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1 – 10 of 38Saurabh Sharma, Ipsita Padhi and Sarat Dhal
This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission and developing country characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a calibrated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study fiscal-monetary interaction.
Findings
Debt sits at the center of monetary-fiscal interaction. Under high-debt conditions, the inflation-output trade-off rises with an increase in the strictness with which monetary policy targets inflation, undermining the standard prescription of strict inflation targeting. At the same time, the transmission of monetary policy is also impeded, due to which unconventional monetary policy becomes more appropriate. The need for coordination among the policies gets enhanced in the presence of borrowing cost channel. While the presence of borrowing cost channel increases the need for policy coordination regardless of the debt situation, features like higher share of non-Ricardian households and weaker monetary policy transmission affect monetary-fiscal interaction to a greater extent under high-debt environment.
Originality/value
First, this paper uses inflation-output trade-off as a metric, to analyze fiscal-monetary interaction. Second, this paper considers the impact of developing country characteristics (such as a higher share of non-Ricardian households, impeded monetary policy transmission and supply constraints/borrowing cost channel) on fiscal-monetary interaction. Third, the DSGE model developed in this paper incorporates open market operations that could shed light on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the presence of high fiscal deficit and debt, which is particularly relevant in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourth, the model also permits an investigation into monetary policy transmission under different debt regimes.
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Farzad Taheripour and Wallace E. Tyner
The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two studies  
Abstract
The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two studies – one with United States only ban and one with a global ban. We used a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), for the analysis. This model has been used in hundreds of published papers on trade, energy, land use, and environmental issues. Our use of the model was to estimate the crop yield benefits for the major GMO crops, and then to convert this to a loss if the GMO traits were banned. We then shocked the GTAP model with the yield losses and estimate economic, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts. We found that losing the GM technology would cause commodity and food prices to increase and also bring about a significant increase in GHG emissions. The increase in emissions is caused by the need to convert forest and pasture to compensate for the lost production. Another interesting conclusion of the global ban study is that economic well-being for the United States, the world’s largest GMO user, actually increases with a ban. Many regions that ban or use little GMO varieties like the European Union, India, China, and Japan all see economic well-being decrease. These counterintuitive results are driven mainly by trade patterns. Therefore GMO technology helps agriculture reduce its carbon footprint. Without this technology, agricultural land-use GHG emissions increase as do food prices. Some groups would like to see GMOs banned and also see GHG emissions fall. You cannot have it both ways.
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Roberto Roson and Camille Van der Vorst
This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE…
Abstract
This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. It does so not only by contrasting and assessing the different methodological approaches, and the key findings of the simulation exercises, but also by putting the various contributions in a historical perspective. This is necessary because each CGE-based study should be evaluated while keeping in mind when it was realised, since questions, priorities, expectations have been constantly changing during the spreading of the pandemic.
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Christian Lukineyo Joshi, Helene Maisonnave, Robert Luanda Baroki and Anastasie Bulumba Mariam
The purpose of this study was to show how pro-gender public policies in the agricultural sectors can contribute to the reduction of gender inequalities in the labour market and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to show how pro-gender public policies in the agricultural sectors can contribute to the reduction of gender inequalities in the labour market and the diversification of the Congolese economy.
Design/methodology/approach
Computable general equilibrium model that has been adapted to the Congolese economy from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s SAM.
Findings
The results reveal that policies of increasing women's land allocation and government cash transfers to rural female households contribute to the reduction of inequalities in the labour market. However, only the policy of increasing women’s land allocation improves economic diversification.
Research limitations/implications
The implementation of the policy of government cash transfers to rural women's households comes at a cost to the government. Future studies to look at the most effective mode of financing for this policy. Moreover, the policy of increasing women's land allocation is feasible in the DRC as there is a lot of unused arable land available.
Social implications
In Pillar 1 of the National Strategic Development Plan (PNSD) on Economic Diversification and Transformation, the policy of increasing land allocation to women could be added to the objectives related to strengthening the contribution of agriculture to economic growth and employment creation. In Pillar 3 of the PNSD on Social Development and Human Resource Development, the policy of increasing land allocation to women as well as the policy of increasing government transfers to female rural households could be added to the objectives related to the promotion of employment of youth, women and vulnerable groups.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of its kind for the DRC, which highlights the impact of pro-gender policies on women's employment, particularly in the agricultural sectors and in the diversification of the Congolese economy. This study contributes to policy orientation in DRC. The two policies (increasing land allocation to women and cash transfers to rural women) analysed in this study were chosen in light of the DRC's National Strategic Plan, the first phase of which focuses on promoting employment for vulnerable groups and economic diversification through the development of agricultural sectors.
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Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…
Abstract
Purpose
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.
Findings
The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
Practical implications
As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.
Originality/value
The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.
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Athula Naranpanawa and Jayatilleke Bandara
There is a large body of literature on the link between trade liberalisation, growth and poverty. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between trade and…
Abstract
Purpose
There is a large body of literature on the link between trade liberalisation, growth and poverty. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between trade and regional disparities. The purpose of this paper is to identify and quantify the regional impacts of trade liberalisation, particularly in the war-affected regions and to understand to what extent trade reforms can contribute to the post-war recovery process and long-term economic and political stability in Sri Lanka.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors developed a single country multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sri Lankan economy to meet the need for a detailed country study as emphasised in the recent literature.
Findings
Both short-run and long-run results suggest that all regions including war-affected regions in the country gain from trade liberalisation, although gains are uneven across regions. Furthermore, the results suggest that war-affected regions gain more relative to some other regions in the long run.
Originality/value
According to the best of the authors’ knowledge within country regional impact of trade liberalisation using a multi-regional CGE model has never been attempted for Sri Lanka. The results of this study, even though based on Sri Lankan data, will be relevant to other developing countries engulfed in internal conflicts with regional economic disparities.
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Don Gunasekera, Yiyong Cai and David Newth
The purpose of this paper is to review the key issues surrounding foreign direct investment (FDI) in agriculture, and examine the potential impacts of FDI in African agriculture…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the key issues surrounding foreign direct investment (FDI) in agriculture, and examine the potential impacts of FDI in African agriculture.
Design/methodology/approach
The dynamic Global Trade Analysis Project model (GDyn) is used to analyse the potential impacts of improvements in land productivity and FDI in Africa.
Findings
The results illustrate that combined efforts to improve land productivity and growth in FDI could potentially increase Africa’s share in global agricultural output and exports, particularly with respect to oil seeds, sugar, and cotton.
Originality/value
The authors employ a global economy-wide modelling framework to simulate the effects of growth in FDI in African agriculture.
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Gabriela Ortiz Valverde and Maria C. Latorre
The purpose of this paper is as follows: first, it aims to explain the overall economic implications of the trans-pacific partnership (TPP). Second, it aims to provide an in-depth…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is as follows: first, it aims to explain the overall economic implications of the trans-pacific partnership (TPP). Second, it aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the TPP’s quantitative impact on an upper-middle economy such as Mexico, as well as on the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is performed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
Findings
The results suggest that in the short run, both Mexico and the USA would slightly benefit from the TPP. Tariff reductions would lead to less bilateral trade between Mexico and the USA and the stronger integration of both countries with the rest of the TPP members. The opposite is true after a decrease in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Overall, in terms of the impact on Mexico, trade integration with the rest of the TPP members prevails. This suggests that a TPP without the USA could still be beneficial.
Originality/value
Previous studies on the TPP have mainly focused on its impact for the USA, which is also analysed in the present study. The effects of the TPP are estimated for a broad set of micro and macroeconomic variables, paying particular attention to the reductions of NTBs.
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David C. Finnoff and Arthur J. Caplan
We present a computable general equilibrium model of the interface between the Great Salt Lake (GSL) ecosystem and both the international and regional economy that impacts the…
Abstract
We present a computable general equilibrium model of the interface between the Great Salt Lake (GSL) ecosystem and both the international and regional economy that impacts the ecosystem. International trade is accounted for in the simplest of terms, involving the export of each of the ecosystem's main commodities and importation of a composite good, as well as equilibrium balances in the savings-investment and current accounts. With respect to the ecosystem, the model treats the various representative species as net energy maximizers and bases population dynamics on the period-by-period sizes of surplus net energy. Energy markets – where predators and prey exchange biomass – determine equilibrium energy prices. With respect to the regional economy, we model five production sectors (at the aggregate industry level) – brine cyst harvesters, the mineral-extraction industry, agriculture, recreation, and a composite-good industry – as well as the household sector. By performing dynamic simulations of the joint ecosystem–regional economy model, we isolate the effects of period-by-period stochastic changes in salinity levels and an initial shock to species-population levels on the ecological and economic variables of the model.
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I show that the equilibrium distribution of matches associated with the empirical transferable utility one-to-one matching (TUM) model introduced by Choo and Siow (2006a, 2006b)…
Abstract
I show that the equilibrium distribution of matches associated with the empirical transferable utility one-to-one matching (TUM) model introduced by Choo and Siow (2006a, 2006b) corresponds to the fixed point of system of
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