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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 May 2022

Hock Tsen Wong

The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United…

8011

Abstract

Purpose

The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.

Findings

The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.

Research limitations/implications

Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.

Originality/value

It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 27 no. 54
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 March 2022

Oliver E. Ogbonna and Hyacinth E. Ichoku

The experience of rising trade imbalance between Nigeria and its key trading partners in recent years motivated this study. Previous studies on this issue either ignored bilateral…

Abstract

Purpose

The experience of rising trade imbalance between Nigeria and its key trading partners in recent years motivated this study. Previous studies on this issue either ignored bilateral level or assumed that the effect of crude oil price and/or exchange rate changes on trade balance is symmetric. Consequently, this study investigates whether Nigeria's bilateral trade balance with Belgium, China, United Kingdom (UK) and USA is responding symmetrically or asymmetrically to changes in oil price and exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (NARDL) model that decomposed oil price and exchange rate into partial sum processes of positive and negative changes over the period 1999Q1–2019Q4.

Findings

The study finds that the effects of oil price hike and plunge asymmetrically influence Nigeria's trade balance with the UK and USA. Further evidence indicated that oil price plunge exerts greater influence than price hike in all the cases, except the UK in the long run. Furthermore, Nigeria's trade balance responds asymmetrically and significantly to changes in exchange rate with China in the long run and with China and the UK in the short run. Specifically, the depreciation effect is more prominent than appreciation.

Originality/value

Significant contributions to the existing literature in Nigeria include the recognition that the effects of oil price and exchange rate changes on trade are asymmetric and the disaggregation of trade into bilateral level to identify country-specific effect.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 15 March 2022

You-How Go and Cheong-Fatt Ng

The aim of this chapter is to examine the role of real exchange rates in the relationship between tourist arrival and economic growth in Malaysia over the period of 2000–2018. We…

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to examine the role of real exchange rates in the relationship between tourist arrival and economic growth in Malaysia over the period of 2000–2018. We disaggregate Malaysian tourists into six geographical regions, namely Asia, Singapore, Europe, Pacific region, Americas, and Africa. Using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that the appreciation of real exchange rates with positive growth of economy plays a prominent role in influencing international tourist arrivals from Singapore, other Asian countries, Pacific region, Europe, and Americas. Our study suggests that real appreciation is important in providing some insights into the effectiveness of growth-led-tourism policies. In line with this, some implications are provided at the end of this chapter.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-313-1

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 November 2021

Mohini Gupta and Sakshi Varshney

The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate

Abstract

Purpose

The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate on 45 import commodities, considering global financial crisis period on India's import from the US. The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effect and causality among variables.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses E-GARCH model to gage the real exchange rate volatility, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test technique to discover the adequate short- and long-run relationships and Toda-Yamamoto causality method to analyze the causality among variables. The study uses the time period from 2002:M09 to 2019:M06.

Findings

The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effects and causality among variables.

Practical implications

The finding of the study suggests that macroeconomic variables have significant role and could be important to undertake the small and medium scale industries in policymaking. Government may need to make decision for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as their performance can bring change in the trade to compete globally by increasing and controlling the price of the import and defending the domestic competitiveness.

Originality/value

The study uses additional variable namely price of import and includes the global financial crisis period to measure dampening effect on each commodity by using robust econometric technique in context of emerging nation like India.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Ikenna Paulinus Nwodo, Ambrose Nnaemeka Omeje and Chukwu Ugwu Okereke

In Africa, recent data show that Nigeria is the second top remittance recipient behind Egypt, but welfare seems deteriorating. Most related reviewed literature is micro-based with…

Abstract

Purpose

In Africa, recent data show that Nigeria is the second top remittance recipient behind Egypt, but welfare seems deteriorating. Most related reviewed literature is micro-based with surveys, giving credence to the dearth of macro-based literature whose gap this study attempted to fill. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to examine remittance flows and its welfare implications in Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used quarterly data (1980Q1–2020Q4) from World Development Indicators (2020) and applied the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model.

Findings

Remittance flows were found to be significantly improving the welfare of Nigerians by about 0.04% for a percentage remittance increase. Financial sector development results show that while loans decrease welfare per individual significantly by 0.25% given a 1% increase in the loans accessible by the private sector, a percentage increase in broad money supply in circulation raises welfare per individual significantly by about 0.43%.

Practical implications

Since remittance is found to improve welfare, the study recommends that relevant stakeholders should endeavor to eliminate all form of bottlenecks (payment delays, remitting costs, transfer delays, poor policies and policy inconsistencies) inherent in remitting funds back to Nigeria. The implication of this is that if the impediments are minimized, remittances are bound to rise which will ultimately lead to improved welfare.

Originality/value

The existing literature revealed that there exists very limited or no macro-based study in this context, hence this novelty study.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 December 2022

Nestor U. Salcedo

414

Abstract

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 27 no. 54
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Article
Publication date: 10 July 2021

Sidi Mohammed Chekouri, Abdelkader Sahed and Abderrahim Chibi

This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4.

103

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method is used to capture the potential asymmetric relationship among oil prices and the exchange rate. Frequency domain spectral Granger causality test is also applied to investigate the causal linkage between the two variables. The wavelet coherence is applied to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and frequency domains.

Findings

The empirical results reveal evidence of long-run asymmetric effects of oil price on Algeria’s real effective exchange rate (REER), implying that an increase in oil price causes a real exchange rate to appreciate, while a decrease in oil price leads to a real exchange rate to depreciate. More specifically, it is found that the impact of negative oil price shocks is higher than the one associated with positive shocks. The spectral Granger causality results further indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from oil price to REER in both medium and long run. The wavelet coherence findings provide evidence of some co-movement between the REER and oil price and point out that the oil price is leading real exchange rate in the medium and long terms.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by investigating the asymmetric impact and the time domain causal linkage between oil price fluctuations and real exchange rate in Algeria.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 April 2022

Davoud Mahmoudinia and Seyed Mohammad Mostolizadeh

The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactive link between housing prices, stock market price and effective exchange rate in the Iranian economy for a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactive link between housing prices, stock market price and effective exchange rate in the Iranian economy for a monthly period from April, 2004, to March, 2019. In addition, for a more accurate analysis, three control and determinates variables including real interest rate, real GDP and FDI have been added to the base model.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, we will consider this issue by developing the study of Lean & Smyth (2014), Ali & Zaman (2017) and Coskun et al (2017) in the framework of ADRL and NARDL models. Also, this study analyzed the asymmetric/non-linear impact of stock market indexes and effective exchange rate on Iran’s housing inflation. Asymmetries imply to both positive and negative changes in the variables.

Findings

The results obtained from the ADRL and NARDL models suggest that the existence of cointegration relationship between housing market price and its determinants. From linear model, we found that the exchange rate and stock market price have a positive effect on the real estate inflation in the short run; this relationship is also confirmed in the long run. Other empirical results indicate that the GDP stimulates housing price in both long and short run cases, while FDI and real interest rate have an opposite effect. In addition, the results provided by the asymmetric model lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no co-integration between the variables. In addition, we found that the effect of stock price in the short and long term are asymmetric and there also is an asymmetric long-run effect of real exchange rate on the real estate price.

Originality/value

Finally, to analyze the sensitivity, we entered two explanatory variables of inflation and money supply to the baseline equation. The finding represented that in both linear and nonlinear framework, a positive correlation between these two variables with housing prices have been proved.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 November 2018

Ajaya Kumar Panda, Swagatika Nanda, Vipul Kumar Singh and Satish Kumar

The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover…

399

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates.

Findings

The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods.

Practical implications

The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates.

Originality/value

This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2022

Mouyad Alsamara, Karim Mimouni, Karim Barkat and Diana Kayaly

This paper aims to examine the effects of the real exchange rate on trade balance in Algeria and investigates whether it represents a viable tool to sustain and improve trade…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effects of the real exchange rate on trade balance in Algeria and investigates whether it represents a viable tool to sustain and improve trade performance using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation technique and data from Algeria over the period 1980–2018. This study also highlights the role of trading partners with large income endowments in enhancing the trade balance.

Design/methodology/approach

The NARDL model is used to unveil potential short and long run nonlinear responses of the trade balance to shocks in real exchange rates and detect whether these responses are different in terms of sign and magnitude. The paper also provides a dynamic multiplier analysis that tests the existence of a J-Curve pattern in Algeria with several policy recommendations.

Findings

The findings confirm the existence of a J-curve pattern in Algeria where domestic currency depreciation will worsen the trade balance in the short run and improve it in the long run. The authors also find that the asymmetrical effect of real exchange rate on trade balance is different in sign and magnitude. Finally, the results indicate that an increase in trade partners' income increases the trade balance in Algeria. The findings are of utmost importance with several policy implications.

Originality/value

While some works investigated the nonlinear response of trade balance to real exchange rate movements, their results remain inconclusive and seem to depend on the characteristics of the country/region of study. Moreover, the role of trade partners and their potential impact on trade balance has been relatively overlooked in the literature. The authors fill this gap by examining the asymmetric impacts of real exchange rate and the effect of trade partners' income on trade balance in Algeria.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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