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This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions: what are the main determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability? How vulnerable are EMDEs to the current COVID-19 shock compared to the global financial crisis (GFC)?

In addition to a descriptive analysis of the determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability, this paper designs two sub-indices of overindebtedness and financial fragility that capture EMDEs’ distinct characteristics. The two sub-indices together illustrate the overall external vulnerability to the current shock.

EMDEs are more vulnerable compared to the GFC era. Current debt threats arise mainly from debt architecture and the domination of volatile debt forms – primarily foreign currency-denominated bonds. Excessive fear of debt-deflation spirals after the GFC prompted EMDEs to expand their growth trajectories through a pattern of cheap private lending, loose measures and unmonitored fiscal expansion.

Conclusive post-crisis data are still unavailable.

EMDEs need to balance between temporary accommodative measures and a post-shock policy mix that prevent a deflation spiral without worsening indebtedness and financial fragility. Moreover, financial prudence in face of growing credit demand is crucial, particularly in light of the monetary expansion and injected liquidity.

The indices offer a framework for examining external vulnerability in EMDEs based on theoretical and historical revisions, IMF benchmarks and EMDEs specific debt characteristics. The indices components can be offered for empirical examination in separate future research once conclusive data become available.

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, trade-openness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI).

To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance.

These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have two-fold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other.

The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

This paper aims to analyse the stabilizing macroeconomic effects of economic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in Spain.

The contribution of the structural shocks that explain the behaviour of the main macroeconomic aggregates during 2020 are estimated, and the effects of economic policies are simulated using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated for the Spanish economy.

The results highlight the importance of supply and demand shocks in explaining the COVID-19 crisis. The annual fall in gross domestic product (GDP) moderates at least by 7.6 points in the most intense period of the crisis, thanks to these stabilizing policies. Finally, the potential effects of Next Generation EU in the Spanish economy are estimated. Assuming that Spain may receive from the EU between 1.5 and 2.25 percentage points (pp) of GDP, activity could increase to between 2 and 3 pp in 2024.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the exercises and findings are original. All these results show the usefulness of a DSGE model, such as the estimated rational expectation model for Spain, as a practical tool for the applied economic analysis, the macroeconomic assessment of economic policies and the understanding of the Spanish economy.

Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India.

The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes.

The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect.

The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy.

The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macro-econometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply.

The purpose of this study is to analyze and forecast the financial sustainability and resilience of commercial banks of Bangladesh in response to the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic.

Eighteen publicly listed commercial banks of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) have been taken as a sample for this study. To measure the riskiness of banks' credit portfolio, nine industries of DSE have been considered to determine probable loss of revenue arising from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Moreover, two commonly used multiple-criteria-decision-making (MCDM) tools namely TOPSIS method and HELLWIG method have been used for analyzing the data.

Based on the performance scores under TOPSIS and HELLWIG method, banks are categorized into three groups (six banks each) namely top resilient, moderate resilient and low resilient. It is found that EBL and DBBL are the most resilient banks, and ONEBANK is the worst resilient bank in Bangladesh in managing the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

This study concludes that banks with low capital adequacy, low liquidity ratio, low performance and higher NPLs are more vulnerable to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The management of commercial banks should emphasize on maintaining higher capital base and reducing default loans.

Resilience of the Bangladeshi banking sector under any adverse economic event has been examined by only using stress testing approach. This study is empirical evidence where both TOPSIS and HELLWIG MCDM methods have been used to make the result conclusive.

In this paper, we view an individual's annuitization decision as an American style call option whose underlying asset is financial wealth, which controls the distance to annuitization. We then derive a certain threshold of wealth over which the individual is optimal to annuitize all of her wealth. We particularly focus on the effects of liquidity constraints on the individual's optimal annuitization decision, concerning their effects on the optimal investment and consumption strategies. We show that the annuitization decision can be significantly affected by the extent to which individual borrowing is constrained. More specifically, the optimal decision is for the individual to annuitize earlier with the tighter liquidity constrains she is exposed to than initially planned. This is particularly relevant to today's pandemic situation especially with the growing concern about cutting credit limits.

This paper aims to critically investigate the liquidity risk management of Islamic banks and develop an alternative regulatory framework appropriate for liquidity management of these banks.

The specific risk profile of an Islamic bank requires developing a new and more efficient regulatory framework, which relies on risk- sharing and symmetric information among parties. The paper makes a differentiation between small local banks and internationally active Islamic banks and proposes to apply liquidity requirements only for internationally active Islamic banks.

A new proposal for the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of Islamic banks is developed in this paper towards mitigating risks and concurrently protecting the interests of investment account holders. Minimum and maximum thresholds are proposed for each liquid asset in this new LCR framework. An alternative liquidity approach is discussed to complement the proposal and several policy options are suggested.

As participation banks are exposed to market liquidity and market risks, more high-quality liquid instruments within a risk-sharing regulatory framework may provide the inner adjustment process through which any mismatch regarding maturity, risk, value or linkage with the real economy is corrected systematically. It offers policy implications for regulators, supervisors and international organizations.

This paper aims to develop a credit-risk model in which firms face rollover risk, and the markets for defaulted assets are segmented due to entry costs. The paper shows that reducing the entry costs in this economy may decrease the total surplus of the economy. This outcome can arise because when market barriers are lifted, the gap between the liquidation prices across the markets will shrink, but then the market that would experience a price drop may face more bankruptcies because the rollover risk will increase in that market. The paper describes under which condition such an intervention policy improves or hurts the total surplus.

While previous literature has emphasized the causal relationship from liquidity to capital, the impact of interbank network characteristics on this relationship remains unclear. By applying the interbank network simulation, this paper aims to examine whether the causal relationship between capital and liquidity is influenced by bank positions in the interbank network.

Using the sample of 506 commercial banks established in 28 European countries from 2001 to 2013, the author adopts the generalized method of moments simultaneous equations approach to investigate whether interbank network characteristics influence the causal relationship between bank capital and liquidity.

Drawing on a sample of commercial banks from 28 European countries, this study suggests that the interconnectedness of banks within interbank loan and deposit networks shapes their decisions to establish higher or lower regulatory capital ratios in the face of increased illiquidity. These findings support the implementation of minimum liquidity ratios alongside capital ratios, as advocated by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation and Supervision. In addition, the paper underscores the importance of regulatory authorities considering the network characteristics of banks in their oversight and decision-making processes.

This paper makes a valuable contribution to the current body of research by examining the influence of interbank network characteristics on the relationship between a bank’s capital and liquidity. The findings provide insights that add to the ongoing discourse on regulatory frameworks and emphasize the necessity of customized approaches that consider the varied interbank network positions of banks.