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1 – 10 of 282The purpose of this paper is to examine the applicability of the alternative way of discounting, such as the hyperbolic discount method, for the economic feasibility test on Free…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the applicability of the alternative way of discounting, such as the hyperbolic discount method, for the economic feasibility test on Free Trade Zone development project that needs intergenerational analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
To analyze the effects of applying alternative discounting method in the cost-benefit analysis, this paper uses the hyperbolic discount method and HM-Treasury’s method (Britain), as well as the traditional exponential discount method. Also, this study uses benefit and cost data from the actual feasibility test of the Free Trade Zone development project in Korea, to obtain better policy implication.
Findings
For the case of long-term analysis, using the exponential discounting method in the benefit-cost analysis could not give us balanced analytic results, because it discounts too much on future generation’s benefits. In contrast, if we use the hyperbolic discounting method, we could obtain better balanced results since it can control the generational effects. This paper also finds that for the results to be valid, the analysis period must be expanded long enough (a minimum of 100 years).
Originality/value
The major findings of this paper confirm the results of previous studies regarding long-term benefit-cost analysis. Also, the result of this paper is properly compatible with the findings of behavioral economics, such as the time inconsistency of preferences. However, no research has been done with the proper length of analytic periods for using hyperbolic discounting yet. To examine this matter, this paper performs benefit-cost analysis with actual data from the feasibility studies in Korea. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to find the proper length of analytic periods that can be compatible with the hyperbolic discount method.
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Rayenda Brahmana, Widyana Verawaty Siregar and Arnawan Hsb
Using the hyperbolic discounting approach in qualitative manner, the purpose of this paper is to explore the linkage of the time preference bias towards the too early execution of…
Abstract
Purpose
Using the hyperbolic discounting approach in qualitative manner, the purpose of this paper is to explore the linkage of the time preference bias towards the too early execution of strategic focused planning. The paper also investigates the role of psychological bias in explaining the early execution.
Design/methodology/approach
This research use qualitative methods to explore the role of hyperbolic discounting in driving the psychological bias towards too early strategic scenario planning, and its rationalization. The authors conducted a face‐to‐face survey going door‐to‐door of the small to medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). The samples in this research are Indonesian SMEs from the northern part of Sumatra.
Findings
This research found most of the SMEs' managers are time preference biased due to hyperbolic discounting. This hyperbolic discounting awoke manager's psychological bias and resulted in too early decision making. This psychological bias might be due to prospect theory, or the representative effect, or framing bias, or the adaptive bias.
Research limitations/implications
The sample is only taken from Northern part of Indonesia. To have a robust generalization, the research should be conducted in the whole of Indonesia.
Practical implications
This paper can be used by practitioners to understand their behaviour towards strategic decision making. Further, practitioners will know if their time preference bias will not generate better result.
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Kesha K. Coker, Deepa Pillai and Siva K. Balasubramanian
Rewards from sales promotions may be either immediate (e.g. instant savings, coupons, instant rebates) or delayed (e.g. rebates, refunds). The latter type is of interest in this…
Abstract
Purpose
Rewards from sales promotions may be either immediate (e.g. instant savings, coupons, instant rebates) or delayed (e.g. rebates, refunds). The latter type is of interest in this study. The purpose of this paper is to present the hyperbolic discounting framework as an explanation for how consumers delay‐discount rewards, and test whether this holds for both high‐price and low‐price product categories.
Design/methodology/approach
Data were collected by administering two online surveys to respondents. One survey presented choice scenarios between sales promotion formats for a high‐priced product (a laptop, n=154) and the other for a low‐priced product (a cell phone, n=98). Hyperbolic and exponential functions were then fitted to the data.
Findings
The hyperbolic function had a better fit than the exponential function for the low‐priced product. However, this effect was not evident in the case of the high‐priced product; no significant difference was found between the functions. The rate of discounting was greater for the high‐priced product than for the low‐priced product. Thus, for low‐priced products, rather than discount a reward rationally, consumers tend to discount the value of the reward at a decreasing rate.
Originality/value
This study addresses delay discounting in the context of a typical consumer buying situation. It also addresses the possibility of consumers applying different forms of discounting to products at different price levels and tests for the same. The results are of considerable significance for marketers wishing to offer price discounts to consumers. For low‐priced products, marketers seem to have more flexibility in delaying the reward, since the rate of discounting decreases for longer delay periods. At the same time, the discount rate for high‐priced products is higher than that for low‐priced products, hence delay periods may have a more critical role as discounted values fall steeply with an increase in delay to reward.
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Isabel María Parra Oller, Salvador Cruz Rambaud and María del Carmen Valls Martínez
The main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used in the field of intertemporal choice.
Design/methodology/approach
After an in-depth revision of the existing literature and unlike most studies which only focus on exponential and hyperbolic discounting, this manuscript compares the adjustment of data to six different discount functions. To do this, the analysis is based on the usual statistical methods, and the non-linear least squares regression, through the algorithm of Gauss-Newton, in order to estimate the models' parameters; finally, the AICc method is used to compare the significance of the six proposed models.
Findings
This paper shows that the so-called q-exponential function deformed by the amount is the model which better explains the individuals' preferences on both delayed gains and losses. To the extent of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that a function different from the general hyperbola fits better to the individuals' preferences.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the search of an alternative model able to explain the individual behavior in a more realistic way.
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The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.
Design/methodology/approach
In a series of thought investments, $1 invested in an investment fund is mentally projected forward in time and then discounted back to the present – with no objective time passing. The thought investments feature symmetric valuation (in which discount rates exactly match projection rates) and asymmetric valuation (in which discount rates and projection rates happen to differ). They show how asymmetric valuation can result in differences between the current personal value and market value of an investment and, by way of real-world illustration, between a closed-end investment fund's net asset value and its market value. The authors explore possible reasons for asymmetric valuation.
Findings
Thought investments illustrating mental time travel can be used to help understand both financial investment valuation generally and, more specifically, established explanations of the closed-end investment fund puzzle. The authors show how different expectations, different perceptions of time and risk and different risk and time preferences might help determine value.
Originality/value
There are vast literatures on prospection, discounting and future-orientated or intertemporal decision-making. The authors’ innovation is to illustrate how these mental activities might combine to facilitate financial investment valuation. In particular, the authors show that a low personal discount rate could be a consequence of a shortened perception of future time and vice versa.
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This chapter conducts a systematic comparison of behavioral economics’s challenges to the standard accounts of economic behaviors within three dimensions: under risk, over time…
Abstract
This chapter conducts a systematic comparison of behavioral economics’s challenges to the standard accounts of economic behaviors within three dimensions: under risk, over time, and regarding other people. A new perspective on two underlying methodological issues, i.e., inter-disciplinarity and the positive/normative distinction, is proposed by following the entanglement thesis of Hilary Putnam, Vivian Walsh, and Amartya Sen. This thesis holds that facts, values, and conventions have inter-dependent meanings in science which can be understood by scrutinizing formal and ordinary language uses. The goal is to provide a broad and self-contained picture of how behavioral economics is changing the mainstream of economics.
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Maneesha Singh and Tanuj Nandan
This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis on “intertemporal choice” behavior of individuals from journals in the Scopus database between 1957 and 2023. The research…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis on “intertemporal choice” behavior of individuals from journals in the Scopus database between 1957 and 2023. The research covered the data on the said topic since it first originated in the Scopus database and carried out performance analysis and content analysis of papers in the business management and finance disciplines.
Design/methodology/approach
Bibliometric analysis, including science mapping and performance analysis, followed by content analysis of the papers of identified clusters, was conducted. Three clusters based on cocitation analysis and six themes (three major and three minor) were identified using the bibliometrix package in R studio. The content analysis of the papers in these clusters and themes have been discussed in this study, along with the thematic evolution of intertemporal choice research over the period of time, paving a way for future research studies.
Findings
The review unpacks publication and citation trends of intertemporal choice behavior, the most significant authors, journals and papers along with the major clusters and themes of research based on cocitation and degree of centrality and relevance, respectively, i.e. discounting experiments and intertemporal choice, impulsivity, risk preference, time-inconsistent preference, etc.
Originality/value
Over the past years, the research on “intertemporal choice” has flourished because of the increasing interest of researchers and scholars from different fields and the dynamic and pervasive nature of this topic. The well-developed and scattered body of knowledge on intertemporal choice has led to the need of applying a bibliometric analysis in the intertemporal choice literature.
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Isabel González Fernández and Salvador Cruz Rambaud
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the main measures of inconsistency in the context of intertemporal choice and to identify the relationships between them (more…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the main measures of inconsistency in the context of intertemporal choice and to identify the relationships between them (more specifically, the measures by Prelec, Takahashi and Rohde). In effect, Thaler (1981), awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics 2017, argued that when a preference must be expressed between two reward options, some people may reverse their original preference when a significant delay is introduced before the reward is to be received. This anomaly is known as inconsistency in intertemporal choice.
Design/methodology/approach
After a revision of the existing literature and by using the methods from mathematical calculus, the authors have derived the logical relationships between the measures presented in this paper.
Findings
The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of a novel parameter, the so-defined ratio of two instantaneous discount rates, which the authors call the instantaneous variation rate, which allows relating some other measures of inconsistency, namely the measures described by Prelec and Rohde. A limitation of this paper is the unavailability of empirical information about the inconsistency measures needed to substantiate the theoretical findings. Indeed, this paper has social implications because recent behavioral and neuroeconomic studies have shown the existence of preference reversal or time inconsistency in other areas. The authors’ models can be implemented in these fields in order to better analyze the situations of inconsistency.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper lies in the authors’ aim to bring some order to the proposed measures of inconsistency which have arisen as a result of the different approaches adopted.
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Bertram I. Steininger, Martin Groth and Brigitte L. Weber
We investigate causes for the cost overrun and delay of the railway project Stuttgart 21. Besides, we try to forecast the actual costs and completion date at an early stage.
Abstract
Purpose
We investigate causes for the cost overrun and delay of the railway project Stuttgart 21. Besides, we try to forecast the actual costs and completion date at an early stage.
Design/methodology/approach
The results of exploratory research show the causes for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21; we compare our findings with other railway projects. To estimate the costs at an early stage, the reference class forecasting (RCF) model is applied; to estimate the time, we apply an OLS regression.
Findings
We find that the following causes are relevant for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21: scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests and lack of citizens' participation. The current estimated costs are within our 95% confidence interval based on RCF; our time forecast underestimates or substantially overestimates the duration actually required.
Research limitations/implications
A limitation of our approach is the low number of comparable projects which are available.
Practical implications
The use of hyperbolic function or stepwise exponential discount function can help to give a clearer picture of the costs and benefits. The straightforward use of the RFC for costs and OLS for time should motivate more decision-makers to estimate the actual costs and time which are necessary in the light of the rising demand for democratic participation amongst citizens.
Social implications
More realistic estimates can help to reduce the significant distortion at the beginning of infrastructure projects.
Originality/value
We are among the first who use the RCF to estimate the costs in Germany. Furthermore, the hyperbolic discounting function is added as a further theoretical explanation for cost underestimation.
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