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Book part
Publication date: 15 July 2017

Farzad Taheripour and Wallace E. Tyner

The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two…

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two studies – one with United States only ban and one with a global ban. We used a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), for the analysis. This model has been used in hundreds of published papers on trade, energy, land use, and environmental issues. Our use of the model was to estimate the crop yield benefits for the major GMO crops, and then to convert this to a loss if the GMO traits were banned. We then shocked the GTAP model with the yield losses and estimate economic, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts. We found that losing the GM technology would cause commodity and food prices to increase and also bring about a significant increase in GHG emissions. The increase in emissions is caused by the need to convert forest and pasture to compensate for the lost production. Another interesting conclusion of the global ban study is that economic well-being for the United States, the world’s largest GMO user, actually increases with a ban. Many regions that ban or use little GMO varieties like the European Union, India, China, and Japan all see economic well-being decrease. These counterintuitive results are driven mainly by trade patterns. Therefore GMO technology helps agriculture reduce its carbon footprint. Without this technology, agricultural land-use GHG emissions increase as do food prices. Some groups would like to see GMOs banned and also see GHG emissions fall. You cannot have it both ways.

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World Agricultural Resources and Food Security
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-515-3

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Article
Publication date: 8 February 2021

Bryane Michael and Simon Zhao

By modelling China’s property price changes and their effect on GDP, this study aims to develop a more general model of the costs and benefits driving price bubbles.

Abstract

Purpose

By modelling China’s property price changes and their effect on GDP, this study aims to develop a more general model of the costs and benefits driving price bubbles.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a five-sector dynamic model (using data from China and seven other comparator jurisdictions), resulting in a bubble risk factor. The authors then correlate this risk factor with changes in property prices and resulting changes in GDP.

Findings

The authors find that economic structures (the way GDP, property prices and other variables change relative to each other) can change during/after a financial crisis. The authors also find that price disequilibria can help predict the risk of a property price fall – which thus reverberates into GDP change.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no dynamic models of price bubbles exist (though many exist of financial bubbles). The authors provide both theoretical novelties (such as providing a model of risk using non-linear differential equations) and practical ones (showing when we can expect Chinese GDP to fall).

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International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Book part
Publication date: 17 October 2014

Philip Z. Maymin

Economic models based on simple rules can result in complex and unpredictable deterministic dynamics with emergent features similar to those of actual economies. I present…

Abstract

Economic models based on simple rules can result in complex and unpredictable deterministic dynamics with emergent features similar to those of actual economies. I present several such models ranging from cellular automaton and register machines to quantum computation. The additional benefit of such models is displayed by extending them to model political entanglement to determine the impact of allowing majority redistributive voting. In general, the insights obtained from simulating the computations of simple rules can serve as an additional way to study economics, complementing equilibrium, literary, experimental, and empirical approaches. I culminate by presenting a minimal model of economic complexity that generates complex economic growth and diminishing poverty without any parameter fitting, and which, when modified to incorporate political entanglement, generates volatile stagnation and greater poverty.

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Entangled Political Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-102-2

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Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2015

Firano Zakaria

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of…

Abstract

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of the systemic. From this point of view, two approaches were used. First is based on the estimate on value at risk conditional allowing to measure the systemic importance of each banking institution. In addition, the second approach uses the heteroscedasticity models in order to consider the conditional correlations, making it possible, to measure the dependence between the Moroccan banks and with the whole of the financial system. The results obtained with through these two approaches confirm that ATW, BMCI and the BMCE are the most systemic banks in Moroccan banking system and who can initiate a systemic crisis. On another register and by using the conditional correlations of each bank we built an index of systemic risk. Moreover, a macrofinancial model was developed, connecting the index of the systemic risk and the principal macroeconomic variables. This model affirmed that the contagion dimension of systemic risk is procyclical.

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Overlaps of Private Sector with Public Sector around the Globe
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-956-1

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Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Tonmoy Chatterjee

Evidences show that the annual total of all incidents along with the number of bombing incidents steadily rose through the late 1970s and began a steady decline in the…

Abstract

Evidences show that the annual total of all incidents along with the number of bombing incidents steadily rose through the late 1970s and began a steady decline in the early 1990s. Before the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, the motivation of transnational terrorism was primarily nationalism, separatism, Marxist ideology, and nihilism. The jump in the number of incidents in the early 1980s corresponded to the rise of religious-based fundamentalism. The downward trend in the early 1990s is attributed to the demise of the Soviet Union. A surge in religious fervor and the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan account for the prevailing high levels of transnational terrorism. Terrorism surely affects the economy as a whole both in terms of domestic and international trade-related parameters. In this chapter we have used a general equilibrium trade model with special emphasis on terrorism activities to capture the impact of international trade on the production system of the assumed stylized developing economy. In this connection, the presence of defense sector dualism to control or defend the domestic economy has been considered from the perspective of terrorism attack, thereby helping to relate defense, terrorism, and trade within a single framework. Apart from these, the terrorism augmented welfare aspect of the said developing economy has also been introduced in this chapter. Overall, we have claimed that the gains from trade in the presence of terrorism augmented externality exclusively depend on the pattern of trade.

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The Impact of Global Terrorism on Economic and Political Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78769-919-9

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Article
Publication date: 8 December 2020

Aleksandar Vasilev

The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as…

Abstract

Purpose

The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as well as rigid wages a la Calvo (1983) in the labor market.

Design/methodology/approach

This specification with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018), allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables and those characterizing the labor market in particular.

Findings

As nominal wage frictions are incorporated, the variables become more persistent, especially output, capital stock, investment and consumption, which help the model match data better, as compared to a setup without rigidities.

Originality/value

The computational experiments performed in this paper suggest that wage rigidities are a quantitatively important model ingredient, which should be taken into consideration when analyzing the effects of different policies in Bulgaria, which is a novel result.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

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Content available
Article
Publication date: 2 December 2020

Tran Ngoc Tam, Nguyen Minh Hai and Bantaojai Thanatporn

The purpose of this paper is to study the Hölder calmness of solutions to equilibrium problems and apply it to economics.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the Hölder calmness of solutions to equilibrium problems and apply it to economics.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors obtain the Hölder calmness by using an effective approach. More precisely, under the key assumption of strong convexity, sufficient conditions for the Hölder continuity of solution maps to equilibrium problems are established.

Findings

A new result in stability analysis for equilibrium problems and applications in economics is archived.

Originality/value

The authors confirm that the paper has not been published previously, is not under consideration for publication elsewhere and is not being simultaneously submitted elsewhere.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

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Article
Publication date: 4 April 2016

Phouphet Kyophilavong

This study aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Laos.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Laos.

Design/methodology/approach

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Laos’ economy by examining this sector’s increase in both stock and the productivity of capital.

Findings

It was found that higher capital stock and productivity lead to increased value added, production, exports and investment in the mining sector. These increases result in higher real gross domestic product, exports and investment. Unfortunately, the effects from the associated Dutch disease negatively impact real production and value added in the agriculture and industry. Suitable macroeconomic management and prudent administration of the windfall income from mining are therefore important.

Practical implications

The finding is important for policymakers to implement policy to deal with the negative impact of mining booms.

Originality/value

It is the first study to attempt to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Lao economy using the CGE model. Second, we also provide recommendation to cope with the negative impact from mining booms which provide important implications for other developing countries that face the negative impact from mining booms.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

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Article
Publication date: 13 August 2018

Aleksandar Vasilev

The purpose of this paper is to show a standard RBC model, when augmented with a VAT evasion channel, where evasion depends on the consumption tax rate, can produce a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to show a standard RBC model, when augmented with a VAT evasion channel, where evasion depends on the consumption tax rate, can produce a hump-shaped consumption-Laffer curve.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is in the spirit of modern quantitative macroeconomic literature.

Findings

The model with VAT evasion can generate a peaking consumption tax revenue curve, which is a little discussed result in the taxation literature.

Research limitations/implications

The paper contributes to the public finance literature by providing evidence for the importance of the evasion mechanism, while at the same time adding to the debate about the existence of a peak tax rate for consumption tax revenue.

Practical implications

Contrary to popular belief, raising VAT rate as a cheap way (being a tax on demand) to finance government expenditure, is still not a free lunch, and raising the rate, especially in a country with substantial VAT evasion, quickly leads to a drop in the revenue associated with that category.

Originality/value

This is the first study that provides a tractable model of VAT evasion, and a setup where consumption tax revenue curve is peaking.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2018

Syed Tehseen Jawaid and Abdul Waheed

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries.

Design/methodology/approach

These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities.

Findings

Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan.

Originality/value

In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

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