Search results

The case describes a hypothetical hedge fund manager who is examining whether to invest in bitcoin. The case discusses potential risks and rewards of investing in bitcoin, the role of bitcoin and digital currencies more broadly, and financial innovation in the space, such as ICOs. It can be taught as part of a second-year MBA elective course in investments, financial institutions/capital markets, or fintech.

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

The present study distinguishes itself by pioneering an innovative framework that integrates key elements of prospect theory and the fundamental principles of electronic word of mouth (EWOM) to forecast Bitcoin/USD price fluctuations using Twitter sentiment analysis.

We utilized Twitter data as our primary data source. We meticulously collected a dataset consisting of over 3 million tweets spanning a nine-year period, from 2013 to 2022, covering a total of 3,215 days with an average daily tweet count of 1,000. The tweets were identified by utilizing the “bitcoin” and/or “btc” keywords through the snscrape python library. Diverging from conventional approaches, we introduce four distinct variables, encompassing normalized positive and negative sentiment scores as well as sentiment variance. These refinements markedly enhance sentiment analysis within the sphere of financial risk management.

Our findings highlight the substantial impact of negative sentiments in driving Bitcoin price declines, in contrast to the role of positive sentiments in facilitating price upswings. These results underscore the critical importance of continuous, real-time monitoring of negative sentiment shifts within the cryptocurrency market.

Our study holds substantial significance for both risk managers and investors, providing a crucial tool for well-informed decision-making in the cryptocurrency market. The implications drawn from our study hold notable relevance for financial risk management.

We present an innovative framework combining prospect theory and core principles of EWOM to predict Bitcoin price fluctuations through analysis of Twitter sentiment. Unlike conventional methods, we incorporate distinct positive and negative sentiment scores instead of relying solely on a single compound score. Notably, our pioneering sentiment analysis framework dissects sentiment into separate positive and negative components, advancing our comprehension of market sentiment dynamics. Furthermore, it equips financial institutions and investors with a more detailed and actionable insight into the risks associated not only with Bitcoin but also with other assets influenced by sentiment-driven market dynamics.

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance approach.

Purpose: Cryptocurrencies are considered a new asset class by multiasset portfolio managers. Hence, we examine the AMH and cointegration in the cryptocurrency market to know whether select cryptocurrencies can be diversified.

Findings: We find that cryptocurrencies are efficient and there is a long-run relationship among constituent series, and there is no short-run causality derived from bitcoin, Ethereum and litecoin to bitcoin, while stellar and Dogecoin have short-run causality to bitcoin.

Originality/Value: This chapter is different from the existing one as this is the first study in which the AMH and Johansen cointegration test are applied to check the efficiency and relationship of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero, Stellar, litecoin and Dogecoin.

This chapter presents an overview of the Bitcoin and its impacts on the environment and economics from the viewpoint of carrying out a systematic analysis of the literature related to the environmental and economic effect of digital currency. It is aimed to summarize and critically examine the points of view regarding Bitcoin mining, considering its effects on global warming and the social environment, employing peer-reviewed data associated through literatures. As a result, this study provides the chance to analyze the set of knowledge regarding the effects of the Bitcoin mining procedure on the ecosystem in regard to energy use and CO₂ emissions regarding unit root tests and causality test based on nonlinear models. The results show that there exists a nonlinear causal relationship between statistics on Bitcoin mining and the CO₂ emissions. The results also imply that Bitcoin remains to be a tool utilized in the economic environment for a range of objectives despite high energy consumption and some negative environmental impact within the scope of renewable energy; hence, authorities would take Bitcoin mining impacts into account to reduce CO₂ emissions.

The purpose of this research is to primarily understand how crypto traders can use the Bitcoin as a hedge or safe haven asset to reduce their losses from crypto trading. The study also aims to provide insights to crypto investors (portfolio managers) who wish to maintain a crypto portfolio for the medium term and can use the Bitcoin to minimize their losses. The findings of this research can also be used by policymakers and regulators for accommodating the Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, considering its safe haven nature.

This study applies the cross-quantilogram (CQ) approach introduced by Han et al. (2016) to examine the safe-haven property of the Bitcoin against the other selected crypto assets. This method is robust for estimating bivariate volatility spillover between two markets given unusual distributions and extreme observations. The CQ method is capable of calculating the magnitude of the shock from one market to another under different quantiles. Additionally, this method is suitable for fat-tailed distributions. Finally, the method allows anticipating long lags to evaluate the strength of the relationship between two variables in terms of durations and directions simultaneously.

The Bitcoin acts as a weak safe haven asset for a majority of new crypto assets for the entire study period. These results hold even during greed and fear sentiments in the crypto market. The Bitcoin has the ability to protect crypto assets from sharp downturns in the crypto market and hence gives crypto traders some respite when trading in a highly volatile asset class.

This study is the first attempt to show how the Bitcoin can act as a true matriarch/patriarch for crypto assets and protect them during market turmoil. This study presents a clear and concise representation of this relationship via heatmaps constructed from CQ analysis, depicting the quantile dependence association between the Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The uniqueness of this study also lies in the fact that it assesses the protective properties of the Bitcoin not only for the entire sample period but also specifically during periods of greed and fear in the crypto market.

This chapter introduces the concept of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, or litecoin. The chapter describes the history of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and the quest for secure digital money, followed by a discussion of cryptocurrency as a phenomenon. Next, it discusses individual cryptocurrencies, including an overview of bitcoin and relevant subgroups, such as so-called forks or privacy coins. It also explains developments such as stablecoins or central bank digital currencies, which are potentially much more in line with bitcoin’s original idea of digital cash. Overall, the chapter provides a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies, their defining characteristics, challenges, and markets.

Blockchains, also known as “distributed ledger technologies” (DLT) are perhaps the emerging innovation that, in the years leading up to and including 2019, is raising the highest expectations for HRM in the 4.0 business environment. In essence, a blockchain is a very specific type of database, with characteristics that made it the ideal application for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Within the context of digital- or e-HRM, there is potential to improve human resource management (HRM) processes using blockchains for employment screening, credential and educational verification, worker contracts and payments, among others, notwithstanding questions about its efficiency vis-à-vis conventional alternatives (Maurer, 2018; Zielinski, 2018). The research questions examined in this chapter include the following: What are the main characteristics of blockchains? Will they be adopted in a widespread form, specifically by HRM departments? Constructs from Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) theory (Rogers, 2003) are used to inform the Human Resources scholarly and practitioner communities; this robust theory may help companies allocate resources (e.g., budgets, personnel, managerial time, etc.) in an evidence-informed manner. As of this writing, very few blockchain applications, such as credential verification and incident reporting, seem to hold a strong potential for adoption.

One important characteristic of cryptocurrencies has been their high and erratic volatility. To represent this complicated behavior, recent studies have emphasized the use of autoregressive models frequently concluding that generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are the most adequate to overcome the limitations of conventional standard deviation estimates. Some studies have expanded this approach including jumps into the modeling. Following this line of research, and extending previous research, our study analyzes the volatility of Bitcoin employing and comparing some symmetric and asymmetric GARCH model extensions (threshold ARCH (TARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH), asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH), component GARCH (CGARCH), and asymmetric component GARCH (ACGARCH)), under two distributions (normal and generalized error). Additionally, because linear GARCH models can produce biased results if the series exhibit structural changes, once the conditional volatility has been modeled, we identify the best fitting GARCH model applying a Markov switching model to test whether Bitcoin volatility evolves according to two different regimes: high volatility and low volatility. The period of study includes daily series from July 16, 2010 (the earliest date available) to January 24, 2019. Findings reveal that EGARCH model under generalized error distribution provides the best fit to model Bitcoin conditional volatility. According to the Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) Bitcoin’s conditional volatility displays two regimes: high volatility and low volatility.