Search results

The collaborative economy (CE), and within it, collaborative consumption (CC) has become a central element of the global economy and has substantially disrupted service markets (e.g. accommodation and individual transportation). The purpose of this paper is to explore the trends and develop future scenarios for market structures in the CE. This allows service providers and public policy makers to better prepare for potential future disruption.

Thought experiments – theoretically grounded in population ecology (PE) – are used to extrapolate future scenarios beyond the boundaries of existing observations.

The patterns suggested by PE forecast developmental trajectories of CE leading to one of the following three future scenarios of market structures: the centrally orchestrated CE, the social bubbles CE, and the decentralized autonomous CE.

The purpose of this research was to create CE future scenarios in 2050 to stretch one’s consideration of possible futures. What unfolds in the next decade and beyond could be similar, a variation of or entirely different than those described.

Public policy makers need to consider how regulations – often designed for a time when existing technologies were inconceivable – can remain relevant for the developing CE. This research reveals challenges including distribution of power, insularity, and social compensation mechanisms that need consideration across states and national borders.

This research tests the robustness of assumptions used today for significant, plausible market changes in the future. It provides considerable value in exploring challenges for public policy given the broad societal, economic, and political implications of the present market predictions.

The transformation from an industrial to a knowledge economy and society are underway. In the knowledge economy, the knowledge of people and organizations—their intellectual capital assets—are the primary factors of production and the source of wealth. This is in contrast to other kinds of capital that fueled the industrial and the agricultural economies. Librarians have understood the knowledge society as one characterized by an increased focus on digital resources and an expanded use of virtual channels to deliver those resources. However, the nature of the knowledge society and economy is far more expansive than a digital environment. A knowledge society is one in which all members of a society engage in knowledge transactions—in the business environment, in the social sphere, in civic activities, and in everyday environmental actions. This view of the knowledge society presents new opportunities for librarians to leverage their intellectual capital. This chapter profiles the intellectual capital assets of librarians, considers how they align with professional competencies, and presents use cases that illustrate the value of these assets. Future scenarios illustrate how traditional functional competencies might shift in the knowledge economy. These also suggest contexts which highlight undervalued or new competencies. Seven observations describe how librarians might prepare for expanded roles in the knowledge society.

This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.

This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.

The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.

SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

This paper aims to make use of participatory scenarios to assess the multiple aspects of space with the help of future scenarios.

This paper makes an attempt to appreciate multiple representations of space where past and present experiences merge with future desires and concerns. With the help of one case study, Izmir (Turkey), where a vision of democratic city is developed, the paper shows how future scenarios can provide deeper and richer appreciation of present space, thereby challenging existing spatial practices.

The participatory approach used in the development of scenarios suggests interesting implications to operationalise a more relational concept of space in real planning strategies.

The use of scenarios in strategic planning to identify future possibilities and to make stakeholders aware of uncertainties has been increasingly recognised in planning research and practice.

The appreciation of the multiple aspects of space with the help of future scenarios would enrich the spatial planning practice.

The use of participatory approach to preparing scenarios enables participants to make use of interactive method in social and political discourses.

The use of scenarios to examine various aspects of space that may be relevant in spatial planning has not received similar attention. The latter poses methodological as well as practical challenges for researchers. This paper is an attempt to do just that.

The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning.

An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people’s attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method.

Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods.

Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher “predictive value.” Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater “change.”

The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.

As a Small Island Developing State, Jamaica merits special consideration in discussions on climate change. This reality has arguably been heightened by COVID-19, forcing even more attention to identifying recovery measures which do not exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Using future scenarios methodology, the chapter identifies four possible scenarios for Jamaica, highlighting the limitations and opportunities for socioeconomic recovery post-COVID-19. In so doing, it also identifies the means, actors and actions for achieving the most desirable scenario from the perspective of resilience and adaptation to climate change (SDG 13) and the preservation of biodiversity (SDGs 14 and 15). It concludes that Jamaica is currently on a trajectory which does not sufficiently consider the risks of climate change and biodiversity loss. Notwithstanding, there is optimism that the government will implement policies to arrest the current trajectory, including integrating economic development planning with the imperatives for climate change adaptation and protecting biodiversity and giving more voice to non-governmental stakeholders.

The present study aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flood hazard potential in the Kelantan River Basin using current and future scenarios.

The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) was used to estimate the current 50- and 100-year return period 24-h design rainfall, and the climate change factor (CCF) was used to compute the future design rainfall. The CCF was calculated from the rainfall projections of two global climate models, CGCM1 and CCSM3, with different pre-processing steps applied to each. The IDF data were used in the rainfall-runoff-inundation model to simulate current and future flood inundation scenarios.

The estimated CCF values demonstrate a contrast, whereby each station had a CCF value greater than one for CGCM1, while some stations had a CCF value of less than one for CCSM3. Therefore, CGCM1 projected an aggravation and CCSM3 a reduction of flood hazard for future scenarios. The study reveals that topography plays an essential role in calculating the CCF.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to examine flood projections in the Kelantan River Basin. It is, therefore, hoped that these results could benefit local managers and authorities by enabling them to make informed decisions regarding flood risk mitigation in a climate change scenario.

This article attempts to ascertain the future scenario of the Singapore tourism industry through the use of the Delphi technique. Two panels were established for the purpose of this study. The first panel consisted of key individuals in the local tourist industry. The second panel comprised an international group of executives participating in an executive development programme in Singapore. The panels were asked to examine a host of events related to the tourism industry in Singapore and to provide their assessments on the likelihood of these events happening in different time horizons. Based on the findings, events with higher probability of occurrence and crucial to tourism development are identified. Marketing implications of these events are discussed and strategies for tourism planning suggested.

The purpose of this paper is to build possible future scenarios for indoor connectivity in a venue such as a university campus and build alternative value network configurations (VNCs) defining different local network deployment options, focused on the Finnish telecom market.

In this paper, Schoemaker’s scenario planning method (Schoemaker, 1995) is used to construct future scenarios and the VNC method of Casey et al. (2010) is used to build alternative VNCs. The paper studies the Aalto University campus network for current end-user data usage demand and the existing technology used in meeting the end-user needs and forecasts the demand for the next five years to understand the need for 5G.

This research concludes that with the provision of local spectrum licenses, there is an opportunity for venue owners to take the role of 5G local operator on the venue premises. Furthermore, it enables venue owners to collaborate with the incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) in a neutral host model and provide venue-specific connectivity services.

A detailed economic assessment for the network deployment in the campus is considered for future study.

Considering the provision for local spectrum licenses, this paper has taken a unique attempt in identifying the future scenarios for local 5G network operations. It provides a strategic direction for the venue owners in adopting 5G technology and whether to make 5G or buy 5G from MNOs.

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI).

The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations.

The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection.

The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system.

An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI.

This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.