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Article
Publication date: 17 September 2024

Mustafa Kocoglu, Xuan-Hoa Nghiem and Ehsan Nikbakht

In this study, we aim to investigate the connectedness spillovers among major cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, we also explore to identify factors driving this connectedness…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, we aim to investigate the connectedness spillovers among major cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, we also explore to identify factors driving this connectedness, particularly focusing on the sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies under Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the extent to which cryptocurrency markets serve as a safe haven, hedge, and diversifier from news-based uncertainties.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the connectedness approach following the combination of Ando et al. (2022) QVAR and Baruník and Krehlík's (2018) frequency connectedness methodologies into the framework proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). The data covered from November 10, 2017, to April 21, 2023, and the factors driving cryptocurrency connectedness spillovers are identified and examined. The sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies, concerning Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty, are analyzed. We apply the Wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) method developed by Kumar and Padakandla (2022) to explore the effects of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty on Cryptocurrency market connectedness risk spillovers. Besides, we check and present the robustness of WQC findings with the multivariate stochastic volatility method.

Findings

Our findings indicate that Ethereum and Bitcoin are net shock transmitters at the center of the connectedness return network. Ethereum and Bitcoin hold the highest market capitalization and value in the cryptocurrency market, respectively. This suggests that return shocks originating from these two cryptocurrencies have the most significant impact on other cryptocurrencies. Tether and Monero are the net receivers of return shocks, while Cardano and XRP exhibit weak shock-transmitting characteristics through returns. In terms of return spillovers, Ethereum is the most effective, followed by Bitcoin and Stellar. Further analysis reveals that Twitter economic policy uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty are effective drivers of short-term and total directional spillovers. These uncertainty indices exhibit positive coefficient signs in short-term and total directional spillovers, which turn predominantly negative in different magnitudes and frequency ranges in the long term. In addition, we also document that as the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) value increases, market risk also rises. Also, our empirical findings provide significant evidence of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty that affect short-term market risks. Hence, we state that risk-connectedness spillovers in cryptocurrency markets enclose permanent or temporary shock variations. Besides, findings of the low value of long-term spillovers suggest that risk shocks in cryptocurrency markets are not permanent, indicating long-term changes require careful monitoring and control over market dynamics.

Practical implications

In this study, we find evidence that Twitter's news-based uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty have a significant effect on short-term market risk spillovers. Furthermore, we observe that high cryptocurrency market risk spillovers coincide with periods of events such as the US-China trade tensions in January 2018, the Brexit process in February 2019, and the COVID-19 outbreak in November 2019. Next, we observe a decline in cryptocurrency market risk spillovers after March 2020. The reason for this mitigation of market risk spillover may be that the Fed's quantitative easing signals have initiated a relaxation process in the markets. Because the Fed's signal to fight inflation in March 2022 also coincides with the period when risk spillover increased in crypto markets. Based on this, we present evidence that the FED's communication mechanism with the markets can potentially affect both short- and long-term expectations. In this context, we can say that our hypothesis that uncertainty about the news causes short-term risks to increase has been confirmed. Our findings may have investment policy implications for portfolio managers and investors generally in terms of reducing financial risks.

Originality/value

Our paper contributes to the literature by examining the interconnectedness among major cryptocurrencies and the drivers behind them, particularly focusing on the role of news-based economic uncertainties. More broadly, we calculate the utilization of advanced methodologies and the incorporation of real-time economic uncertainty data to enhance the originality and value of the research, which provides insights into the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2024

Federica Miglietta, Matteo Foglia and Gang-Jin Wang

This study aims to examine information (stock return, volatility and extreme risk) spillovers and interconnectedness within dual-banking systems.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine information (stock return, volatility and extreme risk) spillovers and interconnectedness within dual-banking systems.

Design/methodology/approach

Using multilayer information spillover networks, this paper conduct a deep analysis of contagion dynamics among 24 Islamic and 46 conventional banks from 2006 to 2022.

Findings

The findings show the network’s rapid response to financial shocks. Through cross-sector analysis, this paper identify information spillovers between and within Islamic and conventional banking systems. Furthermore, this research illustrates distinct roles played by Islamic and conventional banks within the multilayer network structure, contingent upon the nature of the financial shock.

Practical implications

Understanding the differential roles of Islamic and conventional banks in information transmission can aid policymakers and financial institutions in devising more effective risk management strategies, thereby enhancing financial stability within dual-banking systems.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by emphasizing the necessity of examining contagion mechanisms beyond traditional single-layer network structures, shedding light on the shadow dynamics of information transmission in dual-banking systems.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 July 2024

Shutian Wang, Yan Lin, Lu Yan and Guoqing Zhu

Online comments significantly impact consumer choice and product sales. Existing research focuses on the direct effects of online comments on product sales, whereas studies on the…

Abstract

Purpose

Online comments significantly impact consumer choice and product sales. Existing research focuses on the direct effects of online comments on product sales, whereas studies on the spillover effects of online comments are relatively limited, especially for high-involvement products. This study explores the impact of online comments of competing products on focal product sales in high-involvement products.

Design/methodology/approach

Data mining techniques are used to collect 72,367 online comments from the Autohome platform, and sentiment analysis algorithms are used to quantify the textual information for subsequent analysis. Specifically, two panel two-way fixed-effects models are constructed to explore the impact of the average valence and quantity of online comments of competing cars on focal car sales, and analyse this impact in terms of heterogeneity across car price levels, while the moderating effect of online comments of competing cars is explored.

Findings

The results show that the average quantity of online comments of competing cars has a significant effect on the sales of the focal car in the overall sample, while the average valence of online comments of competing cars does not have a significant spillover effect. Moreover, the spillover effect varies by car price level. For high-priced cars, the average quantity of online comments of competing cars significantly and negatively affects focal car sales, and the average valence of online comments of competing cars significantly and negatively moderates the effect of the valence of focal car online comments on its sales. For lower-priced cars, online comments of competing cars don’t significantly affect focal car sales.

Originality/value

This study not only enriches the theory of online comments and high-involvement product sales, but also provides reference and guidance for exploring spillover effects of online comments for other products.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 124 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 June 2024

Abigail Naa Korkor Adjei, George Tweneboah and Peterson Owusu Junior

This study aims to investigate the amount and direction of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spillover among six emerging market economies (EMEs), and to also ascertain arguments…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the amount and direction of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spillover among six emerging market economies (EMEs), and to also ascertain arguments on the increased volatilities of uncertainty in most EMEs.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a recent methodology developed by Baruník and Krehlík’s (2018) methodology to measure pairwise, composite and net spillover. This methodology helps investigate the size and direction of EPU spillover in EMEs. The unique feature of this methodology is its ability to capture frequency domain as well as time-frequency dynamics.

Findings

Inter-country static spillover connectedness among the EPU of the selected EMEs show that Korea-EPU is the main transmitter and recipient of spillover shocks among the EMEs across all frequency bands. The findings from this study also show evidence of spillover between EPU, GDP and SPX across the EMEs. The time-varying total spillover index analysis shows evidence of overall connectedness across the selected EMEs. Overall connectedness is highest in the short term. We document that global economic and financial events intensify the volatility of the total spillover across the selected EMEs.

Originality/value

This study extends the literature on studies conducted on EMEs as studies on EPU spillover has mainly focused on advanced economies. To address the limitation of previous empirical studies that were unable to address the amount and direction of spillover from a country to other countries, this study offers new insight on country-specific spillover amounts and causal patterns “to” and “from” the selected EMEs. The findings throw more light on the network connectedness across EMEs and hence aids investors to undertake precise investment decisions and intelligently plan their portfolio diversification strategies. We then introduce two new variables to the analysis and record evidence of high connectedness between EPU, gross domestic product and share price index in all the frequency bands.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 June 2024

Jiahao Zhang and Yu Wei

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the diversification effects of China's national carbon market (CEA) and the EU ETS Phase IV (EUA) within major commodity markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the diversification effects of China's national carbon market (CEA) and the EU ETS Phase IV (EUA) within major commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs the TVP-VAR extension of the spillover index framework to scrutinize the information spillovers among the energy, agriculture, metal, and carbon markets. Subsequently, the study explores practical applications of these findings, emphasizing how investors can harness insights from information spillovers to refine their investment strategies.

Findings

First, the CEA provide ample opportunities for portfolio diversification between the energy, agriculture, and metal markets, a desirable feature that the EUA does not possess. Second, a portfolio comprising exclusively energy and carbon assets often exhibits the highest Sharpe ratio. Nevertheless, the inclusion of agricultural and metal commodities in a carbon-oriented portfolio may potentially compromise its performance. Finally, our results underscore the pronounced advantage of minimum spillover portfolios; particularly those that designed minimize net pairwise volatility spillover, in the context of China's national carbon market.

Originality/value

This study addresses the previously unexplored intersection of information spillovers and portfolio diversification in major commodity markets, with an emphasis on the role of CEA.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2024

Amine Ben Amar, Amir Hasnaoui, Nabil Boubrahimi, Ilham Dkhissi and Makram Bellalah

This study aims to elucidate the volatility spillovers among commodities, equities and socially responsible investments, underpinning their dynamic correlations during the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to elucidate the volatility spillovers among commodities, equities and socially responsible investments, underpinning their dynamic correlations during the economic instability wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated financial crises.

Design/methodology/approach

This research quantitatively analyzes volatility transmission across various financial assets from January 2005 to October 2020 by employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index. The methodology incorporates a temporal examination to capture the evolution of volatility dependencies pre and post the emergence of COVID-19.

Findings

The findings indicate substantial volatility spillovers among the assets in question, aligning with the current financialisation of commodity markets and a rise in financial market integration. These spillovers also show variation over time. Notably, the interconnectedness among the assets intensifies during periods of stress. For instance, the total spillover index significantly surpassed 80% toward the end of January 2020, following the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, the results imply that financial markets appear to be segmented.

Practical implications

The findings afford investors a more comprehensive insight into both the character and scale of the interdependencies across a broad array of financial markets. Indeed, grasping the extent to which financial markets are segmented or integrated during times of stress and stability is crucial for investors. Such understanding is key to more accurately evaluating risks, diversifying investment portfolios and devising more efficient hedging strategies.

Originality/value

This study contributes to financial literature by offering a comprehensive investigation into the spillover effects across a diverse set of asset classes during an unprecedented global health crisis, filling a gap in existing research on market behavior against the backdrop of a pandemic-induced financial crisis.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Jung-Hoon Han, Timothy G. Pollock and Srikanth Paruchuri

Despite growing interest in misconduct spillovers – where unimplicated bystanders’ stock prices, reputations, resources, and opportunities are positively or negatively affected by…

Abstract

Despite growing interest in misconduct spillovers – where unimplicated bystanders’ stock prices, reputations, resources, and opportunities are positively or negatively affected by others’ misconduct – theory about spillovers’ antecedents has largely focused on industry or product similarity, and has used the same characteristics to argue for both positive and negative spillovers. Furthermore, limited research has considered both positive and negative spillovers together, instead focusing on one kind of spillover or the other in isolation, thereby creating a lack of theoretical integration within the literature. In this chapter, we draw on attribution theory and expectancy violations theory to explain when and how misconduct incurs positive and negative spillovers. We argue that a spillover’s valence depends on the locus of attributions made by stakeholders, where the misconduct’s causes are attributed to the perpetrator alone (i.e., an isolated attribution) – resulting in positive spillovers – or the misconduct’s causes are perceived as indicative of a systemic problem shared among a broader set of organizations (i.e., a systemic attribution), leading to negative spillovers. We further suggest that the misconduct’s nature and misconduct prevalence within a perpetrator and among other firms influences stakeholders’ attributions, and ultimately the spillover’s valence. Our theory contributes to the organizational misconduct literature by providing a unifying theoretical framework to understand both positive and negative spillovers.

Details

Organizational Wrongdoing as the “Foundational” Grand Challenge: Consequences and Impact
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-282-7

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 11 August 2005

David B. Audretsch, Max Keilbach and Erik Lehmann

The prevailing theories of entrepreneurship have typically revolved around the ability of individuals to recognize opportunities and act on them by starting new ventures. This has…

Abstract

The prevailing theories of entrepreneurship have typically revolved around the ability of individuals to recognize opportunities and act on them by starting new ventures. This has generated a literature asking why entrepreneurial behavior varies across individuals with different characteristics, while implicitly holding the external context in which the individual finds oneself to be constant. Thus, where the opportunities come from, or the source of entrepreneurial opportunities, are also implicitly taken as given. By contrast, we provide a theory identifying at least one source of entrepreneurial opportunity – new knowledge and ideas that are not fully commercialized by the organization actually investing in the creation of that knowledge. The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship holds individual characteristics as given, but lets the context vary. In particular, high knowledge contexts are found to generate more entrepreneurial opportunities, where the entrepreneur serves as a conduit for knowledge spillovers. By contrast, impoverished knowledge contexts are found to generate fewer entrepreneurial opportunities. By serving as a conduit for knowledge spillovers, entrepreneurship is the missing link between investments in new knowledge and economic growth. Thus, the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship provides not just an explanation of why entrepreneurship has become more prevalent as the factor of knowledge has emerged as a crucial source for comparative advantage, but also why entrepreneurship plays a vital role in generating economic growth. Entrepreneurship is an important mechanism permeating the knowledge filter to facilitate the spillover of knowledge, and ultimately generating economic growth.

Details

University Entrepreneurship and Technology Transfer
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-359-4

Book part
Publication date: 4 October 2018

Pym Manopimoke, Suthawan Prukumpai and Yuthana Sethapramote

This chapter examines dynamic connectedness among emerging Asian equity markets as well as explores their linkages vis-à-vis other major global markets. We find that international…

Abstract

This chapter examines dynamic connectedness among emerging Asian equity markets as well as explores their linkages vis-à-vis other major global markets. We find that international equity markets are tightly integrated. Measuring connectedness based on a generalized Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, more than half of all total forecast error variance in equity return and volatility shocks come from other markets as opposed to country own shocks. When examining the degree of connectedness over time, we find that international stock markets have become increasingly connected, with a gentle upward trend since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) but with a rapid burst during the global financial crisis (GFC). Despite the growing importance of Asian emerging markets in the world economy, we find that their influence on advanced economies are still relatively small, with no significant increase over time. During the past decade, advanced markets have been consistently net transmitters of shocks while emerging Asian markets act as net receivers. Based on the nature of equity shock spillovers, we also find that advanced countries are still tightly connected among themselves while intraregional connectedness within Asia remains strong. By investigating whether uncertainty plays an important role in explaining the degree of stock market connectedness, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from the US is an important source of financial shock spillover for the majority of international equity markets. In contrast, US financial market uncertainty as proxied by the VIX index drives equity market spillovers only among advanced economies.

Details

Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-453-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Constantin Gurdgiev and Barry Trueick

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced…

Abstract

Purpose

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced economies (AEs) to the emerging markets (EMs). This chapter examines the volatility spillovers from the AEs’ equity markets (Japan, the United States and Europe) to the four key EMs, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

Methodology

The period under study, from 2000 through mid-2014, reflects a time of varying regimes in markets volatility, including the periods of dot.com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Great Recession and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical crisis. To estimate volatility cross-linkages between the AEs and BRIC markets, we use multivariate GARCH-BEKK model across a number of specifications.

Findings

We find that, the developed economies weighted return volatility did have a significant impact on volatility across all four of the BRIC economies returns. However, contrary to the consensus view, there was no evidence of volatility spillover from the individual AEs onto BRIC economies with the exception of a spillover from Europe to Brazil. The implied forward-looking expectations for markets volatility had a strong and significant spillover effect onto Brazil, Russia and China, and a weaker effect on India.

Practical Implications

The evidence on volatility spillovers from the AEs markets to EMs puts into question the traditional view of financial and economic systems sustainability in the presence of higher orders of integration of the global monetary and financial systems. Overall, data suggest that we are witnessing less than perfect integration between BRIC economies and AEs markets to-date can offer some volatility hedging opportunities for investors.

Originality

Our chapter contributes to the growing literature on volatility spillovers from the AEs to the EMs in a number of ways. Firstly, we provide a formal analysis of the spillovers to the BRIC economies over the periods of recent crises. Secondly, we make new conclusions concerning longer-term spillovers as opposed to higher frequency volatility contagion covered by the previous literature. Thirdly, we consider a new channel for volatility contagion – the trade-weighted AEs volatility measure.

Details

Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 14000