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Article
Publication date: 25 February 2020

Zsolt Tibor Kosztyán, Tibor Csizmadia, Zoltán Kovács and István Mihálcz

The purpose of this paper is to generalize the traditional risk evaluation methods and to specify a multi-level risk evaluation framework, in order to prepare customized…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to generalize the traditional risk evaluation methods and to specify a multi-level risk evaluation framework, in order to prepare customized risk evaluation and to enable effectively integrating the elements of risk evaluation.

Design/methodology/approach

A real case study of an electric motor manufacturing company is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new framework compared to the traditional and fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) approaches.

Findings

The essence of the proposed total risk evaluation framework (TREF) is its flexible approach that enables the effective integration of firms’ individual requirements by developing tailor-made organizational risk evaluation.

Originality/value

Increasing product/service complexity has led to increasingly complex yet unique organizational operations; as a result, their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Distinct structures, characteristics and processes within and between organizations require a flexible yet robust approach of evaluating risks efficiently. Most recent risk evaluation approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and an inappropriate structure for addressing the unique organizational demands and contextual factors. To address this challenge effectively, taking a crucial step toward customization of risk evaluation.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

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Article
Publication date: 28 September 2020

Mohd Razali Ismail, Ming Sun and Graeme Bowles

This paper presents results of an empirical investigation involving private construction clients in Malaysia, which seeks to establish appropriate tender evaluation

Abstract

Purpose

This paper presents results of an empirical investigation involving private construction clients in Malaysia, which seeks to establish appropriate tender evaluation criteria and weightings for a risk-oriented tender evaluation system.

Design/methodology/approach

At the initial stage of this study, a list of significant risks is identified and gathered through literature review. These risks are then mapped onto tender evaluation criteria. Following this, the identified risks and their mappings are validated through a questionnaire survey to determine appropriate criteria for tender evaluation. Weightings for the selected evaluation criteria are established through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) group decision-making (GDM) method.

Findings

In practice, different lists of criteria, covering tender's technical capability and financial performance, are often used by different client organisations. However, there is a paucity of research behind the selection of these criteria and the weighting being attributed to different criteria.

Originality/value

This study provides an important and a valuable insight into the actual criteria used during tender evaluation practice based on an analysis of documentary evidence. Both current practice and existing tender evaluation studies failed to address the risk element adequately. There is a lack of an explicit link between evaluation criteria and project risks. This study fills this knowledge gap by identifying tender evaluation criteria through reviewing criteria used in practice and examining their links to risk factors.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 28 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 15 June 2010

Yongxiu He, Weijun Tao, Aiying Dai, Lifang Yang, Rui Fang and Furong Li

The purpose of this paper is to use artificial intelligence to evaluate the risks of urban power network planning.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use artificial intelligence to evaluate the risks of urban power network planning.

Design/methodology/approach

A fuzzy Bayesian least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM) model is established in this paper, which can learn the risk information of urban power network planning through artificial intelligence and acquire expert knowledge for its risk evaluation. With the advantage of possessing learning analog simulation precision and speed, the proposed model can be effectively applied in conducting a risk evaluation of an urban network planning system. First, fuzzy theory is applied to quantify qualitative risk factors of the planning to determine the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation value of the risk factors. Then, Bayesian evidence framework is utilized in LS_SVM model parameter optimization to automatically adjust the LS_SVM regularization parameters and nuclear parameters to obtain the best parameter values. Based on this, a risk comprehensive evaluation of urban network planning based on artificial intelligence is established.

Findings

The fuzzy Bayesian LS_SVM model established in this paper is an effective artificial intelligence method for risk comprehensive evaluation in urban network planning through empirical study.

Originality/value

The paper breaks new ground in using artificial intelligence to evaluate urban power network planning risks.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 39 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Libiao Bai, Zhiguo Wang, Hailing Wang, Ning Huang and Huijing Shi

Inadequate balancing of resources often results in resource conflict in the multiproject management process. Past research has focused on how to allocate a small amount of…

Abstract

Purpose

Inadequate balancing of resources often results in resource conflict in the multiproject management process. Past research has focused on how to allocate a small amount of resources optimally but has scarcely explored how to foresee multiproject resource conflict risk in advance. The purpose of this study is to address this knowledge gap by developing a model to predict multiproject resource conflict risk.

Design/methodology/approach

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to transform subjective judgments into quantitative information, based on which an evaluation index system for multiproject resource conflict risk that focuses on the interdependence of multiple project resources is proposed. An artificial neural network (ANN) model combined with this system is proposed to predict the comprehensive risk score that can describe the severity of risk.

Findings

Accurately predicting multiproject resource conflict risks in advance can reduce the risk to the organization and increase the probability of achieving the project objectives. The ANN model developed in this paper by the authors can capture the essential components of the underlying nonlinear relevance and is capable of predicting risk appropriately.

Originality/value

The authors explored the prediction of the risks associated with multiproject resource conflicts, which is important for improving the success rate of projects but has received limited attention in the past. The authors established an evaluation index system for these risks considering the interdependence among project resources to describe the underlying factors that contribute to resource conflict risks. The authors proposed an effective model to forecast the risk of multiproject resource conflicts using an ANN. The model can effectively predict complex phenomena with complicated and highly nonlinear performance functions and solve problems with many random variables.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 2 November 2015

Caroline D Bergeron and Daniela B Friedman

Risk communication is a critical component of individual health decision making and behavior. In disaster situations, it is crucial that risk-related messages are…

Abstract

Purpose

Risk communication is a critical component of individual health decision making and behavior. In disaster situations, it is crucial that risk-related messages are communicated accurately and that they reach and inform target audiences about the steps they can take to protect their health. Despite a global recognition of the importance of risk communication in responding to disasters, there remains a dearth of evidence on how to evaluate the effectiveness of risk communication messages. The purpose of this paper is to develop and assess a pilot tool to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk messages.

Design/methodology/approach

A pilot evaluation tool was developed using the existing risk communication literature. An expert assessment of the tool was conducted using an open-ended survey and a focus group discussion with 18 experts at the Public Health Agency of Canada in February 2013.

Findings

The tool measures content, reach, and comprehension of the message. It is intended to be a quick, internal evaluation tool for use during a disaster or emergency. The experts acknowledged the practicality of the tool, while also recognizing evaluation challenges.

Research limitations/implications

This pilot exploratory tool was assessed using a relatively small sample of experts.

Practical implications

This tool offers public health and disaster preparedness practitioners a promising approach for evaluating and improving the communication and management of future public health emergencies.

Originality/value

This is the first practical tool developed to evaluate risk communication messages in disaster situations.

Details

Disaster Prevention and Management, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0965-3562

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 17 April 2020

Huimin Li, Lelin Lv, Feng Li, Lunyan Wang and Qing Xia

The application of the traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) technique has been widely questioned in evaluation information, risk factor weights and…

Abstract

Purpose

The application of the traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) technique has been widely questioned in evaluation information, risk factor weights and robustness of results. This paper develops a novel FMEA framework with extended MULTIMOORA method under interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy environment to solve these problems.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper introduces innovatively interval-value Pythagorean fuzzy weighted averaging (IVPFWA) operator, Tchebycheff metric distance and interval-value Pythagorean fuzzy weighted geometric (IVPFWG) operator into the MULTIMOORA submethods to obtain the risk ranking order for emergencies. Finally, an illustrative case is provided to demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of the novel fuzzy FMEA framework.

Findings

The feasibility and validity of the proposed method are verified by comparing with the existing methods. The calculation results indicate that the proposed method is more consistent with the actual situation of project and has more reference value.

Practical implications

The research results can provide supporting information for risk management decisions and offer decision-making basis for formulation of the follow-up emergency control and disposal scheme, which has certain guiding significance for the practical popularization and application of risk management strategies in the infrastructure projects.

Originality/value

A novel approach using FMEA with extended MULTIMOORA method is developed under IVPF environment, which considers weights of risk factors and experts. The method proposed has significantly improved the integrity of information in expert evaluation and the robustness of results.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

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Article
Publication date: 28 October 2013

Elena Beauchamp-Akatova and Richard Curran

The aim of this research is to provide an approach for modeling system risk management and to develop an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-based model for simulating…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this research is to provide an approach for modeling system risk management and to develop an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-based model for simulating decisions on introducing innovations in air transport systems.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes AHP and analytic network process (ANP) methodologies for overcoming fragmentation in risk assessments perceived by risk, budget, quality or schedule managements, and for resolving potential conflicts between safety, efficiency and well-being.

Findings

Issues in system risk evaluation and management were identified and transferred to a list of requirements. A generic ANP-based model for system risk management was developed as well as a template for capture of knowledge on risks, including expert knowledge, and for implementation of a new decision-making process as applied to introducing innovation(s).

Research limitations/implications

Since this research addresses evaluation and management of non-event based risks due to innovations in air transport systems, further analysis and re-evaluation of risks is required during and after the implementation in order to provide continuously dynamic representation of system risk.

Practical implications

The results of this study contribute to the development and implementation of a usable version of multi-criteria decision analysis at senior management level. Further, it stimulates mechanism for learning and trade-offs between various stakeholders.

Originality/value

This work is original in that it is cross-disciplinary (e.g. risk management, management of innovation, systems design). It addresses the issue of integrating a safety management system with an overall business management system. Also, it introduces qualitative non-event risk assessments into system risk management. In addition to the use of the AHP-model for system risk management, an implementation model (“risk stakeholder model”) is also developed.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1990

Mark Wilson

This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the capital budgeting practices of UK multinationals for foreign direct investment, with particular…

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the capital budgeting practices of UK multinationals for foreign direct investment, with particular reference to the use of a conceptual framework of risk and return. Drawing upon Robock's (1965) criticisms of the lack of a conceptual framework for businessmen within which to make international financing and capital budgeting decisions, we assess briefly the developments in the theoretical framework of risk and return since Robock's address. We then review the existing empirical literature (mainly from America) and combine this with our own research involving 59 UK multinationals, to conclude that the developments in the theoretical framework of risk and return have not been translated into practice. We offer suggestions as to why this is the case.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Na Xiao

This research aims to provide new empirical evidence, showing that trivial attributes can exert a significant impact on product evaluation when they help to fulfill…

Abstract

Purpose

This research aims to provide new empirical evidence, showing that trivial attributes can exert a significant impact on product evaluation when they help to fulfill non-consumption goals (goal that goes beyond functional benefits).

Design/methodology/approach

The research presents two experimental studies that investigate the role of trivial product attributes in various non-consumption contexts.

Findings

Trivial attributes can have a significant impact on product evaluation when they help to fulfill non-consumption goals. First, in the non-competitive versus competitive choice settings, a trivial attribute becomes more important when it helps to make a choice (i.e. a non-consumption goal). Second, in the low versus high social risk settings, a trivial attribute becomes more important when it helps to reduce a social risk (i.e. a non-consumption goal). In addition, self-confidence is a moderator, which regulates consumers’ ability to rely on trivial attributes in making product choices.

Research limitations/implications

The social risk manipulations (high vs low) were operationalized by manipulating the impression motive related to social risk. The more important a goal is, the more risk consumers feel in decision making (Lazarus, 1991). Therefore, risk is a proxy of the goal strength or goal relevance. Future research is needed to examine goal strength’s sole influence on the perception of the trivial attribute.

Practical implications

From managerial perspective, trivial attributes can help companies to improve their sales. For example, a way to increase an attribute’s importance is to put the product in a competitive setting. Increasing a social risk further increases the influence of trivial attributes. When less confident consumers perceive the social risk is high, they prefer a brand with a trivial attribute. For consumers, the findings also suggest that consumers should not be tempted to consider trivial attributes in their purchase decisions. Reconsidering attributes and increasing self-confidence could help maintain focus on non-trivial attributes.

Originality/value

The study makes several contributions to theory and practice. This is the first study to systematically propose a framework of how trivial attributes’ role in product evaluation and choice change based on goals. The paper clarifies confusions about the definitions of trivial attributes and reconciles contradictory findings in literature. A trivial attribute can be instrumental in evaluation and choice when it helps to achieve a non-consumption goal. It is also the first study to introduce social risks into trivial attributes research in choices. The findings provide empirical evidence that social risks and self-confidence together drive consumers to prefer for trivial attribute.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 50 no. 9/10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 5 May 2015

Xiongying Wu, Lihong Chen, Shuhui Pang and Xuemei Ding

The purpose of this paper is to explore a descriptive framework for a more structured and objective evaluation of the risk situation of textile and apparel, also to find…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore a descriptive framework for a more structured and objective evaluation of the risk situation of textile and apparel, also to find the best set of methods or optimal scientific grounds for the safety evaluation of textile and apparel.

Design/methodology/approach

Risk analysis theory is used to analyze potential hazard of textile and apparel, weight is given to risk indicators using subjective and objective weighting method, respectively, grading standards of safe risk of textile and apparel is made. Finally a safety risk assessment model of textile and apparel based on support vector machine (SVM) is built, and empirical analysis is also made.

Findings

Quantitative and highly reliable evaluation of textile and apparel risks, relatively easy grading classification and simplicity in operating the evaluation process are the advantages that promote the application of risk assessment model based on SVM for textile and apparel, and empirical analysis showed considerably good applicability.

Practical implications

The research is useful to ensure safety textile and apparel in market, also contributing to the sustainable development of textile industries in future.

Originality/value

SVM as a risk assessment method provided safety evaluation to toxic and harmful substance and small parts in textile and apparel, which can be an effective tool to monitor textile and apparel safety.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 32 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

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