Search results
1 – 10 of over 3000Asli Leblebicioglu and Victor J. Valcarcel
In seminal work, Den Haan et al. (2007, 2010, 2011) show business loans respond in the opposite direction of what may be intended by monetary policy action in the United States…
Abstract
In seminal work, Den Haan et al. (2007, 2010, 2011) show business loans respond in the opposite direction of what may be intended by monetary policy action in the United States and Canada. Based on various approaches, identification schemes, and samples, we document evidence this loan puzzle is not exclusive to developed economies but is also pervasive in emerging markets. We find business loans generally decline following expansionary monetary policy shocks. A preponderance of statistical and structural evidence indicates important transmissions of this puzzle from the United States to emerging markets.
Details
Keywords
Krittika Banerjee and Ashima Goyal
After the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market…
Abstract
Purpose
After the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extent of contribution of EMEs and AEs, respectively, in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. This paper addresses the gap in a cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls.
Design/methodology/approach
Fixed effects, pooled mean group (Pesaran et al., 1999) and common correlated effects (Pesaran, 2006) estimations are used to examine the relationship. Multiway clustering is taken into account to ensure robust statistical inferences.
Findings
Robust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998–2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs, especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against the US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of the US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long-run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER.
Research limitations/implications
It may be useful for large EMEs to monitor the impact of foreign portfolio flows on short-run deviations in RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against the US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EME RER has implications for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.
Originality/value
To the best of the author's knowledge such a comparative analysis between AE and EME policy variables on RER misalignment has not been done previously.
Details
Keywords
Harpreet Singh Grewal and Pushpa Trivedi
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the event study approach along with OLS and MANOVA to examine the impact.
Findings
The results validate the existence of trilemma in India for the period from October 2008 to December 2017. The results also show that monetary policy independence still exists in India in the wake of greater spillover effects during the Federal Open Market Committee announcement days. The spillover effects on USD-INR exchange rates and capital flows are found to be statistically significant. The MANOVA results show that the trilemma in India is influenced by around 20% by the changes in the US monetary policy.
Originality/value
The above approach of event study combined with MANOVA in this subject area has not been used before to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Further, there are only a few studies that exist on the spillover effects of the US monetary policy actions on the management of trilemma in India.
Details
Keywords
Satyananda Sahoo, Shiv Shankar and Jessica M. Anthony
This chapter assesses the volatility spillover from US monetary policy consequent upon the onset of three episodes primarily engineered by the US Fed, namely quantitative easing…
Abstract
This chapter assesses the volatility spillover from US monetary policy consequent upon the onset of three episodes primarily engineered by the US Fed, namely quantitative easing 1, taper tantrum and balance sheet normalization (BSN) to select emerging market economies (Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) considering around six months pre- and post-occurrence of these events. AR(k)-GARCH (p,q) framework has been used to assess the spillover effect influencing the return of the financial assets and trekking to their volatility segregated as news and persistence effect across markets and economies under study. The authors find that at the overall level, news impact significantly enhanced volatility of bond and currency markets, however, less impact was observed owing to the onset of BSN announcement as markets had factored the news through the well-articulated forward guidance of the Fed.
Details
Keywords
Tuotuo Qi, Tianmei Wang and Jiarui Yan
Understanding health experts' online free knowledge contribution behavior is vital for promoting health knowledge and improving health literacy. This study focuses on the spillover…
Abstract
Purpose
Understanding health experts' online free knowledge contribution behavior is vital for promoting health knowledge and improving health literacy. This study focuses on the spillover effects of different monetary incentive levels on health experts' free knowledge contribution behavior.
Design/methodology/approach
In 2016, Zhihu Live and Zhi Hu were launched as two types of paid knowledge products on Zhihu.com, a hybrid knowledge exchange platform. Focusing on the policy impact of launching Zhihu Live and Zhi Hu, this study uses the difference-in-differences model to analyze the heterogeneous spillover effects of high-yield and low-yield monetary incentives on health experts' free knowledge contribution behavior.
Findings
In the short term, the high-yield monetary incentive has positive spillover effects on the quantity and quality of free knowledge contribution while the low-yield monetary incentive generates opposite effects. In the long term, the effects of the high-yield monetary incentive remain significantly positive. The effect of the low-yield monetary incentive on the quantity of free knowledge contribution remains significantly negative, but its effect on the quality of free knowledge contribution is not significant.
Originality/value
This study combines theories of reciprocity and resource limitation to study the spillover effects of different monetary incentive levels on health experts' online behavior. The short-term and long-term effects of different monetary incentive levels on health experts' online behavior are also explored.
Details
Keywords
Bang Nam Jeon, Hosung Lim and Ji Wu
This chapter examines spillover effects of global monetary shocks on lending by foreign banks in an emerging country, South Korea. Foreign banks play a significant role by…
Abstract
This chapter examines spillover effects of global monetary shocks on lending by foreign banks in an emerging country, South Korea. Foreign banks play a significant role by providing additional domestic credit and foreign currency liquidity and directing international capital flows via the banking sector. Using macroeconomic and banking data for the period of 2000Q1–2016Q2, the authors present evidence that foreign bank branches in Korea have responded in providing their foreign currency loans with one-quarter (three months) time lag to changes in monetary policies in their home countries (mainly, the United States and the Euro area). This short-run spillover effect of monetary policy shocks from the home countries to foreign banks in Korea seems consistent with the main findings from our bank-level data analysis. This chapter also discusses useful policy implications.
Details
Keywords
Ebere Kalu, Chinwe Okoyeuzu, Angela Ukemenam and Augustine Ujunwa
We study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.
Abstract
Purpose
We study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Daily data from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were used in order to accommodate the announcement effects since the US monetary policy normalization announcement was made in May 2013, while the rate hike was in December 2015. The study used the FE, RE and PMG models.
Findings
The results revealed that US 10-year bond yield and Treasury bill rate shocks negatively affect stock prices in Africa. S$P500 shock positively affects African stock prices.The result revealed that the integration of African financial market to the global financial market is a major source of vulnerability. The finding that US Treasury bill rate is a major depressant of the African stock prices reveals the short-termism of foreign polio inflows into African economies.
Originality/value
We provide inexorably insight into the interplay of financial systems globally. It can be useful for the purposes of generalization in developing economies in the shape of African countries. More so, this study could be replicated in another economic bloc or region with the aim of further exposing the far-reaching spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization.
Details
Keywords
Suk-Joong Kim, Linda Lee and Eliza Wu
This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S. NYSE and German DAX listed commercial banks. We find that Fed news has the most influence on both U.S. and German listed bank stocks and an unexpected policy rate increase (decrease) lowers (raises) returns and raises volatility in the majority of cases. On the other hand, ECB news generally increases bank stock volatility in the United States but has little impact within its own domestic banking industry. While our results for the U.S. listed banks confirm that their stock prices are more responsive in bad economic times and also during periods of monetary tightening, we find disparities for German banks suggesting that U.S. and European banking industries respond heterogeneously to monetary policy news but the Global Financial Crisis increased the sensitivity of all banks to monetary policy news.
Details
Keywords
Ahmed Shoukry Rashad and Mahmoud Farghally
The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has…
Abstract
Purpose
The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study.
Design/methodology/approach
For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE.
Findings
The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment.
Originality/value
Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.
Details
Keywords
Ameen Omar Shareef and K.P. Prabheesh
This paper aims to examine the role of foreign banks in transmitting global monetary policy shocks to India. Further, the authors try to explore the international bank lending…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the role of foreign banks in transmitting global monetary policy shocks to India. Further, the authors try to explore the international bank lending channel and analyze the impact of global monetary policy on Indian macroeconomic variables.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a structural break unit root test and structural vector autoregression on monthly data from 1998 to 2018.
Findings
The study finds that the global monetary policy is significantly determining foreign banks’ lending in India; the evidence of a portfolio re-balancing channel in the process of global monetary policy transmission to the Indian economy; the exchange rate is significantly explaining the foreign bank credit dynamism in India; and evidence of international monetary policy spillover to the Indian economy.
Originality/value
This is the first attempt to analyze the role of foreign banks in the transmission of global monetary policy shocks to India, where the literature availability is limited. The finding of ineffective domestic monetary policy on foreign bank lending opens the need for an in-depth and diversified analysis of the role of foreign banks in the transmission of domestic monetary policy.
Details