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Book part
Publication date: 27 January 2022

Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez

This chapter provides a brief overview of the need to study sustainable futures. It provides an outline of the importance of inventing futures in the third decade of the…

Abstract

This chapter provides a brief overview of the need to study sustainable futures. It provides an outline of the importance of inventing futures in the third decade of the twenty-first century. It offers conceptual tools for building sustainable futures scenarios and discusses the importance of long-term thinking in business, government and society. This chapter is divided into four sections. Section One presents the opportunities to invent futures and the role of long-term scenarios. Section Two describes the contest for reimagination and the reinvention of futures. Section Three provides the historic background of the evolution of scenario methodology. Section Four offers a concise introduction to futures studies and futurology. Finally, a short preamble on the empirical research on Sustainable Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean considers climate change.

Details

Regenerative and Sustainable Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-864-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 11 August 2005

Seçkin Polat and Umut Asan

This paper presents an approach for developing critical skills necessary for competition in the future. The study combines the methodology of designing scenarios with the…

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for developing critical skills necessary for competition in the future. The study combines the methodology of designing scenarios with the methodology of defining competencies by a transition from future scenarios to skills, based on product scenarios. Product scenarios indicate concrete alternative future products that are key sources for identifying future skills. The approach has been applied to the security equipment sector in Turkey. The product, closed circuit television (CCTV) system is chosen to illustrate the process.

Details

Competence Perspective on Managing Internal Process
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-320-4

Article
Publication date: 13 July 2023

Ali Zackery, Mohsen Taheri Demneh and Maryam Ebadi Nejad

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four…

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Abstract

Purpose

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Findings

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

Originality/value

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 13 June 2019

Alessandro Fergnani

The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual…

2045

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise.

Design/methodology/approach

After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed.

Findings

Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience.

Practical implications

Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization.

Originality/value

Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

Details

foresight, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 19 July 2011

Ruth Saurin and John Ratcliffe

This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and energy to the

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and energy to the overall process of a built environment project.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper outlines the Prospective through Scenarios futures process used in a study called the “Workplace of the Future”. It also discusses how and why the methodology evolves over the course of the project with participant feedback as the main source of information for the analysis.

Findings

Change is the one factor in the Prospective through Scenarios methodological development that ensures the participants to think deeply and laterally in a futures process, from which a value‐driven process is achieved.

Originality/value

Novel futures techniques have been applied to a discipline that is usually reactive and quantitative – workplace provision and facilities management.

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2007

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

Design/methodology/approach

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

Findings

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Practical implications

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Originality/value

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2016

Ellen van Oost, Stefan Kuhlmann, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros and Peter Stegmaier

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five…

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Abstract

Purpose

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations.

Findings

The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection.

Research limitations/implications

The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system.

Practical Implications

An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI.

Originality/value

This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.

Article
Publication date: 6 June 2022

Reza Hafezi and Pardis Asemi

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved…

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Abstract

Purpose

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.

Design/methodology/approach

To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.

Findings

In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).

Originality/value

The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Reiko Takahashi, Ryoji Nakamura and Yuichi Washida

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T).

Design/methodology/approach

A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future.

Findings

The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters.

Originality/value

Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.

Book part
Publication date: 16 June 2015

Jon E. Cawthorne

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for…

Abstract

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles for librarians and staff which brings a much needed focus on the development of human resources as well as a thought-stream to understand decisions which effectively and systematically move the organization toward a strategic vision.

These scenarios also outline possible future directions research libraries could take by focusing on perspectives from library directors, provosts, and administrators for human resources. The four case study scenarios introduce potential future roles for librarians and highlight the unsustainability of the current scholarly communications model as well as uncertain factors related to the political, social, technical, and demographic issues facing campuses. Given the changes institutions face, scenarios allow directors to include more uncertainty when developing and articulating a vision. These scenarios may start a discussion, before a strategic planning process, to sharpen the evaluations and measures necessary to monitor achievements that define the value of the library.

Details

Advances in Library Administration and Organization
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-910-3

Keywords

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