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1 – 10 of over 4000The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries (E7).
Design/methodology/approach
The study is conducted using the daily data for exchange rates and stock market returns in each of the E7 countries from January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. The study employs the ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lag error correction regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH (1,1)) regression models to fully investigate the impact of exchange rate on stock markets. For further investigation, the GARCH (1,1) model is run twice for each country with and without the inclusion of exchange rate to determine its effect on the volatility of stock returns.
Findings
The findings support the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables for all countries. The results reveal significant positive long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in all countries except for Indonesia, which evidenced a significant negative impact. The results of the GARCH (1,1) add that the inclusion of exchange rate in the model accounts for a slight change in the volatility of stock returns.
Originality/value
The research provides empirical evidence that appreciating currencies are perceived positively by investors leading to better performing capital markets. The outcomes of this study may assist policy makers in understanding to what degree changes in exchange rates can influence capital markets, as well as narrow the gap in literature regarding which theory is more relevant in explaining how exchange rate fluctuations impact market values.
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The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.
Findings
The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.
Research limitations/implications
Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.
Originality/value
It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.
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The most prominent and persistent problems of our global monetary system are instability and imbalances. We propose an international monetary model to solve these problems while…
Abstract
Purpose
The most prominent and persistent problems of our global monetary system are instability and imbalances. We propose an international monetary model to solve these problems while at the same time move the model closer to Maqāṣid Sharīʿah (objectives of Sharīʿah). We name this an organic global monetary model or abbreviated as OGM. OGM is an international monetary model directly built on the national monetary system of each member country so that the two can co-exist.
Design/methodology/approach
Model design, theory and literature.
Findings
The model can eliminate interest rates at the central bank level, create non-tradable international money, and make a more stable international monetary system.
Originality/value
Original.
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This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in Saudi Arabia, which is the largest dual banking industry.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model on stock returns of four fully Islamic Saudi banks and eight conventional Saudi banks.
Findings
The results showed that the foreign exchange rate return has a positive impact on Saudi conventional bank returns, while it has an adverse impact on Saudi Islamic bank returns. Moreover, a higher interest rate return has a positive impact on Saudi bank stock returns implying that the assets side is more sensitive to changes in interest rates than the liability side. Finally, higher foreign exchange and interest rates volatility increases the volatility of Saudi bank returns, where the former has the largest significant impact. Therefore, Saudi regulators should pay more attention to the risk management of their banks because this could threaten the stability of their financial system.
Originality/value
To the best knowledge of the author, this is the first study that tries to extensively analyze the joint impact of foreign exchange and interest rates on bank stock returns and volatility in Saudi Arabia by applying the GARCH model. The study uses a long data set from 2010 to 2019 that includes all Saudi banks and employs four measures of interest rates to increase the robustness of the results.
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Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.
Findings
Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.
Originality/value
There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.
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Hakan Yildirim, Saffet Akdag and Andrew Adewale Alola
The last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other…
Abstract
Purpose
The last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other sources of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to examine the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and the Republic of Turkey.
Design/methodology/approach
Given this perceived global dynamics, the current study examined the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey's exchange rate dynamics by using the United States (US) monthly dollar exchange rate data between January 2002 and August 2019. The price bubble which is expressed as exceeding the real value of assets' prices which is observably caused by speculative movements is investigated by using the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approaches.
Findings
Accordingly, the GSADF test results opined that there are price bubbles in the dollar exchange rate of other countries except for the United States Dollar (USD)/Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rate. As the related countries are classified as developing countries in terms of their structure, they are also expectedly the subject of speculative exchange rate movements. Speculative movements in exchange rates may cause serious problems in national economies.
Originality/value
Thus, the current study provides a policy framework to the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey.
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Chinedu Francis Egbunike and Chinedu Uchenna Okerekeoti
The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigates the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, while the firm characteristics were size, leverage and liquidity. The dependent variable financial performance is measured as return on assets (ROA).
Design/methodology/approach
The study used the ex post facto research design. The population comprised all quoted manufacturing firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The sample was restricted to companies in the consumer goods sector, selected using non-probability sampling method. The study used multiple linear regression as the method of validating the hypotheses.
Findings
The study finds no significant effect for interest rate and exchange rate, but a significant effect for inflation rate and GDP growth rate on ROA. Second, the firm characteristics showed that firm size, leverage and liquidity were significant.
Practical implications
The study has implications for regulators and policy makers in formulating policy decisions. In addition, managers may better understand the interplay between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and profitability of firms.
Originality/value
Few studies have addressed the interplay of macroeconomic factors and firm characteristics in determining the profitability of manufacturing firms in the country and developing countries in general.
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Faik Bilgili, Fatma Ünlü, Pelin Gençoğlu and Sevda Kuşkaya
This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.
Findings
This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.
Originality/value
One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.
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Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş, Zafer Dönmez and Esra Can
In this study, it is analyzed the validity of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) effect and the effect of interest rate and output level on the inflation rate (IR) in Brazil…
Abstract
Purpose
In this study, it is analyzed the validity of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) effect and the effect of interest rate and output level on the inflation rate (IR) in Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey (BRIC-T) between the years 1995Q1 and 2022Q4.
Design/methodology/approach
The methods such as the panel unit root test developed by Westerlund (2012), the LM bootstrap panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator developed by Pesaran (2006) and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) that take into account the cross-section dependency are applied for analysis.
Findings
As a result of the findings, it is determined that the ERPT effect is valid in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China and the cost channel is valid only in China. Finally, it is found out that output level positively affects inflation in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Practical implications
All these results indicate that the economies of Turkey, Russia, Brazil and India have a fragile structure, especially in terms of inflation. Therefore, the central bank of these countries should maintain exchange-rate stability to implement the inflation-targeting strategy successfully. In this context, central bank independence should be increased in these countries in achieving this objective. Also the results indicate that it is still early to consider whether BRIC-T countries and accordingly the Belt and Road Initiative will be an alternative against the domination of the USA and European Union (EU) on international trade system or it will substitute them.
Originality/value
In this study, it is tested that the impact of interest-rate (NIR), exchange-rate (FER) and output level (IPI) on general level of prices. Besides, it is analyzed that whether production level affects the IR. Also, the study investigates the economic issues such as ERPT effect and cost channel. The study analyzes whether China's Belt and Road Initiative is successful or not. In this study, we used the panel data methods that allow for structural breaks and cross-section dependency. For these reasons, this study differs from other studies in the literature both in terms of scope and methods used.
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Saban Nazlioglu, Mehmet Altuntas, Emre Kilic and Ilhan Kucukkkaplan
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis by using unit root approaches without and with structural breaks and non-linearity.
Findings
The PPP is valid for the GIIPS countries. Considering structural breaks in non-linear framework plays a crucial role.
Originality/value
There is no empirical study testing PPP hypothesis by focusing on the GIIPS countries. This study further takes into account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the real exchange rates of these countries.
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