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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 February 2020

Zsolt Tibor Kosztyán, Tibor Csizmadia, Zoltán Kovács and István Mihálcz

The purpose of this paper is to generalize the traditional risk evaluation methods and to specify a multi-level risk evaluation framework, in order to prepare customized risk

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to generalize the traditional risk evaluation methods and to specify a multi-level risk evaluation framework, in order to prepare customized risk evaluation and to enable effectively integrating the elements of risk evaluation.

Design/methodology/approach

A real case study of an electric motor manufacturing company is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new framework compared to the traditional and fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) approaches.

Findings

The essence of the proposed total risk evaluation framework (TREF) is its flexible approach that enables the effective integration of firms’ individual requirements by developing tailor-made organizational risk evaluation.

Originality/value

Increasing product/service complexity has led to increasingly complex yet unique organizational operations; as a result, their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Distinct structures, characteristics and processes within and between organizations require a flexible yet robust approach of evaluating risks efficiently. Most recent risk evaluation approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and an inappropriate structure for addressing the unique organizational demands and contextual factors. To address this challenge effectively, taking a crucial step toward customization of risk evaluation.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 December 2022

Zhenhua Luo, Juntao Guo, Jianqiang Han and Yuhong Wang

Prefabricated technology is gradually being applied to the construction of subway stations due to its characteristic of mechanization. However, the prefabricated subway station in…

Abstract

Purpose

Prefabricated technology is gradually being applied to the construction of subway stations due to its characteristic of mechanization. However, the prefabricated subway station in China is in the initial stage of development, which is prone to construction safety issues. This study aims to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations in China and formulate corresponding countermeasures to ensure construction safety.

Design/methodology/approach

A construction safety risk evaluation index system for the prefabricated subway station was established through literature research and the Delphi method. Furthermore, based on the structure entropy weight method, matter-element theory and evidence theory, a hybrid evaluation model is developed to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations. The basic probability assignment (BPA) function is obtained using the matter-element theory, the index weight is calculated using the structure entropy weight method to modify the BPA function and the risk evaluation level is determined using the evidence theory. Finally, the reliability and applicability of the evaluation model are verified with a case study of a prefabricated subway station project in China.

Findings

The results indicate that the level of construction safety risks in the prefabricated subway station project is relatively low. Man risk, machine risk and method risk are the key factors affecting the overall risk of the project. The evaluation results of the first-level indexes are discussed, and targeted countermeasures are proposed. Therefore, management personnel can deeply understand the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations.

Originality/value

This research fills the research gap in the field of construction safety risk assessment of prefabricated subway stations. The methods for construction safety risk assessment are summarized to establish a reliable hybrid evaluation model, laying the foundation for future research. Moreover, the construction safety risk evaluation index system for prefabricated subway stations is proposed, which can be adopted to guide construction safety management.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

Huan Wang, Daao Wang, Peng Wang and Zhigeng Fang

The purpose of this research is to provide a theoretical framework for complex equipment quality risk evaluation. The primary aim of the framework is to enhance the ability to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to provide a theoretical framework for complex equipment quality risk evaluation. The primary aim of the framework is to enhance the ability to identify risks and improve risk control efficiency during the development phase.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel framework for quality risk evaluation in complex equipment is proposed, which integrates probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set-quality function deployment (PHFS-QFD) and grey clustering. PHFS-QFD is applied to identify the quality risk factors, and grey clustering is used to evaluate quality risks in cases of poor quality information during the development stage. The unfolding function of QFD is applied to simplify complex evaluation problems.

Findings

The methodology presents an innovative approach to quality risk evaluation for complex equipment development. The case analysis demonstrates that this method can efficiently evaluate the quality risks for aircraft development and systematically trace back the risk factors through hierarchical relationships. In comparison to traditional failure mode and effects analysis methods for quality risk assessment, this approach exhibits superior effectiveness and reliability in managing quality risks for complex equipment development.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the field by introducing a novel theoretical framework that combines PHFS-QFD and grey clustering. The integration of these approaches significantly improves the quality risk evaluation process for complex equipment development, overcoming challenges related to data scarcity and simplifying the assessment of intricate systems.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 September 2020

Mohd Razali Ismail, Ming Sun and Graeme Bowles

This paper presents results of an empirical investigation involving private construction clients in Malaysia, which seeks to establish appropriate tender evaluation criteria and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper presents results of an empirical investigation involving private construction clients in Malaysia, which seeks to establish appropriate tender evaluation criteria and weightings for a risk-oriented tender evaluation system.

Design/methodology/approach

At the initial stage of this study, a list of significant risks is identified and gathered through literature review. These risks are then mapped onto tender evaluation criteria. Following this, the identified risks and their mappings are validated through a questionnaire survey to determine appropriate criteria for tender evaluation. Weightings for the selected evaluation criteria are established through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) group decision-making (GDM) method.

Findings

In practice, different lists of criteria, covering tender's technical capability and financial performance, are often used by different client organisations. However, there is a paucity of research behind the selection of these criteria and the weighting being attributed to different criteria.

Originality/value

This study provides an important and a valuable insight into the actual criteria used during tender evaluation practice based on an analysis of documentary evidence. Both current practice and existing tender evaluation studies failed to address the risk element adequately. There is a lack of an explicit link between evaluation criteria and project risks. This study fills this knowledge gap by identifying tender evaluation criteria through reviewing criteria used in practice and examining their links to risk factors.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 28 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2010

Yongxiu He, Weijun Tao, Aiying Dai, Lifang Yang, Rui Fang and Furong Li

The purpose of this paper is to use artificial intelligence to evaluate the risks of urban power network planning.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use artificial intelligence to evaluate the risks of urban power network planning.

Design/methodology/approach

A fuzzy Bayesian least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM) model is established in this paper, which can learn the risk information of urban power network planning through artificial intelligence and acquire expert knowledge for its risk evaluation. With the advantage of possessing learning analog simulation precision and speed, the proposed model can be effectively applied in conducting a risk evaluation of an urban network planning system. First, fuzzy theory is applied to quantify qualitative risk factors of the planning to determine the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation value of the risk factors. Then, Bayesian evidence framework is utilized in LS_SVM model parameter optimization to automatically adjust the LS_SVM regularization parameters and nuclear parameters to obtain the best parameter values. Based on this, a risk comprehensive evaluation of urban network planning based on artificial intelligence is established.

Findings

The fuzzy Bayesian LS_SVM model established in this paper is an effective artificial intelligence method for risk comprehensive evaluation in urban network planning through empirical study.

Originality/value

The paper breaks new ground in using artificial intelligence to evaluate urban power network planning risks.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 39 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 May 2023

Yousong Wang, Enqin Gong, Yangbing Zhang, Yao Yao and Xiaowei Zhou

The need for infrastructure is growing as urbanization picks up speed, and the infrastructure REITs financing model has been crucial in reviving the vast infrastructure stock…

Abstract

Purpose

The need for infrastructure is growing as urbanization picks up speed, and the infrastructure REITs financing model has been crucial in reviving the vast infrastructure stock, alleviating the pressure on government funds and diversifying investment entities. This study aims to propose a framework to better assess the risks of infrastructure REITs, which can serve for the researchers and the policy makers to propose risk mitigation strategies and policy recommendations more purposively to facilitate successful implementation and long-term development of infrastructure REITs.

Design/methodology/approach

The infrastructure REITs risk evaluation index system is established through literature review and factor analysis, and the optimal comprehensive weight of the index is calculated using the combination weight. Then, a risk evaluation cloud model of infrastructure REITs is constructed, and experts quantify the qualitative language of infrastructure REITs risks. This paper verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model by taking a basic REITs project in China as an example. This paper takes infrastructure REITs project in China as an example, to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud evaluation method.

Findings

The research outcome shows that infrastructure REITs risks manifest in the risk of policy and legal, underlying asset, market, operational and credit. The main influencing factors in terms of their weights are tax policy risk, operation and management risk, liquidity risk, termination risk and default risk. The financing project is at a higher risk, and the probability of risk is 64.2%.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by supplementing a set of scientific and practical risk evaluation methods to assess the potential risks of infrastructure REITs project, which contributes the infrastructure financing risk management system. Identify key risk factors for infrastructure REITs with underlying assets, which contributes to infrastructure REITs project management. This research can help relevant stakeholders to control risks throughout the infrastructure investment and financing life cycle, provide them with reference for investment and financing decision-making and promote more sustainable and healthy development of infrastructure REITs in developing countries.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Libiao Bai, Zhiguo Wang, Hailing Wang, Ning Huang and Huijing Shi

Inadequate balancing of resources often results in resource conflict in the multiproject management process. Past research has focused on how to allocate a small amount of…

Abstract

Purpose

Inadequate balancing of resources often results in resource conflict in the multiproject management process. Past research has focused on how to allocate a small amount of resources optimally but has scarcely explored how to foresee multiproject resource conflict risk in advance. The purpose of this study is to address this knowledge gap by developing a model to predict multiproject resource conflict risk.

Design/methodology/approach

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to transform subjective judgments into quantitative information, based on which an evaluation index system for multiproject resource conflict risk that focuses on the interdependence of multiple project resources is proposed. An artificial neural network (ANN) model combined with this system is proposed to predict the comprehensive risk score that can describe the severity of risk.

Findings

Accurately predicting multiproject resource conflict risks in advance can reduce the risk to the organization and increase the probability of achieving the project objectives. The ANN model developed in this paper by the authors can capture the essential components of the underlying nonlinear relevance and is capable of predicting risk appropriately.

Originality/value

The authors explored the prediction of the risks associated with multiproject resource conflicts, which is important for improving the success rate of projects but has received limited attention in the past. The authors established an evaluation index system for these risks considering the interdependence among project resources to describe the underlying factors that contribute to resource conflict risks. The authors proposed an effective model to forecast the risk of multiproject resource conflicts using an ANN. The model can effectively predict complex phenomena with complicated and highly nonlinear performance functions and solve problems with many random variables.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 28 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 April 2023

Ping Li, Zhipeng Chang and Wenhe Chen

To maintain the bottom line of food import risk in China, this paper proposes a novel risk state evaluation model based on bottom-line thinking after analyzing the decision-making…

Abstract

Purpose

To maintain the bottom line of food import risk in China, this paper proposes a novel risk state evaluation model based on bottom-line thinking after analyzing the decision-making ideas embedded in the bottom-line thinking method.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the order relation analysis method (G1 method) and Laplacian score (LS) are applied to calculate the constant weights of indexes. Then, the worst-case scenario of food import risk can be estimated to strive for the best result, so the penalty state variable weight function is introduced to obtain variable weights of indexes. Finally, the study measures the risk state of China's food import from the overall situation using the set pair analysis (SPA) method and identifies the key factors affecting food import risk.

Findings

The risk states of food supply in eight countries are in the state of average potential and partial back potential as a whole. The results indicate that China's food import risks are at medium and upper-medium risk levels in most years, fluctuating slightly from 2010 to 2020. In addition, some factors are diagnosed as the primary control objects for holding the bottom line of food import risk in China, including food output level, food export capacity, bilateral relationship and political risk.

Originality/value

This paper proposes a novel risk state evaluation model following bottom-line thinking for food import risk in China. Besides, SPA is first applied to the risk evaluation of food import, expanding the application field of the SPA method.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 September 2022

Ankit Kumar, Rachna Khare, Sandeep Sankat and Pratyoosh Madhavi

The statistics show that older adults have been major fire victims in high-rise buildings. However, the fire safety building codes in most countries are not inclusive and do not…

Abstract

Purpose

The statistics show that older adults have been major fire victims in high-rise buildings. However, the fire safety building codes in most countries are not inclusive and do not reflect provisions for older adults. The research aims to develop a fire risk assessment index system for older adults living in high-rise residential buildings in India. The study further develops a fire rating system to improve fire safety provisions in high-rise buildings in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs Delphi, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation techniques. It considers 18 in-depth interviews and group discussions with builders, developers, architects, policymakers, and fire safety experts and consultants to develop a fire risk assessment system for older occupants living in high-rise residential buildings in India.

Findings

The fire protection systems and fire management systems are not as per the needs of older adults. The egress system components need improvisation considering the challenges of older adults.

Research limitations/implications

The study is limited to older adults living in high-rise residential buildings in the capital city of Gujarat, Ahmedabad.

Practical implications

This study will assist policymakers in developing fire safety standards that are targeted to the needs of older persons living in high-rise residential buildings during a fire evacuation.

Originality/value

While several approaches for measuring fire risk in high-rise residential buildings exist, no such system has been developed specifically for older adults in India.

Details

International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, vol. 41 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-4708

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2015

Caroline D Bergeron and Daniela B Friedman

Risk communication is a critical component of individual health decision making and behavior. In disaster situations, it is crucial that risk-related messages are communicated…

Abstract

Purpose

Risk communication is a critical component of individual health decision making and behavior. In disaster situations, it is crucial that risk-related messages are communicated accurately and that they reach and inform target audiences about the steps they can take to protect their health. Despite a global recognition of the importance of risk communication in responding to disasters, there remains a dearth of evidence on how to evaluate the effectiveness of risk communication messages. The purpose of this paper is to develop and assess a pilot tool to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk messages.

Design/methodology/approach

A pilot evaluation tool was developed using the existing risk communication literature. An expert assessment of the tool was conducted using an open-ended survey and a focus group discussion with 18 experts at the Public Health Agency of Canada in February 2013.

Findings

The tool measures content, reach, and comprehension of the message. It is intended to be a quick, internal evaluation tool for use during a disaster or emergency. The experts acknowledged the practicality of the tool, while also recognizing evaluation challenges.

Research limitations/implications

This pilot exploratory tool was assessed using a relatively small sample of experts.

Practical implications

This tool offers public health and disaster preparedness practitioners a promising approach for evaluating and improving the communication and management of future public health emergencies.

Originality/value

This is the first practical tool developed to evaluate risk communication messages in disaster situations.

Details

Disaster Prevention and Management, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0965-3562

Keywords

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