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The time series of the federal funds rate has recently been extended back to 1928, now including several episodes during which interest rates remained near the lower bound of zero. This series is analyzed, using the method of indirect inference, by applying recent research on bounded time series to estimate a set of bounded parametric diffusion models. This combination uncouples the specification of the bounds from the law of motion. Although Louis Bachelier was the first to use arithmetic Brownian motion to model financial time series, he has often been criticized for this proposal, since the process can take on negative values. Most researchers favor processes such as geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which remains positive. Under this framework, Bachelier's proposal remains valid when specified with bounds and is shown to compare favorably when modeling the federal funds rate.

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as Neo-Fisherianism. This chapter proposes a policy based on Neo-Fisherianism to escape Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) using a textbook Forward Looking New Keynesian Model. I have shown that proposed policy with properly chosen inflation target and persistence can stimulate economy and escape ZLB by raising nominal interest rate. I have also shown that the proposed policy is robust to varying degrees of price stickiness.

The purpose of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the subject matter, focusing on western economic literature and the Islamic economic paradigm, including the Quran, Sunnah, jurisprudence and Islamic philosophy thinking, to illustrate the origins of the Islamic approach to monetary systems. The money interest rate and its studies are explained, and the role of money and credit in the production function is considered. Then, it is shown that money maintains the demand for money in the overlapping generation model, as well as the consumption behavior of households. It is followed by an explanation of general Pareto optimality and the role of the money interest rate in inefficiency and nonoptimality for households and firms. Finally, Section 4 concludes the paper.

This paper studies the effects of money issuance and bank creation on Pareto optimality. In explaining the origins of the Islamic approach to monetary systems, the literature review, it focuses on western economics’ literature and Islamic economics paradigms such as the Quran, sunnah, jurisprudence and Islamic philosophy thinking. In modeling section, the authors show how banks’ fractional reserve credit is profitable. The authors also examine how the introduction of the money interest rate can change the Pareto optimality. In this regard, the comparison between two situations, namely, financing by the stock of money and borrowing in the credit market, indicates that welfare is reduced by the creation system and is inefficient (or nonoptimal). The result is that no money and no credits are created. The provision of this system compensates money by increasing the real money supply or deflation. To ensure Pareto optimality, it has been proven in the field of microfoundation that there should be no fixed money contracts and no money interest rates. It is necessary that the interest rate on consumption credit is zero or Qarz-al-Hasna is broken. Moreover, profit sharing is offered in the production sector.

As a result, the authors proved mathematically that the money interest rate must be zero to ensure productivity and Pareto optimality. On the other hand, the introduction of money or credit through loanable money leads to inefficiency, both in production and households and in the general equilibrium. The inflation generated by the credit system stimulates the change in the price level and perpetuates this inefficiency. Thus, if the authors want to return to the optimality condition, the interest rate on consumption credit must be zero or Qarz-al-Hasna is breached. However, the behavior of the fractional banking system and the credit mechanism teaches us that the money interest rate is an integral part of credit and loanable funds. Thus, the elimination of the money interest rate from the banking system without bank creation is implausible. Finally, to ensure Pareto optimality, it has been mathematically proven in the field of microfoundation that there should be no fixed money contracts and no money interest rate. It is necessary that the interest rate on consumption credit is zero, or Qarz-al-Hasna is broken. Moreover, profit sharing is offered in the production sector. The result is that no money and credit are created. The provision of this system compensates money by increasing the real money supply or deflation.

The capitalist theory of the definition of interest plays a decisive role in economic science. In this context, the authors are dealing with different vocabularies and terms for the interest rate. These different vocabularies have their origin in the different economic situations and especially determine the thinking of the schools. Because of the relationship between future and spot, the authors have to transform the variable “level” into the variable “interest rate” in the dynamic space. Finally, the exact explanations for the movement and evaluation of the economy are revealed by the correlation of the different interest rates.

What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.

The paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.

The decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.

This survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Therefore, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model (DTSM), which ignores the ZLB, to a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB. Near the ZLB, we find notable declines in the forecast accuracy of the standard model, while the shadow-rate model forecasts well. However, 10-year yield term premiums are broadly similar across the two models. Finally, in applying the shadow-rate model, we find no gain from estimating a slightly positive lower bound on U.S. yields.

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Low interest rates around the world due to adaptive monetary policy regulations for some time a source of concern for the banking sector and depositors of the bank. In this environment, interest rates have raised concerns about nominal deposit interest rates which cannot be lowered below zero without destroying bank customers. Bank loans are becoming less vulnerable to lower interest rates on deposits approaching zero, indicating that the financial channel is weakened when interest rates are close to zero. Demographic pressures associated with longer life expectancy, China's gradual integration into global financial markets and changes in supply and asset requirements are attributed as reasons for low interest rates. Volatility of CPI inflation, interest rates on bank deposits attracting income tax and discontented depositors due to lower rates are cited as reasons for the suffering of bank depositors. This chapter thus discusses the impact of negative rate on economic growth and bank customers besides discussing the future trends of negative interest rates.

This paper examines whether target returns act as specific goals that impact risk-taking when individuals make investment decisions.

Using an experimental setting, the authors assign either a low or a high target return to participants and ask them to make independent investment decisions as the risk-free rate fluctuates around their target return and, for some of them, becomes negative.

Building on cumulative prospect theory, the authors find that the prevailing reference point of participants is the target return, regardless of the level of the risk-free rate. This result still holds even when the risk-free rate is negative, suggesting that (1) the target return drives risk-taking more than does a zero-threshold and (2) negative rates are limited as a tool to stimulate appetites for risk. In a follow-up study, the authors show that these conclusions remain valid when the target return is endogenously determined.

The authors' original approach, which pioneers the use of target returns in both the positive and negative interest rate contexts, provides insightful results about the “reach for yield” among regular people.

This paper aims to examine the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates. This paper examines the efficiency of interest rate channel used in monetary regulation as well as implementation of monetary policy under low interest rates. This paper examines and reviews the scientific literature published over the past 30 years to determine primary research areas, to summarize their results and to identify appropriate measures of monetary policy to be used in practice in changing economic environment.

This paper reviews 94 studies focused on the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates in terms of meeting the goals of macroeconomic regulation. The articles are selected on the basis of Scopus citation and bibliometric analysis. A major feature of this paper is the use of text analysis (data preparation, frequency of terms and collocations use, examination of relationships between terms, use of principal component analysis to determine research thematic areas). Using the method of principal component analysis while studying abstracts this paper reveals thematic areas of the research. Thus, the conducted text analysis provides unbiased results.

First, this paper examines the whole complex of relationships between monetary policy of central banks and market interest rates. Second, this research reviews a wide range of literature including recent studies focused on specific features of monetary policy under low and negative rates. Third, this study identifies and summarizes the thematic areas of all the researches using text analysis (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability). Finally, this paper presents the most important findings of the studied articles related to the current situation and trends on the financial market as well as further research opportunities. This paper finds the principal results of studies on significant issues of monetary policy in terms of its efficiency under low interest rates, influence of its instruments on term structure of interest rates and role of banking sector in implementation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

The limitation of the review is examining articles for the study period of 30 years.

Central banks of emerging economies should apply the instruments and results of the countries' monetary policies reviewed in this paper. Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows presenting the main ideas related to current economic situation.

The findings are of great value for adjusting the monetary policy of central banks. Also, these are important for people because these show the significant role of monetary policy for the economic growth.

Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability) and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows defining the current ideas relevant to the monetary policy of developing countries. It is important for central banks because it examines the monetary policy problems and proposes optimal solutions.

The purpose of this research is to propose a framework for research on Macaulay duration and establish future research directions.

Thematic, bibliometric and content analyses have been used to review 168 research papers published between 1938 and 2019 taken from ISI Web of Science and Scopus contributed by leading authors, journals and regulatory bodies.

Identification and integration of themes of duration theory, duration model development and duration model implementation leading to unattended research gaps, and framework for research on Macaulay duration.

The study is based on an extensive review of the literature to extract important themes, research gaps and frameworks. It does not empirically investigate significance of Macaulay duration and various sectors.

This research has several aspects that are helpful for practitioners. Macaulay duration has been the subject of empirical research only without any guiding framework. This research provides a platform to initiate profound researches in various areas of finance. Various proposed models are required to be tested under holistic approach in conventional and emerging fields, especially in Islamic settings.

This research highlights, research themes leading to framework, research gaps and factors that are crucial in developing, extending and testing duration models leading to enhancement of theoretical base of Macaulay duration.