge market risk investment strategies, and the changes in market relationships also provide an effective basis for the supervision of the copper product market by the supervisory authority.

It is the first literature research to discuss the risk and the impact of spillover effects of copper options on China copper market and its derivative markets. The MV-CAViaR model can capture the mutual risk influence between markets by modeling multiple markets simultaneously.

Using cotton yield, and rainfall data from Tajikistan, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the magnitude of weather induced revenue losses in cotton production. Hereby the authors look at different risk aggregation levels across political regions (meso-level). The authors then design weather index insurance products able to compensate revenue losses identified and analyze their risk reduction potential.

The authors design different weather insurance products based on put-options on a cumulated precipitation index. The insurance products are modeled for different inter-regional and intra-regional risk aggregation and risk coverage scenarios. In this attempt the authors deal with the common problem of developing countries in which yield data is often only available on an aggregate level, and weather data is only accessible for a low number of weather stations.

The authors find that it is feasible to design index-based weather insurance products on the meso-level with a considerable risk reduction potential against weather-induced revenue losses in cotton production. Furthermore, the authors find that risk reduction potential increases on the national level the more subregions are considered for the insurance product design. Moreover, risk reduction potential increases if the index insurance product applied is designed to compensate extreme weather events.

The findings suggest that index-based weather insurance products bear a large risk mitigation potential on an aggregate level. Hence, meso-level insurance should be recognized by institutions with a regional exposure to cost-related weather risks as part of their risk-management strategy.

The authors are the first to investigate the potential of weather index insurance for different risk aggregation levels in developing countries.

The application of weather derivatives in hedging crop yield risk is gaining more interest. However, the further development of weather derivatives – particularly exchange-traded – in the agricultural sector has been impeded by concerns over their hedging performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to derive the optimal hedging strategy and evaluate hedging effectiveness.

This framework incorporates a stochastic temperature model, a crop yield model, a risk-neutral pricing method and a profit optimization procedure. Based on a large number of simulated scenarios, the authors study crop yield hedge for a future year. The authors allow the hedger to choose from different types of exchange-traded weather derivatives, and examine the impact of various factors on the optimal hedging strategy.

The analysis shows that hedging objective, pricing method and geographical location of the hedged exposure all play important roles in choosing the best hedging strategy and assessing hedging effectiveness.

This framework is forward-looking, because it focusses on the crop yield hedge for a future year rather than on the historical hedging effectiveness often studied in literature. It utilizes the most up-to-date information related to temperature and crop yield, and hence produces a hedging strategy which is more relevant to the year under consideration.

In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the node risk. Furthermore, it is essential to propose risk accumulation assessment method of building construction.

Authors analyzed 419 accidents investigation reports on building construction. In total, 39 risk factors were identified by accidents analysis. These risk factors were combined with 245 risk evolution chains. Based on those, Gephi software was used to draw the risk evolution network model for building construction. Topological parameters were applied to interpret the risk evolution network characteristic.

Combining complex network with risk matrix, the standard of quantitative classification of node risk level is formulated. After quantitative analysis of node risk, 7 items of medium-risk node, 3 items of high-risk node and 2 items of higher-risk nodes are determined. The application results show that the system risk of the project is 44.67%, which is the high risk level. It can reflect the actual safety conditions of the project in a more comprehensive way.

This paper determined the level of node risk only using the node degree and risk matrix. In future research, more node topological parameters that could be applied to node risk, such as clustering coefficients, mesoscopic numbers, centrality, PageRank, etc.

This article can quantitatively assess the risk accumulation of building construction. It would help safety managers could clarify the system risk status. Moreover, it also contributes to reveal the correspondence between risk accumulation and accident evolution.

This study comprehensively considers the likelihood, consequences and correlation to assess node risk. Based on this, single-node risk and system risk assessment methods of building construction systems were proposed. It provided a promising method and idea for the risk accumulation assessment method of building construction. Moreover, evolution process of node risk is explained from the perspective of risk accumulation.

The purpose of this paper is to generalize the traditional risk evaluation methods and to specify a multi-level risk evaluation framework, in order to prepare customized risk evaluation and to enable effectively integrating the elements of risk evaluation.

A real case study of an electric motor manufacturing company is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new framework compared to the traditional and fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) approaches.

The essence of the proposed total risk evaluation framework (TREF) is its flexible approach that enables the effective integration of firms’ individual requirements by developing tailor-made organizational risk evaluation.

Increasing product/service complexity has led to increasingly complex yet unique organizational operations; as a result, their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Distinct structures, characteristics and processes within and between organizations require a flexible yet robust approach of evaluating risks efficiently. Most recent risk evaluation approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and an inappropriate structure for addressing the unique organizational demands and contextual factors. To address this challenge effectively, taking a crucial step toward customization of risk evaluation.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of data aggregation and farm‐level crop acreage on the level of natural hedge, i.e. the level of price‐yield correlations, which is an important issue in risk modeling and management.

Swiss FADN data for five crops covering the period 2002‐2009 are used to estimate price‐yield correlations at the farm‐ as well as on an aggregated level. Tobit regressions are used to estimate empirical relationships between the level of natural hedge and the underlying crop acreage.

Price‐yield correlations differ significantly between farm‐ and aggregated‐level. More specifically, the natural hedge observed at the farm‐level is much smaller, i.e. correlations are closer to zero. Taking correlations from aggregated levels thus leads to an underestimation of farm‐level revenue variability. Furthermore, it is found that larger farms have a stronger natural hedge. For instance, a 1 percent increase in area under maize and intensive barley leads to a change in the correlation by −0.02 and −0.08, respectively.

The natural hedge is often approximated with correlations observed at more aggregated levels, e.g. the county level. The results show that this implies errors in risk assessment and modeling as well as insurance applications. Thus, farm‐level estimates should be used. The here presented relationship between price‐yield correlations and farm‐level crop acreage can be used to derive better information on levels of the natural hedge.

Even though the effects of data aggregation on price‐yield correlations have been discussed in earlier research, this paper is the first to also account for on‐farm effects of underlying crop acreage on levels of natural hedge. It is found that this simple relationship can be useful in risk management and modeling applications.

New methods of integrated risk modeling play an important role in determining the efficiency of bank portfolio management. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a systematic approach for risk strategies formulation based on risk‐return optimized portfolios, which applies different methodologies of risk measurement in the context of actual regulatory requirements.

Optimization problems to illustrate different levels of integrated bank portfolio management has been set up. It constrains economic capital allocation using different risk aggregation methodologies. Novel methods of financial engineering to relate actual bank capital regulations to recently developed methods of risk measurement value‐at‐risk (VaR) and conditional value‐at‐risk (CVaR) deviation are applied. Optimization problems with the portfolio safeguard package by American Optimal Decision (web site: www.AOrDA.com) are run.

This paper finds evidence that risk aggregation in Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) should be based on risk‐adjusted aggregation approaches, resulting in an efficient use of economic capital. By using different values of confidence level α in VaR and CVaR, deviation, it is possible to obtain optimal portfolios with similar properties. Before deciding to insert constraints on VaR or CVaR, one should analyze properties of the dataset on which computation are based, with particular focus on the model for the tails of the distribution, as none of them is “better” than the other.

This study should further be extended by an inclusion of simulation‐based scenarios and copula approaches for integrated risk measurements.

The suggested optimization models support a systematic generation of risk‐return efficient target portfolios under the ICAAP. However, issues of practical implementation in risk aggregation and capital allocation still remain unsolved and require heuristic implementations.

This study aims to improve the reliability of emergency safety barriers by using the subjective safety analysis based on evidential reasoning theory in order to develop on a framework for optimizing the reliability of emergency safety barriers.

The emergency event tree analysis is combined with an interval type-2 fuzzy-set and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In order to the quantitative data is not available, this study based on interval type2 fuzzy set theory, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers describe the expert's imprecise uncertainty about the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers related to the liquefied petroleum gas storage prevent. Fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered weighted average aggregation are used to address uncertainties in emergency safety barrier reliability assessment. In addition, a critical analysis and some corrective actions are suggested to identify weak points in emergency safety barriers. Therefore, a framework decisions are proposed to optimize and improve safety barrier reliability. Decision-making in this framework uses evidential reasoning theory to identify corrective actions that can optimize reliability based on subjective safety analysis.

A real case study of a liquefied petroleum gas storage in Algeria is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology provides the possibility to evaluate the values of the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the fuzzy failure probabilities using the fuzzy type-2 AHP method are the most reliable and accurate. As a result, the improved fault tree analysis can estimate uncertain expert opinion weights, identify and evaluate failure probability values for critical basic event. Therefore, suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the failure probability of the fire-fighting system are provided. The obtained results show that of the ten proposed corrective actions, the corrective action “use of periodic maintenance tests” prioritizes reliability, optimization and improvement of safety procedures.

This study helps to determine the safest and most reliable corrective measures to improve the reliability of safety barriers. In addition, it also helps to protect people inside and outside the company from all kinds of major industrial accidents. Among the limitations of this study is that the cost of corrective actions is not taken into account.

Our contribution is to propose an integrated approach that uses interval type-2 fuzzy sets and AHP method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the integration of fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered averaging aggregation helps to improve the reliability of the fire-fighting system and optimize the corrective actions that can improve the safety practices in liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks.

Part IV provides readers with the extant requirements for the application of materiality to recognition, measurement, presentation, and disclosure in the financial statements. This part also includes a detailed critical review of the recent Practice Statement on materiality, the FASB’s proposed ASU on the notes and the amendments to the Conceptual Framework proposed by the IASB and the FASB.

The part expands to issues that are typical of Management Commentary, including the SEC guidance on materiality in Management Discussion and Analysis.

It informs about the complexities and subtle differences between financial statements and bookkeeping and the different standards of reasonableness versus materiality.

A section moves from materiality to material misstatements and covers the application of materiality in auditing.

Another section goes in depth on internal control over financial reporting, showing the linkages between materiality and risk appetite and risk tolerance and the related application guidance.