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Article
Publication date: 15 September 2022

Sei Jeong and Munisamy Gopinath

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

Design/methodology/approach

A structural model is employed to uncover relationships among commodity price, price volatility, inventories and convenience yield. Monthly producer price data along with annual data on trade, consumption, inventories and tariffs for 71 countries and 13 commodities covering 2010–2019 are assembled to estimate the model. With a first-stage Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator to identify the best instrument set, a nonlinear approach is used to estimate the model.

Findings

Results show that international market information plays a critical role in domestic market price dynamics. International price volatility has a stronger effect on domestic prices than that of international inventories.

Research limitations/implications

Current upheaval in commodity markets requires an understanding of how prices move together and inventories affect that movement. A country's internal price is not independent of the effects of global market events.

Originality/value

Although hypotheses exist that global market information (volatility and inventories) helps countries manage domestic commodity prices, there have been limited studies on this relationship, especially with a structured model and cross-country data.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2022

Rania Zghal, Amel Melki and Ahmed Ghorbel

This present work aims at looking into whether or not introducing commodities in international equity portfolios helps reduce the market risk and if hedging is carried out with…

Abstract

Purpose

This present work aims at looking into whether or not introducing commodities in international equity portfolios helps reduce the market risk and if hedging is carried out with the same effectiveness across different regional stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors determine the optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of a number of commodity-hedged emerging and developed equity markets, using three versions of MGARCH model: DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH. The authors also use a rolling window estimation procedure for the purpose of constructing out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios.

Findings

Empirical results evince that commodities significantly display effective risk-reducing hedge instruments in short and long runs. The main finding is that commodities do not seem to hedge regional stock markets in the same way. They tend to provide evidence of a rather effective hedging regarding mainly the East European and Latin American stock markets.

Originality/value

The authors study whether commodities can hedge stock markets at regional context and if hedging effectiveness differ from one region to another.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Amira Said and Chokri Ouerfelli

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.

Design/methodology/approach

DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.

Findings

The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.

Originality/value

Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Jamal Wiwoho, Irwan Trinugroho, Dona Budi Kharisma and Pujiyono Suwadi

The purpose of this study is to formulate a governance and regulatory framework for Islamic crypto assets (ICAs). A balanced regulatory framework is required to protect consumers…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to formulate a governance and regulatory framework for Islamic crypto assets (ICAs). A balanced regulatory framework is required to protect consumers and to encourage digital Islamic finance innovation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study focuses on Indonesia and compares it to other countries, specifically Malaysia and the UK, using statutory, comparative and conceptual research approaches.

Findings

The ICAs are permissible (halal) commodities/assets to be traded if they fulfil the standards as goods or commodities that can be traded with a sale and purchase contract (sil’ah) and have an underlying asset (backed by tangible assets such as gold). Islamic social finance activities such as zakat and Islamic microfinance activities such as halal industry are backed by ICAs. The regulatory framework needed to support ICAs includes the Islamic Financial Services Act, shariah supervisory boards, shariah governance standards and ICA exchanges.

Research limitations/implications

This study only examined crypto assets (tokens as securities) and not cryptocurrencies. It used regulations in several countries with potential in Islamic finance development, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the UK.

Practical implications

The ICA regulatory framework is helpful as an element of a comprehensive strategy to develop a lasting Islamic social finance ecosystem.

Social implications

The development of crypto assets must be supported by a regulatory framework to protect consumers and encourage innovation in Islamic digital finance.

Originality/value

ICA has growth prospects; however, weak regulatory support and minimal oversight indicate weak legal protection for consumers and investors. Regulating ICA, optimising supervision, implementing shariah governance standards and having ICA exchanges can strengthen the Islamic economic ecosystem.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 66 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Deepa Pillai and Shubhra Mishra Deshpande

Warehouse receipt-based financing (WRF), an innovative instrument with its structure embedded in the agricultural value chain can potentially address farmers' concerns about…

Abstract

Purpose

Warehouse receipt-based financing (WRF), an innovative instrument with its structure embedded in the agricultural value chain can potentially address farmers' concerns about timely credit access and accessible remunerative markets. However, studies indicate farmers' exclusion from currently practiced WRF mechanisms across developing countries. Transaction cost and lack of assured remunerative markets post storage are the challenges thwarting farmers' participation. The study explores how these challenges can be addressed by analyzing a case study. The finding will help in coming up with a farmer-inclusive WRF mechanism.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a case study as an analysis tool. Primary data is gathered through farmers. Descriptive statistics and partial least squares (PLS) approach to structural equation modeling methodology has been adopted for empirical testing of the hypothesis of the study. The study uses SMART PLS 3.0 for analysis of data.

Findings

Single window offering of multiple value chain operations and technological intervention in physical handling substantially reduces transaction costs for farmers. Sustained farmers' participation in the case supports this finding. The presence of an assured market (PAM) is found to have a positive and significant relationship with WRF in the case of beneficiary farmers. The PAM is found to have a negative yet significant relationship with WRF in the case of nonbeneficiary farmers. Critical success factors of the entity KisanMitra stated in the case substantiates a farmer-inclusive WRF mechanism.

Research limitations/implications

The study analyzes a case study of specific geography. However, similarities enlisted across developing countries in the introduction section provide a scope of generalization of findings across developing countries. The identified factors for a farmer-inclusive WRF mechanism will enable the governments, policymakers and development institutions to ascertain and align their WRF implementation measures to inculcate and upgrade these factors to the prospective WRF agents. Future studies can explore the replication of farmer-inclusive WRF mechanisms across other geographies. The studies also explores the role of technological interventions in further reducing the transaction cost and suitable policy modifications to encourage replication of the study in other geopgraphical context.

Originality/value

The study on WRF and the methodology adopted is first of its kind to identify factors for a farmer-inclusive WRF mechanism.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Anindita Bhattacharjee, Dolly Gaur and Kanishka Gupta

India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these…

Abstract

Purpose

India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.

Findings

Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.

Practical implications

These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.

Originality/value

India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction…

Abstract

Purpose

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?

Findings

The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.

Originality/value

The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.

Findings

The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.

Originality/value

This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 November 2023

Ahlem Lamine, Ahmed Jeribi and Tarek Fakhfakh

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.

Findings

Generally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.

Originality/value

The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 29 no. 57
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 June 2023

Jamal Shah and Majed Alharthi

The agricultural sector is a critical component of global economic development, and its significance has grown significantly in recent years. The risks associated with agriculture…

Abstract

Purpose

The agricultural sector is a critical component of global economic development, and its significance has grown significantly in recent years. The risks associated with agriculture and the behaviors of farmers in handling these risks are becoming increasingly important, given the sector’s increasing dependence worldwide. Various activities related to agriculture are vulnerable to multiple risks, which can have severe consequences for farmers’ livelihoods. The purpose of this systematic review is to present a comprehensive analysis of the sources of risk faced by farmers and their choices in adopting risk management strategies worldwide.

Design/methodology/approach

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol was utilized to select relevant literature, and a total of 102 studies were analyzed. Through the use of Venn diagrams and graphical methods, the authors provide a transparent overview of the risks faced by farmers and the adoption of risk management strategies in developed and developing countries.

Findings

From the analysis, the authors found that, in terms of risk management strategies, diversification, reserve credit and accumulated assets are frequently used in developing countries, while developed countries tend to rely on future/forward contracts, crop insurance and hedging. Diversification is the most widely used risk management strategy across both developed and developing countries. Our study also highlights the different perceptions of weather-related risks among growers in developed and developing countries.

Practical implications

This systematic review provides valuable insights into the risks associated with agriculture and farmers' strategies in managing these risks, which could inform policy decisions and promote sustainable agricultural practices. For instance, understanding the individualistic nature of farmers' risk perception and the varying risk sources and management strategies depending on the locality and provide assistance to the farmers accordingly.

Originality/value

The paper explains how farmers behave during uncertainty in terms of risk perception and their decision to adopt risk management strategies in developed and developing countries.

Details

Management & Sustainability: An Arab Review, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2752-9819

Keywords

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