Search results

The relevance of present consumption bias on personal finance has been confirmed in several studies and has important theoretical and practical implications. It has important, measurable implications when analyzing commitment or self-control, adherence to healthy habits (e.g. exercising or dieting), procrastination tendencies or savings. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to our understanding of these issues by postulating a model of income uncertainty within a hyperbolic discounting framework that measures the cost of financial intertemporal inconsistencies related to this bias. The emphasis is on the analysis of this cost. We also propose experimental designs and consistent estimation methods, as well as agent-based modelling extensions.

The authors develop a finite-horizon model with hyperbolic preferences. Individuals have a present bias distinct from their discount rate so their choices face intertemporal inconsistencies. The authors further extend the analysis with uncertainty about future incomes. Specifically, individuals live for three periods, and the authors find the optimal consumption levels in the perfect-information benchmark by backward induction. They then proceed to add biases and uncertainty to characterize their implications and measure the costs of the intertemporal inconsistencies they cause.

The authors measure how an agent's utility is greater when they “tie their hands” than when they are free to re-evaluate and change their consumption schedule. This “cost of being vulnerable to falling into temptation” only depends (increasingly) on the measure of the present bias and (decreasingly) on the discount factor. They analyze the varying effects on utility and consumption of changes in impatience and optimism. They conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications; they also propose agent-based simulations, as well as empirical and experimental designs, to further test the relevance and applications of the results.

This model has important, measurable implications when analyzing commitment or self-control, adherence to healthy habits (e.g. exercising or dieting), procrastination tendencies or savings.

The results enhance the estimation of the costs of present biases such that employers can better identify the incentives required to acquire and retain human capital. The authors provide evidence that workers are vulnerable to contract renegotiations and about the need for a regulator that restores ex-ante efficiency. Similarly, in the private sector, firms could recognize the postulated consumer profiles and focus their resources on anxious, too-optimistic or potentially addictive consumers; this, again, provides some justification about the need for a regulator.

In traditional exponential discounting, the marginal rate of substitution of consumption between two points depends only on their distance; thus, it allows none of the intertemporal inconsistencies we often observe in real life. Therefore, hyperbolic discounting better fits the data. The authors model choice under uncertainty and focus on the costs caused when present biases (ex-post) push behaviour away from ex-ante optimality. They conclude by proposing experimental designs to further enhance the estimation and implications of these costs. The postulated refinements have the potential to improve previous analyses on commitment devices and commitment-related regulation.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the main measures of inconsistency in the context of intertemporal choice and to identify the relationships between them (more specifically, the measures by Prelec, Takahashi and Rohde). In effect, Thaler (1981), awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics 2017, argued that when a preference must be expressed between two reward options, some people may reverse their original preference when a significant delay is introduced before the reward is to be received. This anomaly is known as inconsistency in intertemporal choice.

After a revision of the existing literature and by using the methods from mathematical calculus, the authors have derived the logical relationships between the measures presented in this paper.

The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of a novel parameter, the so-defined ratio of two instantaneous discount rates, which the authors call the instantaneous variation rate, which allows relating some other measures of inconsistency, namely the measures described by Prelec and Rohde. A limitation of this paper is the unavailability of empirical information about the inconsistency measures needed to substantiate the theoretical findings. Indeed, this paper has social implications because recent behavioral and neuroeconomic studies have shown the existence of preference reversal or time inconsistency in other areas. The authors’ models can be implemented in these fields in order to better analyze the situations of inconsistency.

The originality of this paper lies in the authors’ aim to bring some order to the proposed measures of inconsistency which have arisen as a result of the different approaches adopted.

The main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used in the field of intertemporal choice.

After an in-depth revision of the existing literature and unlike most studies which only focus on exponential and hyperbolic discounting, this manuscript compares the adjustment of data to six different discount functions. To do this, the analysis is based on the usual statistical methods, and the non-linear least squares regression, through the algorithm of Gauss-Newton, in order to estimate the models' parameters; finally, the AICc method is used to compare the significance of the six proposed models.

This paper shows that the so-called q-exponential function deformed by the amount is the model which better explains the individuals' preferences on both delayed gains and losses. To the extent of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that a function different from the general hyperbola fits better to the individuals' preferences.

This paper contributes to the search of an alternative model able to explain the individual behavior in a more realistic way.

In the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.

The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.

The integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.

The close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.

This paper aims to provide an overall review and assessment of the virtues and flaws of decentralized self-regulated markets, discussing in particular the extent to which deceiving attitudes by some market participants might be potentially diluted and contradicted.

To approach deception and morality in markets, the paper follows two paths. First, the relevant recent literature on the theme is reviewed, examined and debated, and second, one constructs a simulation model equipped with the required elements to discuss the immediate and long-term impacts of deceiving behaviour over market outcomes.

The discussion and the model allow for highlighting the main drivers of the purchasing decisions of consumers and for evaluating how they react to manipulating behaviour by firms in the market. Agents pursuing short-run gains through unfair market practices are likely to be punished as fooled agents spread the word about the malpractices they were allegedly subject to.

Markets are complex entities, where large numbers of individual agents typically establish local and direct contact with one another. These agents differ in many respects and interact in unpredictable ways. Assembling a concise model capable of addressing such complexity is a difficult task. The framework proposed in this paper points in the intended direction.

The debate in this paper contributes to a stronger perception on the mechanisms that attribute robustness and vitality to markets.

This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, private and government consumption and nominal interest rates.

The study employs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation from 2000Q1 to 2022Q4, capturing rational and behavioral behaviors with adjustments for Brazilian economic idiosyncrasies. Impulse response functions (IRF) assess the dynamic effects of policy shocks, providing a comparative analysis of the two frameworks.

Behavioral agents show greater initial sensitivity to policy shocks, causing more pronounced fluctuations in GDP, inflation and private consumption compared to rational agents. Over time, the behavioral approach leads to a more robust recovery, while the rational approach results in a quicker return to equilibrium but less pronounced long-term recovery. The study also finds fiscal policy can partially offset the negative impacts of monetary tightening, with a more delayed effect in the behavioral model.

This paper provides insights into the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies under different agent expectations, emphasizing the importance of incorporating behavioral elements into macroeconomic models to better capture policy dynamics in emerging markets.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.

To suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject.

Therefore, this paper proposes a lesson, which consists of three parts, to help undergraduates better understand the subject: (1) a grading exercise to bring the topic closer to students’ lives; (2) a Keynesian and an optimal consumption function, followed by an example based on an unemployment insurance policy; and (3) two optional topics consisting of extensions of the optimal consumption function and some empirical results related to the Lucas Critique.

The Lucas Critique influenced the evolution of research in macroeconomics, but it is not easily grasped in a classroom.