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1 – 10 of over 2000Berna Keskin, Richard Dunning and Craig Watkins
This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region.
Findings
The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values.
Research limitations/implications
The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets.
Practical implications
The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments.
Social implications
The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk.
Originality/value
The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.
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Alfred Larm Teye, Michel Knoppel, Jan de Haan and Marja G. Elsinga
This paper aims to examine the existence of the ripple effect from Amsterdam to the housing markets of other regions in The Netherlands. It identifies which regional housing…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the existence of the ripple effect from Amsterdam to the housing markets of other regions in The Netherlands. It identifies which regional housing markets are influenced by house price movements in Amsterdam.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper considers the ripple effect as a lead-lag effect and a long-run convergence between the Amsterdam and regional house prices. Using the real house prices for second-hand owner-occupied dwellings from 1995q1 to 2016q2, the paper adopts the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach to study the lead-lag effects. It uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL)-Bounds cointegration techniques to examine the long-run convergence between the regional and the Amsterdam house prices. The paper controls for house price fundamentals to eliminate possible confounding effects of common shocks.
Findings
The cumulative evidence suggests that Amsterdam house prices have influence on (or ripple to) all the Dutch regions, except one. In particular, the Granger Causality test concludes that a lead-lag effect of house prices exists from Amsterdam to all the regions, apart from Zeeland. The cointegration test shows evidence of a long-convergence between Amsterdam house prices and six regions: Friesland, Groningen, Limburg, Overijssel, Utrecht and Zuid-Holland.
Research limitations/implications
The paper adopts an econometric approach to examine the Amsterdam ripple effect. More sophisticated economic models that consider the asymmetric properties of house prices and the patterns of interregional socio-economic activities into the modelling approach are recommended for further investigation.
Originality/value
This paper focuses on The Netherlands for which the ripple effect has not yet been researched to the authors’ knowledge. Given the substantial wealth effects associated with house price changes that may shape economic activity through consumption, evidence for ripples may be helpful to policy makers for uncovering trends that have implications for the entire economy. Moreover, the analysis controls for common house price fundamentals which most previous papers ignored.
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Merve Koçak Güngör and Fatih Terzi
As an important indicator of the quality of life of individuals, residential environments are continuing to evolve, due to the rapidly changing production–consumption relations…
Abstract
Purpose
As an important indicator of the quality of life of individuals, residential environments are continuing to evolve, due to the rapidly changing production–consumption relations. However, in this evolving process, the effect of the differentiated residential environments on the individuals' residential satisfaction remains unclear. This paper aims to measure the effects of the varying residential environments on the overall quality of urban life (QoUL) in Kayseri, one of the most developed cities in Central Anatolia.
Design/methodology/approach
It is based on empirical data on the quality of life in the different residential environments of Kayseri. The research method used stratified purposeful sampling, and the household survey data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple regression and ANOVA statistical methods.
Findings
The most influential factors on the overall QoUL of individuals living in different Kayseri residential neighborhoods were satisfaction with neighborhood and city-level urban services, neighborhood relations and belonging factor groups. The critical finding obtained in this study is that residential satisfaction in low-rise and compact form housing areas in Kayseri is higher compared to residential satisfaction in high-rise neighborhoods. This result reveals that the high-rise building typology that is dominant in Turkey's big cities should be seriously questioned, and urban development policies should be re-evaluated.
Research limitations/implications
The study was designed to produce baseline data so that future changes in residential conditions as perceived by the residents of Kayseri could be monitored to support decisions for residential areas.
Originality/value
Comparative case studies, particularly on low-rise versus high-rise environments, are scarce. As a result, this research contributes to the field of comparative studies on residential environments.
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Sang Won Lee, Su Bok Ryu, Tae Young Kim and Jin Q. Jeon
This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the…
Abstract
This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.
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Richard Haigh, Siri Hettige, Maheshika Sakalasuriya, G. Vickneswaran and Lasantha Namal Weerasena
The purpose of this paper is to critically analyse the role of housing reconstruction projects in post conflict and post tsunami Sri Lanka, and to discuss their implications on…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to critically analyse the role of housing reconstruction projects in post conflict and post tsunami Sri Lanka, and to discuss their implications on conflict prevention.
Design/methodology/approach
Using four housing reconstruction projects in Batticaloa, Kilinochchi and Jaffna Districts, Sri Lanka, as case studies, and a novel methodological framework, the study explores the causal relations among the independent variables associated with housing reconstruction and dependent variables related to conflict prevention. The data, gathered from interviews and project reports, were analysed using propositions from a literature review, adopting a thematic analytical approach.
Findings
This study finds that reconstruction has created new forms of conflicts and tensions for the people who came to live in the newly constructed houses. The hostile relations that existed among different ethnic groups during the conflict were continued, and to some extent, exacerbated by the reconstruction undertaken after the war.
Practical implications
The study identifies causal relations among the independent variables associated with housing reconstruction and dependent variables related to conflict prevention, which can be used to inform physical reconstruction programmes after conflict.
Originality/value
The research presents a novel methodological framework. The results reveal concerns in housing and infrastructure development that have implications for future research and practice in post conflict environments.
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Edward C.Y. Yiu, Kelvin S.K. Wong, Hao Wu and William K.S. Cheung
Fredrik Brunes, Cecilia Hermansson, Han-Suck Song and Mats Wilhelmsson
This paper aims to analyze how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects in Stockholm. If there is an impact on property prices, the authors endeavor to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects in Stockholm. If there is an impact on property prices, the authors endeavor to investigate whether the effects vary among different areas within the municipality, for different groups of inhabitants and for different types of housing (i.e. public versus private housing).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a difference-in-difference specification in a hedonic model, and the sample consists of more than 90,000 observations over the period 2005-2013.
Findings
The results are robust and indicate that house prices in nearby areas increase following the completion of infill development. The results also indicate that infill development has a positive spillover effect on nearby dwelling prices only in areas with lower incomes, more public housing units and more inhabitants born abroad.
Originality/value
It provides an analysis on how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects by creating a restricted control area, so as to make the treatment group and the control group more homogeneous. Thus, it mitigates any potential problems with spatial dependency, which can cause biased standard errors.
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Enerst Shingai Chikosi, Shingirai Stanley Mugambiwa, Happy Mathew Tirivangasi and Sejabaledi Agnes Rankoana
Perceptions of climate change and its threats to rural communities are among major challenges faced by scientists around the world. A few studies prove that these communities are…
Abstract
Purpose
Perceptions of climate change and its threats to rural communities are among major challenges faced by scientists around the world. A few studies prove that these communities are aware of change in climatic conditions and their impacts on people’s livelihoods. Climate change is usually perceived as increasing warming days, erratic rainfall patterns, ecological variability, biological change and their adverse effects on human beings. This study aims to assess Ga-Dikgale community’s perceptions on climate change and variability.
Design/methodology/approach
A qualitative research method was adopted and community members of age 60 and above in GaDikgale community were purposively selected as participants in the study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, and thematic content analysis was used to analyse data.
Findings
The study found that the community perceives climate change and climate variability based on changes in temperature patterns, erratic rainfall patterns, seasonal change, depletion of biodiversity, decline in subsistence crop production, change in water quality and cessation of cultural activities.
Originality/value
The study concludes that community’s perceptions of climate change are largely centred on variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. It has been established that knowledge of climate change in rural communities is of paramount importance in as far as adaptation to climate hazards is concerned.
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