Search results

This study searches for sentimental herding in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) during the last decade using a state-space model employing cross-section standard deviations of systematic risk (Beta). It has been found that herding toward the market in the BIST-100 is both statistically significant and persistent independently from market fundamentals such as the volatility of returns and the levels of market returns. Herding trends over the sample period indicate that the financial crisis in 2000–2001 appeared to bring about sentimental herding in BIST which was followed by a calm period during which investors turned to fundamentals. Thereafter, we observe a volatile adverse herding pattern till the end of 2011 due to the confusing environment caused by the internal and external events.

Purpose: Investors and portfolio managers can earn profitably when they correctly predict when stock prices will go up or down. For this reason, it is crucial to know the effect levels of the factors that affect stock prices. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the psychological behavior of investors also affects stock prices. Therefore, the study aims to reveal the different sensitivity levels of the stock index against macroeconomic and psychological factors.

Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, dollar rate (USD), euro rate (EURO), time deposit interest rate (IR), gold price (GOLD), industrial production index (IPI), and consumer price index (CPI) (inflation (INF)) were used as macroeconomic factors, while Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and VIX Fear Index (VIX) were used as psychological factors. In addition, the BIST-100 index, which is listed in Borsa Istanbul, was used as the stock index. The sensitivity of the stock index to macroeconomic and psychological factors was investigated using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) method using data from January 2012 to October 2020.

Findings: In the analyses performed using the MARS method, the coefficients of INF, USD, EURO, IR, CCI, and VIX Index were found to be statistically significant and effective on the stock index. Among these variables, INF has the highest effect on stocks. It is followed by USD, IR, EURO, CCI, and VIX. GOLD and IPI variables did not show statistical significance in the model. The most important difference of the MARS model from other regressions is that each factor’s effect on the stock index is analyzed by separating it according to the value of the factor. According to the results obtained from the MARS model: (1) it has been determined that USD, EURO, IR, and CPI have both positive and negative effects on the stock market index and (2) CCI and VIX have been found to have negative effects on stocks. These results provide essential information about how investors who plan to invest in the stock index should take into consideration different macroeconomic and psychological values.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the effects of factors affecting the stock index by decomposing it according to the values it takes. Also, this study provides additional information by listing the factors affecting the stock index in order of importance. These results will help investors, portfolio managers, company executives, and policy-makers understand the stock markets.

Introduction – The rapid flow of information between the markets eliminates the possibility of diversifying the portfolio by bringing the markets closer, and may cause the volatility in a market to spread to another market. In this context, revealing the relationships between conventional and participation markets or financial assets is important in terms of portfolio diversification and risk management.

Purpose – The major aim of this work is to analyse the existence of volatility spillover between conventional stock index and participation index based on the indexes in Turkish Capital Markets. BIST-30 and Katılım-30 indexes are used as the representatives of conventional stock index and participation index, respectively.

Methodology – Firstly, the univariate HYGARCH (1,d,1) parameters are calculated, and secondly, the dynamic equicorrelation (DECO) methodology is applied. DECO model is proposed to simplify structural assumptions by introducing a structure in which all twosomes of returns take the same correlation for a given time period. In this way, DECO model enables to have an optimal portfolio selection in comparison to an unrestricted time varying-dynamic correlation approaches and gives more advanced forecasting ability for the duration of the financial crisis periods compared to the various portfolios.

Findings – There is a strong correlation between BIST-30 and Katılım-30. They are affected by the same shocks. We expect to see different investor behaviours for Katılım-30 and BIST-30. However, they seem to have almost the same investor profile. In addition, there is a causality in both ways and volatility spillover between them.

This study is concerned with markets operating in Turkey in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST), which have been observed and studied in relation to herd behavior. During the research part of the study, the existence of herd behavior was investigated with the help of the daily closing price data of the firms in BIST between January 2011 and December 2017. In the research section of the study, the authors used regression analysis. In the analysis, the authors used the index value of the BIST whole Index. The average value of the index value of BIST whole Index was taken. Then, according to this average, 1% percentile and 5% percentile were taken. In the periods in the 1% percentile (at the dates) the result was that herd behavior was present. The herd behavior was observed for the periods (for dates) included in the percentile of 1%. On the other hand, the results of the analysis for the 5% percentile show that the herd behavior is only seen in the upper extremes.

Introduction: According to the effective market hypothesis, investors act rationally when making an investment decision. The hypothesis assumes that investors invest in a way that maximizes their returns, taking into account the new information received. If the information released on the market is interpreted in the same way by all investors, no investor would be able to earn above the market. This hypothesis is valid in case of efficient markets. In the event that investors show irrational behavior to the information released on the market, the markets move away from efficiency. Overreaction behavior is one of the non-rational behaviors of investors. Overreaction behavior involves investors overreacting by misinterpreting the new information released to the market. According to De Bondt and Thaler’s (1985), overreaction hypothesis in the event that investors overreact to the news coming to the market, after a period the false evaluation, the price of the security is corrected with the reversal movement, without the need of any positive or negative information. Aim: The purpose of this study is to examine investors’ overreaction behavior in mergers and acquisitions. For this purpose, overreaction behavior was analyzed for companies whose stocks are traded on the Borsa Istanbul, which were involved in mergers or acquisitions. Method: In the study, companies that made mergers and acquisitions for the period 2007–2017 were determined, and abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns were calculated by using monthly closing price data of these companies. Moreover, whether investors overreact to the merger and acquisition decision is examined separately for one-, three- and five-year periods. Findings: As a result of the research, it has been observed that there is a reverse return for one-, three-, and five-year periods. However, it has been determined that the overreaction hypothesis is valid for only one year.

Financial manipulation means the modification made knowingly and willfully by businesses in accounting records and transactions, in financial statements, through addition and subtraction, for the purpose of misleading financial information users. Financial manipulations are expected to have an effect on the decisions of financial information users. The present study was established on the basis of two main objectives. The first objective is to determine whether banks, which are Public Interest Entities (PIE), manipulate their financial statements. As for the second objective, it is to reveal whether the detected financial manipulations have an effect on investor decisions. The research conducted to achieve the first objective is based on the examination of independent audit reports for the periods between 2009 and 2017, pertaining to 45 banks registered to the Banks Association of Turkey, in terms of presented opinions. Data acquired from examined reports were subjected to content analysis via the Microsoft Excel program. In line with the second objective of the study, investor numbers for the periods between 2010 and 2017, of 13 banks, which are within the scope of BIST BANK, were included in the analysis, according to data acquired from the Central Registry Agency. Financial statements of banks, with audit reports in which a qualified opinion is expressed, were considered to have been manipulated. SPSS 22.0 statistics pack software was used to analyze whether investment demands toward these banks had an effect on decisions of domestic and foreign investors. In the analysis, frequency and One-Way ANOVA tests were used. In consequence of the analyses conducted, it was determined that, around one fifth of financial statements of PIE banks, pertaining to the periods between 2009 and 2017, were manipulated; it was mostly committed by private banks, and majority of the manipulations were committed due to free provisions made. It was also observed that manipulations did not have an effect on decisions of neither domestic nor foreign investors. The reason behind the latter is the fact that while the level of manipulations in financial statements is significant, it is not a widespread occurrence.

Intraday volatility characteristics throughout the trading week are examined at the emerging Borsa Istanbul (BIST) stock exchange. Using five-minute (and 15-minute) intervals, accentuated intraday volatility patterns at the microstructure level are examined during the stock market open and close in the morning and in the afternoon sessions. Volatility is highest when markets open in the morning. The second highest is during the afternoon open. The third highest is before the market closes for the day. Volatility before the market close has increased in recent years. These characteristics are seen every trading day. There are also differences: Monday returns are lowest, Friday returns are highest, and Monday morning volatility is highest of the entire trading week. Day-of-the-week and intraday accentuated volatility smile anomalies are jointly investigated using the longest intraday sample period in the emerging country stock exchange literature. Investment companies and professionals can utilize the results for risk management and hedging by avoiding highly volatile opening and closing periods. Arbitrageurs, speculators, and risk takers should trade during these highly volatile periods. Heightened volatility is increased difficulty in price discovery, thus inefficiency. Market participants, exchanges, and public prefer efficient markets. The research presents evidence of trading days, and periods during the trading day, when the exchange becomes more efficient. This is the first research that explores day-of-the-week effect from intraday volatility perspective in an emerging market, and provides useful recommendations in designing risk management strategies at market microstructure level.

Introduction: Decision making is always based on several factors which may affect the possible outcomes, especially in financial markets. Instead of having many criteria which may be required for decision making, “Multiple Criteria Decision Making” (MCDM) models might be used as a tool to reduce all criteria into a single one.

Purpose: The aim of this study is to measure the financial performance of commercial banks listed on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) by the MCDM.

Method: To this end, data from 15 different financial ratios from 11 commercial banks were used between the periods of 2002 and 2018. Both TOPSIS and gray relational analysis (GRA) models were used, which are commonly used in the literature for detecting the financial performance of listed banks in BIST based on their consolidated financial statements.

Results: According to the TOPSIS method, while the best bank is QNB Finansbank, HALKB, a public bank, was determined as the best bank using the GRA method. There is no significant correlation between financial performance indicators and market returns obtained by either method, with exceptions. There is no generally significant correlation detected between financial ratios and market returns. Accordingly, it is concluded that the bank stock prices in the study are shaped by the influence of external factors and expectations. The study results include information that can be used for different purposes among bank managers, academics and financial investors.

Introduction: Financial failure is a concept that may arise from many internal and external factors such as operational, financial, and economic items and may incur serious losses. Over-indebtedness arising from managerial misjudgments may cause high financial distress, insufficiency, and bankruptcy. In this regard, determination of effects of capital structure decisions on financial failure risk is crucial.

Aim: The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between capital structure decisions and financial failure risk. For this purpose, data from Borsa İstanbul (BIST) for listed food and beverage companies for the period from 2004 to 2019 is used. Another purpose of this study is to compare the financial failure models considering capital structure theories.

Method: In the study, capital structure decisions are associated with five different financial ratios; while the financial failure risk is proxied by financial failure scores of Altman (1968), Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), Taffler (1983), and Zmijewski (1984). Therefore, five different panel data models are used for testing these hypotheses.

Findings: The results of panel data analysis reveal that capital structure decisions have statistically significant effects on financial failure risk for all models; however, those effects vary from one financial failure model to another. Also, the results show that in the models in which financial failure risk is proxied by the Altman (1968) and Taffler (1983) scores, the aggressive financial policies increase the financial failure risk. However, regarding the models in which financial failure risk is proxied by the Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), and Zmijewski (1984) scores, aggressive financial policies decrease the financial failure risk.

Originality of the Study: To the best of our knowledge, this chapter is original and important in terms of revealing the effects of capital structure decisions on the financial failure risk and comparing the financial failure models.

Implications: The results revealed that the risk of financial failure models represented by Altman (1968) and Taffler (1983) scores are found to be statistically stronger and more successful in meeting theoretical expectations compared to other models. Therefore, it would be more appropriate to refer Altman’s (1968) and Taffler’s (1983) financial failure models in financial failure risk measurements.

The purpose of the study is to present evidence on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption and earnings quality relationship on an emerging country context focusing on firm characteristics.

To measure loss avoidance, the earnings distribution approach is followed. Data includes all the nonfinancial firms listed on the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) for the period covering 1998–2010. The sample is divided into subsegments according to size and leverage, considering the potential impact of different financial reporting incentives. Furthermore, mandatory and voluntary adopters are examined separately.

The results indicate lower loss aversion in the post-IFRS period. Furthermore, we found that incentives dominate accounting standards in determining financial reporting quality. The decrease in loss aversion after IFRS adoption is more significant for large firms compared to small firms, low leverage firms compared to high leverage firms, and for mandatory IFRS adopter firms compared to voluntary IFRS adopters.

Research provides inconsistent evidence on the relationship between IFRS adoption and earnings quality. Turkey represents an interesting environment to test the impact of IFRS adoption, as the Turkish accounting system has followed a historical path from a Continental European accounting system to an Anglo-Saxon accounting system. The current Turkish accounting system exhibits features of both these systems. Additionally, IFRS adoption was optional in 2003 and mandatory in 2005 in line with EU regulations, and the changes in the reporting environment are supported by the regulatory developments and institutional changes in Turkey.