Search results

The financial system of an economy, especially banking, facilitates efficient allocation of resources from savers to borrowers for productive investments, and thus promotes economic growth. State-wise bank credit in India shows a growing divergence, despite the aim of central planning to reach a degree of convergence in macroeconomic performance over time. This chapter analyzes how diverging bank credit affects macroeconomic performances of the Indian states, through an alternative approach of composite indicators-based rankings of states adopting the methodology of TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) that is used in operations research or more specifically MCDM (multiple criteria decision-making). A composite indicator of the states’ annual macroeconomic performances has been constructed taking indicators of output growth, per capita state domestic product, inflation, and fiscal indicators for years 2006–2018. States are ranked by both macroeconomic performance and bank credit to states, and the correlation between the two indicators, known in the literature to be interlinked,is studied here to understand how the availability of credit or lack of it has influenced State level macroeconomic development in India. The results thus show that wealthier and better performing states continue to attract the larger chunk of bank credit, while weaker states have not been able to catch up. An important policy implication would be to place even more emphasis on higher levels of credit growth for weaker states, particularly infrastructure credit, to achieve a degree of income convergence throughout the Indian economy.

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).

With the growing interconnectedness of global markets brought about by globalization and technological innovation, there is a heightened worldwide risk of money laundering, posing a considerable negative impact on economies and social equality. Therefore, the primary purpose of this research is to examine factors that underpin the pervasiveness of money laundering risk.

By using a cross-section sample of 84 countries, the study uses ordered logit and multinomial logit regression to test and explain the role of main and varied determinants of money laundering risk covering countries’ economic, social, regulatory and corporate environment.

The authors conclude that, overall, the macroeconomic indicators are less relevant in influencing money laundering risk than the other factors adopted from the Basel report. Nonetheless, the volume of exports and the exchange rate were robust in both the ordered and multinomial regression analyses alongside financial secrecy, auditing standards and corporate transparency. While more financial secrecy and a higher volume of exports were found to increase this risk, the other variables showed a negative relationship. The authors further conclude that it is mostly less secrecy, more transparency and better auditing that could gradually transform a high-risk country into medium risk.

This study recommends the implementation of publicly accessible ownership registries to address the issues around secrecy, transparency and auditing misconducts. Additionally, the general strengthening of laws and policies in these three domains is also necessary alongside the application of current technologies, such as machine learning, for the detection of money laundering.

The authors believe this study uses advanced econometric techniques rarely used in the literature on money laundering. Separating the impact of economic and social/regulatory is also valuable

This study aims to examine the short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between All share price index (ASPI), macroeconomic variables and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

Monthly time series data for inflation (CPI), industrial production (IP), an exchange rate (EX), an interest rate (TB), short-term interest rate (CD) and economic crisis were used from 2010 to 2021. The ADF test, the bound testing approach, the CUSUM test and the CUSUMQ test were used in this study.

The findings show a long-run stable relationship between stock price, macroeconomic variables and political crisis (i.e., CPI, IP, ER, TB, CD and economic crisis). The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is at least one cointegrating equation, indicating that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Sri Lanka.

The vector error correction estimates show that the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, indicating that a long-run dynamic relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. In the short term, economic crisis has had a big effect on stock prices suggesting that Sri Lanka’s domestic financial markets are linked to the stability of the country.

This research establishes the links between stock returns, macroeconomic variables and economic crisis. So far, research has been unable to establish the empirical nature of such links. The authors believe that this paper fills that gap.

The study examines how the liquid assets holdings among non-financial Indian firms vary due to tightening monetary policy and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.

The authors analyze 5,640 firms for the period 2011–2021. The authors first estimate India’s monetary policy shocks by decomposing the exogenous shocks from the systematic component of monetary policy changes. The authors then examine the effects of the estimated monetary policy shocks and a range of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty indicators on companies’ cash and bank balances to asset ratios using two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators.

The authors find that monetary policy shocks cause the cross-sectional variances for the firms’ liquidity holdings to increase. In anticipation of macroeconomic volatility, companies respond to these shocks after taking into account all the firm-level information to minimize the opportunity costs of holding extra cash or too few cash balances that can hamper firms’ operations. Furthermore, compared to other shocks, the contribution of inflation-induced shocks is predicted to be the largest in the cross-sectional deviation of the firm’s cash holdings. The authors also find that low-growth, older and financially constrained firms observe lesser heterogeneity in their cash holdings as they tend to hold cash as a precautionary buffer.

The authors’ approach to the analysis is unique in many ways. To address potential transmission bias, the authors use nowcasts and forecasts of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation to generate a series of exogenous monetary policy shocks for identifying unanticipated changes in short-term interest rates. Subsequently, the authors estimate how these shocks affect the cross-sectional deviation of liquid assets. For estimating the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on corporate cash demand, the authors utilize a range of proxies for uncertainty. Unlike previous attempts, the authors offer evidence for a developing and fast-emerging economy.

In addition to leading a new tide of global financial technology, blockchain delivers advantages in terms of risk control compared to traditional financial systems. By exploring the relationship between blockchain technology and macroeconomic uncertainty, this study aims to identify the hedge risk attribute of blockchain technology.

From a data set comprising 6,323 Chinese firms with A-shares listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchanges in 2015–2018, the authors obtain the use of blockchain technology by listed companies on the basis of annual reports, news reports, search engines and prospectuses. These documents are then subjected to text analyses based on computer technology. Cross-sectional and propensity score matching analyses are used to ensure robustness.

The empirical results show that with an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, blockchain technology can potentially enable companies to reduce their systemic risks and enhance their investment efficiency.

This study expands the literature on the application of blockchain technology, offers references for enterprises to address future risks based on specific macroeconomically uncertain environments and provides guidelines for governments to maintain financial market stability.

This paper aims to investigate the effects of cost, revenue and profit efficiency on bank profitability in an emerging economy such as India over the period 1997 to 2017. Additionally, this study examines the effect of efficiency on profitability across different ownership groups for a panel of 70 Indian commercial banks.

In the first stage, using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the efficiency scores of cost, revenue and profit over the examined period. In the second stage, this study uses the two-step system generalized-method of moments dynamic panel approach to investigate the impact of several efficiency measures on bank profitability.

Results estimated through and system generalized-method of moments indicate that a higher level of cost, revenue and efficiency significantly improves India's bank profitability. Regarding ownership groups, this study finds that the public sector banks are most cost-efficient compared to private and foreign banks. Other bank-specific, macroeconomic and institutional variables have played a significant role in determining bank profitability.

The findings of the study extend some important policy implications. In light of the rapid decline in bank profitability, banks should focus on increasing the efficiency of their operations. Improvement in profit, cost and revenue efficiency can ameliorate bank performance significantly. Profit efficiency that takes into account both cost and revenue efficiency should be maintained reasonably to prevent the declining pattern of bank profitability that the industry has witnessed over the years.

To the best of the author's knowledge, this study is a fresh piece of research that fulfils an urgent need of investigating the dynamics between bank efficiency and bank profitability in India. In an emerging economy like India, where the banking sector has witnessed substantial structural transformations over the past two decades, such study demands an immediate empirical investigation.

The purpose of this paper is to construct an index for systemic risk in China.

This paper develops a systemic risk index for China (SRIC) using textual information from 26 leading newspapers in China. Our index measures the systematic risk from 21 topics relating to China’s economy and provides narratives of the sources of systemic risk.

SRIC effectively predicts changes in GDP, aggregate financing to the real economy and the purchasing managers’ index. Moreover, SRIC explains several other commonly used macroeconomic indicators. Our risk measure provides a helpful monitoring tool for policymakers to manage systemic risk.

The paper construct an index of systemic risk based on the information extracted from newspaper articles. This approach is new to the literature.

The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.

The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.

This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.

The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.

The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.

Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment.

The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index.

This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant.

Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.