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In this chapter, we explore the future global supply and demand trends for key agricultural products under baseline assumptions of socioeconomic changes in population and income. We examine nutritional trends under this baseline to highlight countries that lag behind in attaining key dietary sufficiency targets.

Using a global multimarket agricultural model, we disaggregate the key macronutrients within food commodities to understand how progress toward target dietary intake levels of nutrients compares across various regions. We look particularly at those regions whose populations fall into the bottom sixth of nutritional attainment (the Bottom Billion) and note their slow projected progress toward achieving dietary sufficiency in key macronutrients.

Many countries falling into the Bottom Billion category of nutritional attainment are in Africa and Asia. Colombia is the only Latin American country that fell into this category. Most populations in the Bottom Billion are deficient in carbohydrate, protein, and fiber intake.

Policies aimed at eliminating hunger and improving the nutritional status of populations must be aligned with evolving socioeconomic patterns and changes that shape food consumption and dietary patterns. This analysis evaluates regions of the world in greatest need of attaining sufficient dietary intake of important nutrients, and sets the stage for a deeper discussion of policy options for improving these regions’ food security.

The purpose of this analysis is to determine the impact of various factors, including population growth, income growth, and research and development on food security. This chapter also seeks to better understand the role of relative food prices in consumers’ selection of foods to meet their nutritional needs.

We utilize a welfare economic framework to provide a theoretical examination of the impact of various factors (including income growth, population growth, and research and development) on food security among the poor. A minimum nutritional diet is specified as a baseline for the evaluation of these scenarios.

Scenarios show the impacts that income, population growth, and research and development have on food security through their price and quantity impacts. Also, we highlight the difficulty in formulating an optimal diet that meets the recommended dietary requirements for only calories and protein, as different foods contain calories, proteins, and micronutrients in differing proportions. This indicates that changes in relative food prices will often alter consumers’ nutrient intake with respect to the minimum nutritional diet.

Research and development is critical in guaranteeing food availability. Trade-based, production-based, and own-labor entitlements are key factors in determining food security. Consumption subsidies and income supplements can be used to assist those who do not have entitlements sufficient to meet their minimum nutritional diet.

This study utilizes a different approach to examine the effect of transportation on the average height of people in the postbellum period, simply by modeling the change in the marketable surplus of protein. The results show that railroad development had a positive effect on average height from 1867 to 1887, and after this period, its effect was negligible. This study suggests that the factors with negative effects – such as urbanization, industrialization, and infectious diseases – dominated the positive effects of railroad development leading actual average height to decrease from 1867 to 1887.

This chapter explores policy implications of deliberately targeted interventions aimed at closing the gap between nutrition baseline trends and desirable levels of nutrition intake according to World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations guidelines. Special attention is paid to the implications for those at the bottom of the nutrition achievement range (Bottom Billion).

We conduct a forward looking evaluation with a global multimarket model for agriculture within the context of key drivers of change. We observe the effect of interventions on nutrition intake for the most food-insecure regions as transmitted through food prices, changes in country-level food trade, and other market-driven outcomes. We demonstrate the nutrition-enhancing effects that occur when animal-sourced protein consumption, livestock production, and livestock feed demand decrease in developed countries. We also show the effect of a significant growth in agricultural productivity and household incomes.

Our analysis shows that the most effective intervention boosts household income to facilitate adequate intake of food and key nutrients. Diet changes have notable effects but are harder to implement on a practical level. Enhancing agricultural productivity (especially in regions with historically low yields) is also effective in improving nutrition outcomes.

Short of social protection and direct assistance programs, the ability of policy to effect short-term changes in nutritional status is limited. We highlight the effectiveness of pathways that promote longer-term socioeconomic growth and productivity gains as ways of improving the nutrition and health status of consumers.

Rising incomes in China have not led to a smaller degree of undernutrition as measured by percentage of population below calorie and protein recommended daily allowances. The weak relationship between income and nutrition is further demonstrated by our income elasticity estimates for calories and protein, which are generally zero. We do find that the percentage of fat in the calorie source is a normal good.

Diet therapy or nutritional therapy has become a real challenge in the fight against the increasing number of modern illnesses such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancers. The scientific community has recognized the importance of studies that will support or rebut the association of certain nutrition/energy inputs with the prevention and/or improvement of certain diseases. Patient counseling is offered by medical doctors, nutritionists and dieticians, but patients often seek additional sources of information from popular media that may not be adequately scientifically supported. Whose responsibility is it when the Diet Therapy is not an effective treatment and where does the consequent ethical and moral responsibility lie?

This chapter argues for the importance of a nutritionally educated scientist evaluating the diets that are seen to be related with the health improvement also excluding diets that are mostly related to the patients’ well-being as the Mediterranean, DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension), Ketogenic and Vegetarian diet. Diet guidelines are often explained with linguistic variables (as “reduce the input of” etc.) which can be differently perceived by the end user. The interpretation if a linguistic variable is presented using the body mass index categories using a bell-shaped curve. The preferable area fits to the linguistic variable “acceptable BMI.” But also are indicated those areas which are less preferable. Those examples of information interpretations show the necessity of knowledge transfer. The quantity of information presented in diet guidelines can be experienced as a great muddle for patients; leaving them not knowing where and how to start. So, remains the ethical and moral responsibility of all links in the chain of nutritional and diet research and recommendations. Only objective and open-minded recommendations based on the latest scientific facts can gain confidence of the social, economical, and political subjects which must put the well-being of the population uppermost in their mind.

Aquaculture has become the world’s fastest growing food-production technology. This chapter outlines the main factors for this growth and shows how farmed seafood can contribute directly and indirectly to food security. We used the databases of the FAO on food production and trade to analyze the development of production in the main categories of animal protein. The trends were interpreted in a productivity growth and trade context. We found that modern aquaculture is enabled by transferring knowledge from terrestrial animal production and from developing new technologies to create substantial productivity growth and production cost reductions. The current growth rate of aquaculture production exceeds all other types of meat production and is expected to continue to increase as the agro-science industry expands (seafood made up 34.5% of the world’s animal production in 2013). More than 90% of the world’s aquaculture production takes place in developing countries, where it contributes to food security directly through consumption or indirectly as a source of income. Seafood is a main source of animal protein in many parts of the world, particularly in developing countries. Depending on species and country, farmed seafood contributes to food security directly through domestic consumption, or indirectly through economic growth from exports.

There is always a significant amount of speculation as to how the American diet changes over time. Some of speculation is based on what’s good for people, and others base their speculation on various supply and demand issues and the impact of world social changes. However one approach to forecasting the demand for various food products in the American diet is to extrapolate how America’s eating habits would change based on two different scenarios. The first scenario is an cohort model. In this scenario individuals continue their eating habits as they get older. The second scenario is the aging model, with which it is assumed that as people age they adopt the eating habits of the group that they’re moving into.

In this chapter we will evaluate these two scenario-based extrapolation models for projecting food consumption. Data comes from the National Health and Nutrition Examination survey (NHANES), which is conducted regularly by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). It measures levels of consumption with a level accuracy usually not associated with traditional business data services. The specific food items consumed in a 24-hour period are collected for over 30,000 people along with an extensive list of biometric, anthropometric, social, and clinical variables.

The models we evaluate assume that new consumers will enter the market based on projected population growth rates and that consumers “exit” the market based on projected death rates. This chapter applies the models to a subset of the total food variables in the database. Food groups that are pertinent to current issues were selected, such as beef, carbonated soft drinks, and snack foods.

The models forecast food consumption of the by 5 year increments from age 1 to age 85+ an aging cohort model extrapolate how eating habits could be expected to changeover this time interval. The implications of this exercise are essential to the forecasting and management of food processors. The extrapolations may provide guidance for potential changes in capital investment or entry into other markets.

Our planet's essential goods and services emanate from the functions of biological diversity. An ecological sphere rich in variety and endowed with highly productive ecosystem services in which fishery resources are present provides attractive benefits. Fishery resource is the primary form of people's livelihood for survival, especially in coastal areas. It is a major source of food protein for human beings representing at least 15 percent of the average per capita animal protein intake of more than 2.9 billion people [Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2009]. Significant demands for fishery resources create employment opportunities for many people around the world (FAO, 1995). Indeed, the number of fishers, including aquaculturists, has grown faster than the world's population and faster than employment in traditional agriculture during the past three decades (FAO, 2007a, 2009). In 2004, an estimated 51 million people were making their entire or partial living from fish production and capture (Pomeroy & Rivera-Guieb, 2006), the great majority of these in Asian countries (FAO, 2007a, 2009). According to FAO (2009), it has been estimated that for each person employed in the fishery primary sector, there could be four employed in the secondary sector (including fish processing, marketing, and related service industries). The estimated total population employed in the entire fish industry is approximately 204 million people. The total amounts of fish landing, including aquaculture, have maintained an upward trend, as shown in Fig. 1.1. To a large extent, advanced fishing technology that is efficiently and effectively capable of catching or harvesting fishery resources attracted a large number of fishers and has contributed to an increase in fish landing quantity.

Constructing consumption baskets for the benchmark periods 1745–1754 and 1882–1886, and price indices, we calculate real wages for Japanese unskilled daily laborers in 1741–1913. Matching caloric content and protein contents in our Japanese consumption baskets with those for Europe, we compare Japanese and European urban real wages. Real wages in Kyoto and later Tokyo are about a third London wages but comparable to wages in major Southern and Central European cities for 1700–1900. In Japan, wages are substantially higher in the Meiji period than in the Tokugawa period. These findings have implications for the debate on conditions in Europe and Asia on the eve of the Industrial Revolution.