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Article
Publication date: 3 August 2021

Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs error correction autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model (ECM) to examine how micro-level variables influence volatility associated with corporate performance in the short run.

Findings

This paper finds that disaggregated or micro-level variables examined, tend to exhibit features that are not readily apparent from the aggregate variable from which such variables are derived. For instance, reported empirical estimate suggests that, growth in expenditures on services and nondurable goods tend to lower volatility associated with corporate performance, whereas government expenditures and expenditures on durable goods rather worsens volatility associated with corporate performance, all things being equal. Additionally, presented empirical estimates further provide evidence suggesting that macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty significantly moderate or influence the extent to which disaggregated variables impact corporate performance volatility.

Originality/value

Compared to related studies in the reviewed literature, this study rather examines volatility associated with corporate performance instead of the corporate performance indicator itself. Additionally, this paper also examines how disaggregated variable instead of aggregate variables impact such volatility. Finally, the moderating role of key macroeconomic conditions in such a relationship is also examined.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

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Article
Publication date: 29 July 2021

Moncef Guizani and Ahdi Noomen Ajmi

This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic conditions on corporate cash holdings in terms of their influence on the level of cash and the speed of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic conditions on corporate cash holdings in terms of their influence on the level of cash and the speed of adjustment of cash to target levels in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC).

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs both static and dynamic regression analyses considering a sample of 2,878 firm-year observations drawn from stock markets in GCC countries over the 2010–2018 period.

Findings

Consistent with the precautionary motive, the results show that GCC firms tend to accumulate cash reserves in weak economic periods. Evidence also reveals that the estimated adjustment coefficients from dynamic panel models show that GCC firms adjust more slowly toward their target cash ratio in periods of unfavorable economic conditions.

Practical implications

This study has important implications for managers, policymakers and regulators. For managers, the study is an important reference to understand and design cash management policies by considering financial constraints imposed by macroeconomic conditions. In particular, managers should pay more attention to periods of credit crunch and weak economic conditions in which firms may be exposed to greater bankruptcy risks. For policymakers and regulators, this study may be useful in assessing the effect of macroeconomic factors on firm's cash holding decision. Therefore, in an effort to increase the supply of external financing available to firms, policymakers may devise investment friendly environment by controlling macroeconomic factors.

Originality/value

This paper offers some insights on the macro determinants of cash holdings by investigating emerging economies. It explores the role of macroeconomic conditions on corporate cash holdings in terms of their influence on the costs of external funds and financial constraints.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Bijoy Rakshit and Yadawananda Neog

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on environmental degradation in India over the period 1971–2016…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on environmental degradation in India over the period 1971–2016. Additionally, this paper considers the role of financial development, energy consumption intensity and economic growth in explaining the variation of environmental degradation in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors applied the power generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to measure inflation volatility and used it as a proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty. From a methodological perspective, the authors employ the autoregressive distributive lag bound testing model to establish the long-run equilibrium association between the variables. The Toda–Yamamoto causality approach has been used to examine the direction of causality between the variables.

Findings

Findings suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a positive effect on carbon emissions, indicating that higher inflation volatility, as a proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty, hinders India's environmental quality. Financial development, economic growth and energy consumption intensity have also adversely impacted environmental quality.

Practical implications

The negative association between macroeconomic uncertainty and environmental degradation calls for some stringent policy actions. While formulating policies to promote growth and maintain stability, policymakers and government stakeholders should take into account the environmental effects of macroeconomic policies. There is a need to implement more environmental-friendly technologies in the financial sector that could reduce carbon emission.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first that considers the role of macroeconomic uncertainty along with financial development and energy intensity in an emerging economy like India.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 48 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

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Book part
Publication date: 25 July 2019

Perry Warjiyo and Solikin M. Juhro

Abstract

Details

Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Book part
Publication date: 20 September 2014

Choon Chiang Leong and Tak-Kee Hui

This study aimed to examine the effects of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables on Singapore hotel stock returns using hotel companies listed on the Singapore…

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the effects of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables on Singapore hotel stock returns using hotel companies listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX). Data were obtained from the Singapore Department of Statistics, PULSES, and CEIC database. Regression procedures and residual tests were carried out using an econometric program, E-Views. The derived model which consisted of the significant macroeconomic variables and the unexpected non-macroeconomic variables was established. Results of stability and predictive power tests of the derived model inferred that the model was stable and reliable in explaining hotel stock returns and was also reliable for forecasting. Regression analyses indicated that changes in industrial production and money supply displayed positive relationships whilst exchange rates, inflation, short- and long-term interest rates showed negative relationships with Singapore hotel stock returns.

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Article
Publication date: 30 November 2020

Jan Jakub Szczygielski, Leon Brümmer and Hendrik Petrus Wolmarans

This study aims to investigate the impact of the macroeconomic environment on South African industrial sector returns.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of the macroeconomic environment on South African industrial sector returns.

Design/methodology/approach

Using standardized coefficients derived from time-series factor models, the authors quantify the impact of macroeconomic influences on industrial sector returns. The authors analyze the structure of the resultant residual correlation matrices to establish the level of factor omission and apply a factor analytic augmentation to arrive at a specification that is free of omitted common factors.

Findings

The authors find that global influences are the most important drivers of returns and that industrial sectors are highly integrated with the global economy. The authors show that specifications that comprise only macroeconomic factors and proxies for omitted factors in the form of residual market factors are likely to be underspecified. This study demonstrates that a factor analytic augmentation is an effective approach to ensuring an adequately specified model.

Research limitations/implications

The findings have a number of implications that are of interest to investors, econometricians and researchers. While the study focusses on a single market, the South African stock market, as represented by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), it is a highly developed and globally integrated market. In terms of market capitalization, it exceeds the Madrid Stock Exchange, the Taiwan Stock Exchange and the BM&F Bovespa. Yet, a limited number of studies investigate the macroeconomic drivers of the South African stock market.

Practical implications

Investors should be aware that while the South African domestic environment, especially political risk, has an impact on returns, global influences are the greatest determinants of returns. No industrial sectors are insulated from global influences and this limits the potential for diversification. This study suggests an alternative set of macroeconomic factors that may be used in further analysis and asset pricing studies. From an econometric perspective, this study demonstrates the usefulness of a factor analytic augmentation as a solution to factor omission in models that use macroeconomic factors to proxy for systematic influences that describe asset prices.

Originality/value

The contribution lies in providing insight into a large and well-developed yet understudied financial market, the South African stock market. This study considers a much broader set of macroeconomic factors than prior studies. A methodological contribution is made by estimating and interpreting standardized coefficients to discriminate between the impact of domestically and internationally driven factors. This study shows that should coefficients not be standardized, inferences relating to the relative importance of factors will differ. Finally, the authors unify an approach of using pre-specified factors with a factor analytic approach to address factor omission and to ensure a valid and readily interpretable specification.

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 September 2020

Rexford Abaidoo and Hod Anyigba

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation);…

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Findings

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Practical implications

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

目的

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究設計/方法/理念

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR),去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

研究結果

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中,通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比,往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示,在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中,就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言,淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

實務方面的含意

除了上述各實證結果外,本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料,譬如,各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少,是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標,如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施/程序。本研究的結果,或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

研究原創性/價值

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較,本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析,是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 7 September 2020

Fatemeh Abdolshah, Saeed Moshiri and Andrew Worthington

The Iranian banking industry has been greatly affected by dramatic changes in macroeconomic conditions over the past several decades owing to volatile oil revenues…

Abstract

Purpose

The Iranian banking industry has been greatly affected by dramatic changes in macroeconomic conditions over the past several decades owing to volatile oil revenues, changing fiscal and monetary policies, and the imposition of US sanctions. The main objective of this paper is to estimate potential credit losses in the Iranian banking sector due to macroeconomic shocks and assess the minimum economic capital requirements under the baseline and distressed scenarios. The paper also contrasts the applications of linear and nonlinear models in estimating the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on financial institutions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a multistage approach to derive the portfolio loss distribution for banks. In the first step, the dynamic relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables are estimated using a VAR model to generate the stress scenarios. In the second step, the default probabilities are estimated using a quantile regression model and the results are compared with those of the conventional linear models. Finally, the default probabilities are simulated for a one-year time horizon using Monte-Carlo method and the portfolio loss distribution is calculated for hypothetical portfolios. The expected loss includes the loss given default for loans drawn randomly and uniformly distributed and exposed at default values when loans are assigned a fixed value.

Findings

The results indicate that the loss distributions under all scenarios are skewed to the right, with the linear model results being very similar to those of quantile at the 50% quantile, but very unlike those at the 10% and 90% quantiles. Specifically, the quantile model for the 90% (10%) quantile generates estimates of minimum economic capital requirement that are considerably higher (lower) than those using the linear model.

Research limitations/implications

The study has focused on credit risk because of lack of data on other types of risk at individual bank level. The future studies can estimate the aggregate economic capital using a risk aggregation approach and a panel data (not presently available), which could further improve the accuracy of the estimates.

Practical implications

The fiscal and monetary authorities in developing countries, specially oil-exporting countries, can follow the risk assessment approach to assess the health of their banking system and adapt policies to mitigate the impacts of large macroeconomic shocks on their financial markets.

Originality/value

This is the first paper estimating the portfolio loss distribution for the Iranian banks under turbulent macroeconomic conditions using linear and nonlinear models. The case study can be applied to other developing and emerging countries, particularly those highly dependent on natural resources, prone to extreme macroeconomic shocks.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 48 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 5 February 2020

Gaurav Gupta and Jitendra Mahakud

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the macroeconomic condition on investment-cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) of Indian firms and examine whether the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the macroeconomic condition on investment-cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) of Indian firms and examine whether the effect of macroeconomic condition on ICFS depends on the size and group affiliation of the firm.

Design/methodology/approach

An empirical investigation is conducted using a dynamic panel data model or more specifically system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique.

Findings

Empirical findings postulate that the availability of cash flow influences the investment decisions which depicts that Indian manufacturing firms are internally as well as externally financially constrained. This study finds that good economic condition (period of high GDP growth rate) reduces the ICFS, although this effect is stronger for small-sized and standalone firms than the large-sized and business group affiliated firms. The authors find that macroeconomic condition has a positive and significant effect on investment decisions.

Research limitations/implications

This study has considered only the non-financial sector. The future research could explore the effect of macroeconomic condition on ICFS might be affected by firm other characteristics such as firm age and firm capital structure.

Social implications

The government should provide loan on the low rate to the small-sized firms and standalone firms because it is very difficult for these firms to finance their investment during the bad economic condition (period of low high GDP growth rate).

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the impact of the macroeconomic condition on ICFS as well as investment decisions of the Indian manufacturing firms, which is an unexplored issue from an emerging market perspective. To the best of my knowledge, this is a first-ever study which explores the effect of macroeconomic condition on investment decisions with respect to business group affiliation and firm size.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

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Article
Publication date: 18 May 2020

Ghulam Abbas and Shouyang Wang

The study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.

Findings

The empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.

Originality/value

This study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

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