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This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants.

The authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics.

The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation.

The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan.

To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Individuals' health is considered one of the major determinants of higher levels of productivity and economic development. Over the past century, the widespread occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has been a serious threat to economic development around the globe and has caused a dramatic fall in the life expectancy rate in many nations. This is the first study that examines the impact of HIV prevalence on health expenditure at the national level employing two linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and simultaneously tests the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries. The authors employ annual data from 1981 to 2016. They find that HIV prevalence has a significant impact on health expenditure in the short-run and long-run in all five countries using the linear model and four of the countries in the nonlinear model. They find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.

The authors are employing two linear and nonlinear ARDL models and simultaneously test the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries.

The authors find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research work that empirically examines the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure for this group of countries using linear and nonlinear ARDL approach for short run and long run.

One of the most important ways to pay attention to sustainable economic development is to invest in green technology and alter the energy consumption structure (ECS) in countries. Changing the ECS can be important in two ways: first, it increases the diversity of energy consumption and reduces energy dependence on other countries. Second, the use of highly polluted nonrenewable energy sources (such as oil and coal) is reduced, leading to the transfer of energy to natural gas with less carbon emissions or renewable energy. To this end, the authors examined the asymmetric effects of eco-innovation on the US ECS from 1980 to 2019. This paper aims to address this issue.

In this research, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) (NARDL) model is used and the results are compared with the linear ARDL model.

The ARDL results also confirm the positive effects of oil prices and GDP per capita in the long run. On the other hand, short-term and long-term Wald test results confirm the nonlinear effects of eco-innovation (LPATENT) on US ECS. These results indicate that 1% positive shock in LPATENTˆ+ increases the ECS by 0.179, while 1% negative fluctuations (LPATENTˆ-) leads to a decrease (−0.085) in the ECS. However, the ARDL results, in general, show the positive effects of LPATENT on the ECS in long run. Evidence suggests that ignoring nonlinear effects can lead to inaccurate results. Policy suggestions for environmental technology innovation are presented in the results.

This research has innovations in various aspects so that the previous studies in this field have examined the effects of environmental innovation on renewable or nonrenewable energy consumption, and so far no study has been done on the ECS. In this research, the Shannon–Wiener index has been used to calculate the ECS.

This paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.

Both a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.

The results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.

The focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

Despite the government’s efforts to protect domestic industries from foreign competition through tariffs, the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP continued to decline in Nigeria. Based on the scenario, this study assessed the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tariffs on industrial performance in Nigeria for the period 1988–2021. Tariff was captured with a tariff rate applied to the weighted mean of all products, while industry value added as a percent of GDP was used as a proxy for industrial performance.

Linear and nonlinear ARDL techniques were used for the analysis.

The symmetric (linear ARDL) results revealed that tariffs have a significant positive effect on industrial performance in both the short and long term. The asymmetric (nonlinear ARDL) results showed that a long-term asymmetry exists between tariffs and industrial performance. It revealed positive effects on industrial performance for both positive and negative tariff changes, with the negative change having a greater impact.

Generally, the results showed that the use of tariffs to protect domestic industries in Nigeria promotes industrial performance. The implication is that the declining contribution of the industrial sector to GDP in Nigeria is not a result of the tariff policy. It shows that the government should look beyond tariff policy to enhance the industrial contribution to GDP.

Nigeria should exercise caution in using tariff policies to protect domestic industries to avoid retaliation from their trade partners that could reverse the positive impacts.

Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach.

When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve.

The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research.

This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.

This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation.

The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10.

The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect.

To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactive link between housing prices, stock market price and effective exchange rate in the Iranian economy for a monthly period from April, 2004, to March, 2019. In addition, for a more accurate analysis, three control and determinates variables including real interest rate, real GDP and FDI have been added to the base model.

For this purpose, we will consider this issue by developing the study of Lean & Smyth (2014), Ali & Zaman (2017) and Coskun et al (2017) in the framework of ADRL and NARDL models. Also, this study analyzed the asymmetric/non-linear impact of stock market indexes and effective exchange rate on Iran’s housing inflation. Asymmetries imply to both positive and negative changes in the variables.

The results obtained from the ADRL and NARDL models suggest that the existence of cointegration relationship between housing market price and its determinants. From linear model, we found that the exchange rate and stock market price have a positive effect on the real estate inflation in the short run; this relationship is also confirmed in the long run. Other empirical results indicate that the GDP stimulates housing price in both long and short run cases, while FDI and real interest rate have an opposite effect. In addition, the results provided by the asymmetric model lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no co-integration between the variables. In addition, we found that the effect of stock price in the short and long term are asymmetric and there also is an asymmetric long-run effect of real exchange rate on the real estate price.

Finally, to analyze the sensitivity, we entered two explanatory variables of inflation and money supply to the baseline equation. The finding represented that in both linear and nonlinear framework, a positive correlation between these two variables with housing prices have been proved.

This paper aims to investigate asymmetric long-run effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade imbalances with China and to examine if the effects are the same under China’s fixed and managed floating exchange rate systems.

The authors estimate both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model assuming symmetric effect and nonlinear ARDL model assuming asymmetric effect of exchange rate on US trade deficit with China. The authors use data from 1994Q1 to 2005Q2 (under Chinese fixed exchange rate system), from 2005Q3 to 2021Q3 (under Chinese managed floating exchange rate regime), and from 1994Q1 to 2021Q3 (overall data).

The Chow test indicates 2005Q3 is a structure break point. Further, the results suggest the effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade deficit with China are not the same under different exchange rate systems. The asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate does exist. The results also demonstrate the depreciation of Chinese currency will not significantly affect US trade imbalances with China.

Based on the results, the Chinese Government should embrace a more transparent and flexible exchange rate system. It will not significantly hurt Chinese trade balance, but it will help to reduce the tension between the USA and China.

All previous literature (except two papers) related to the effect of Chinese exchange rate on US trade deficit with China assume the effect is symmetric, and all (except one) use data under different Chinese exchange rate systems. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the possible asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate under different Chinese exchange rate regimes.