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African Economies are a mix of emerging and developing economies, characterised by regional imbalances and socio-economic differences. Foreign Direct Investment and Trade has been important for the growth prospects of African Economies. In this paper, we attempt to study the impact of FDI and Trade in a COVID-19 scenario on the African Economies. We also study the lockdown restrictions in different regions of Africa. Applying Neural Network Analysis for the sample of 36 African Economies we identify the significant economic variables for GDP. The analysis based on a feedforward structure suggests that Merchandize Exports (MEXP) and Foreign Direct Investment Stock (FDIS) have very strong causal linkages with the GDP for African Economies sample. On the other hand, Merchandise Imports (MIMP), Services Exports (SEMP), Services Imports (SIMP), and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (FDII) have a strong and significant relationship with GDP for the African Economies. Tariff Measures (TRFF), Anti-Dumping measures (ADP) and Foreign Direct Investment Outflows (FDIO) have no significant relationship.

The paper is a preliminary assessment of coronavirus disease’s (COVID-19) effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities within the limitations imposed by data and the information currently available and in the lights of other international organizations’ growth forecasts. The study was undertaken to get deeper understanding of the threats and opportunities of COVID-19 on African trade because of the existing interconnected trade networks making African countries to be more vulnerable and increasing number of restrictions and distortions among major traders. This study aims to present strong information required in underpinning sound national, regional and inter-regional policy responses to keep trade flowing.

To assess COVID-19’s effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities, this study relied on data and information currently available from organizations such as World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank (WB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Monetary Fund, European Union, International Trade Statistics and various African countries’ trade and national statistics publications. The analysis contains two main scenarios. The first, an observed effects scenario (first quarter of year 2020), looks at the observed effect of COVID-19 outbreak on trade in Africa. The second, a potential effects scenario, analyses the potential trade effects if the COVID-19 outbreak lingers and spreads more intensively than is assumed in the baseline scenario.

The COVID-19 outbreak affects several aspects of international trade even though the full effects of the outbreak are not yet visible in most trade data. Some leading indicators had shown that keeping trade flow can support the fight against COVID-19 as well as having damaging effect on Africa’s trade. COVID-19 had led to a deep fall in transaction, both at the international level and within-regions. Tariffs and other restrictions to imports harm the flow of critical products to African countries. Uncooperative trade policies lead to higher prices of goods in fragile and vulnerable African countries.

Long term in-depth analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on trade using quantitative data is still very difficult because of paucity of data and the great level of the improbability of the trajectory of the spread of the virus. Informed assessment of the full trade impact of the pandemic on African countries is therefore still difficult. Notwithstanding, this study assesses the immediate effects and conveys the likely extent of impending African trade pains and the potential needs for assistance.

Trade in both goods and services plays a key role in overcoming the pandemic and limit its effects by providing access to essential medical goods to treat those affected, ensuring access to food, providing farmers with needed inputs, support jobs and sustain economic activity during global recession. However, temporary COVID-19 trade measures such as borders closure, export prohibition and import ban are a threat to globalization and free trade agreements engaged by some African countries.

The continuous rise in COVID-19 cases is expected to trigger economic recession in Africa despite a rapid expansion and creation of new social protection programmes. The unavoidable decline in trade caused by COVID-19 is already having painful consequences on the economy, social anxiety among families, households, businesses and trade across countries in the continent. COVID-19 trade restrictions aimed at reducing the transmission of the virus have led to loss of income and jobs as well as closure of small and vulnerable businesses. Policymakers should enforce social policies that unite countries within the continents in bad times to reduce social anxiety and hardship.

Although the effects of COVID-19 outbreak on global and regional trade have received enormous attention recently, facts in the form of data have been thin particularly on African trade. This paper, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is one of the first set of studies that provides preliminary assessment of COVID-19’s effects on trade in Africa using scenarios-building approach based on the available data and information on regional trade, complemented by those from the WTO, WB and departments of trade and statistics from various African countries such as the Nigeria Nation Bureau of Statistic and Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics.

This chapter discusses some of the internationalisation (e.g. mergers and acquisitions, networks and strategic alliances) of household names into Africa – especially in the aftermath two simultaneous events – that is, the African Continental Free Trade Area and British exit from the European Union (Brexit) with or without a trade deal. This chapter also touches upon the need for inter-functional integration in driving forward Africa’s creative industries – notably the intersections between entrepreneurship and innovation within which business models in digital publishing and software development, as well as localisation of animation and games in Africa have been seen.

This paper aims to examine the road ahead for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on its potential opportunities and challenges. It is intended to help the AfCFTA’s effective implementation by highlighting the major areas of intervention for State Parties.

The paper analyses relevant economic, political and legal research sources on regional integration in Africa and offers some personal views of the author to evaluate the past, present and future of the AfCFTA.

The paper shows that the AfCFTA can support its State Parties’ industrialization and diversification, better integrate micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to regional value chains, create jobs, encourage sustainable investments and help its State Parties have common positions on global issues and achieve development. But, it also shows the challenges facing the AfCFTA, which include infrastructure gap, revenue and job losses, overlapping membership of State Parties in Regional Economic Communities, cumbersome customs systems, difficulty to cross African borders, fledgling MSMEs and inadequate technical capacity on trade policy. Accordingly, it recommends that State Parties continuously take various actions to address these challenges and maximize the multiple benefits of the AfCFTA.

The paper provides a comprehensive and up-to-date appraisal of the opportunities and challenges of the AfCFTA, both in the context of the history of regional integration in Africa and the recent global shocks that adversely impacted the continent (COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine).

The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems.

The paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined.

The results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced.

This paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade.

This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.

This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.

The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.

SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

The purpose of this paper is to extend the gravity model to examine the role of infrastructure (including human capital (HC)), macroeconomic policies, the institutional quality and the colonial regimes on intra-African trade during the period 1990-2013. The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade, HC, the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the British colonial regime appear as encouraging factors. The results of the study imply that devoting more resources to HC and creating a favourable investment environment should come as a top priority in current efforts to facilitate Africa’s economic regionalism.

The paper employs Tobit technique on a semi-log extended form for the gravity model.

The results show that the basic gravity variables have substantial influence on the bilateral trade in the continent. Most interestingly, whilst internal conflicts appear to have harmful and significant impacts on the flow of such trade; HC, the flow of FDI and the British colonial regime come out as encouraging factors.

The results provided can be useful to design policies oriented to facilities intra-trade between African economies. So far, this is the first study that incorporates the soft type of infrastructures, colonization and institutional quality in the investigation of the factors that can influence intra-Africa trade.

At the heart of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are substantial trade preferences, which coupled with the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) grant a wide range of goods produced in qualified African countries duty-free access to the USA. To be AGOA-eligible, countries are assessed annually on their progress in undertaking appropriate economic, institutional and human rights reforms. This paper seeks to cover new grounds by exploring whether exports of apparel to US crowds out EU-15's imports from Africa.

This paper employs the gravity model to gauge trade displacement effects from the EU to the US due to AGOA, and whether the more relaxed special waiver embodied in AGOA's apparel provision causes non-knitted exports to EU-15 to be crowded out. The basic gravity model, which posits that trade between two countries is positively influenced by the economic size and negatively affected by the distance between them, is augmented with other trade inhibiting and trade facilitating variables.

The gravity model provides no evidence of trade displacement but, instead, provides support for the hypothesis of complementarity of African exports to the two key markets. A strong positive impact of the bilateral trade between the US and Africa on the EU–African trade is evident mainly before the phasing out of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). This paper finds that Special Rule beneficiaries' exports to the two markets still complement each other, but for every percentage increase in exports to the USA, there is a less than proportionate increase in exports to EU-15 indicating a higher utilisation of the special waiver. This paper also provides evidence for complementary apparel exports to both LDCs (least developing countries) and non-LDCs, with stronger effects on non-LDCs and the non-knitted sector.

Future work could consider the longer lifespan of AGOA following its latest renewal in 2015. This would allow one to also capture the ongoing changes in EU trade arrangements in particular implementation of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). This new agreement comes with more flexible rules of origin requiring single transformation step instead of the double step. As most African nations are still in the process of adopting EPAs, new research can shed more light on complementary or displacement effects once these agreements are adopted.

Since the main intent of AGOA is to enhance Africa's integration into the global economy by encouraging trade and investment, generate employment and increase productivity and per capita income growth, its impact on Special Rule beneficiaries' exports to the US has been extensively examined. However, the indirect effects of this trade agreement on African exports to other key markets providing similar preferences such as the EU has not been fully explored. This study also covers new grounds by examining whether there has been any apparel trade displacement from the EU to the US, as a result of the Act, over 2001–2016 period right from AGOA's inception.

The purpose of this paper is to show how the pattern of trade relations between the USA and African countries is gradually shifting toward reciprocity. It therefore demonstrates that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) was conceived to be a building block toward future bilateral trade agreements.

This paper adopts a historical approach to the USA’s policy toward Africa in general and in trade matters in particular. It critically reviews the chronology of US involvement in the continent.

Although it was designed as a preferential trade arrangement, AGOA was intended to evolve into reciprocal trade agreements. This is what the USA started doing even prior to the entry into force of the AGOA, by entering into Trade and Investment Framework Agreements with individual countries or blocs. It also transpires that the deployment comes as a response to the European Union which is already engaged in the redefinition of its own trade relations with Africa since 2004.

The paper is important in many respects. Not only it is a study of the US practice as preference-granting country, but it is also interested in the typology of trade agreements concluded by the USA in other regions of the world. This is important to indicate and analyze the types of provisions African countries should be expected to face when the time of entering into reciprocal binding trade treaties arrives.

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the effect of commodity exports from Africa to China on the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) after controlling for variables that have been found to be important determinants of economic growth. This study uses a panel of 23 African countries for the period of 2001-2011.

The authors make use of a Barro-type empirical economic growth model which uses per capita GDP as the dependent variable. With regard to independent variables, the authors examine the China effect after controlling for variables that have been found to affect economic growth. To account for the China effect, we use the following three measures of trade with China: commodity export to China, commodity export to China relative to total export and commodity export to China relative to the world. The authors use panel data from 2001 to 2011.

Results indicate that the magnitudes of the effect, while statistically significant, are not large enough to induce positive growth rates. The results also indicate that the magnitudes of the effects depend on the colonial origin of the African countries.

The data are limited to the 2001-2011 time frame because of data availability issues. This time frame does capture the era when China increased its trade with Africa. The choices of variables were also affected by data availability. However, the authors managed to find data on the main drivers of economic growth. Further research is needed to gain a more comprehensive analysis of the effects of commodity trade with China on Africa’s economy, given the partial character of the data set used in this study. Similarly, there is also a need for more detailed information on China’s trade activities.

While the results of this study show an improvement in the per capita growth rate, the changes are not large enough to put African countries on a path to a sustained prosperity. African governments which trade with China should consider investing more in manufacturing, so that they create more jobs locally and benefit more from their exports.

The China–Africa relationship shows a small positive impact on societal well-being.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the existing studies on China–Africa relations attempted to understand the impact of China’s economic activity on the standards of living of African residents, where standard of living is measured by economic growth. The current study aims to bridge this gap. This study complements existing studies and uses a data set and methodology that has not been used before on this issue.