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Book part
Publication date: 29 December 2016

A. Can Inci

Intraday volatility characteristics throughout the trading week are examined at the emerging Borsa Istanbul (BIST) stock exchange. Using five-minute (and 15-minute) intervals…

Abstract

Intraday volatility characteristics throughout the trading week are examined at the emerging Borsa Istanbul (BIST) stock exchange. Using five-minute (and 15-minute) intervals, accentuated intraday volatility patterns at the microstructure level are examined during the stock market open and close in the morning and in the afternoon sessions. Volatility is highest when markets open in the morning. The second highest is during the afternoon open. The third highest is before the market closes for the day. Volatility before the market close has increased in recent years. These characteristics are seen every trading day. There are also differences: Monday returns are lowest, Friday returns are highest, and Monday morning volatility is highest of the entire trading week. Day-of-the-week and intraday accentuated volatility smile anomalies are jointly investigated using the longest intraday sample period in the emerging country stock exchange literature. Investment companies and professionals can utilize the results for risk management and hedging by avoiding highly volatile opening and closing periods. Arbitrageurs, speculators, and risk takers should trade during these highly volatile periods. Heightened volatility is increased difficulty in price discovery, thus inefficiency. Market participants, exchanges, and public prefer efficient markets. The research presents evidence of trading days, and periods during the trading day, when the exchange becomes more efficient. This is the first research that explores day-of-the-week effect from intraday volatility perspective in an emerging market, and provides useful recommendations in designing risk management strategies at market microstructure level.

Article
Publication date: 5 November 2021

Osman Ulas Aktas, Lawrence Kryzanowski and Jie Zhang

This paper aims to analyze the impact of price-limit hits by hit type and when such hits start and stop using intraday trades and quotes at a one-second frequency for firms…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the impact of price-limit hits by hit type and when such hits start and stop using intraday trades and quotes at a one-second frequency for firms included in the BIST-50 index during the 13-months starting with March 2008. Like the recent COVID-19 period, this period includes the heightened stress in global financial markets in September 2008.

Design/methodology/approach

Using intra-day trades and quotes at a one-second frequency, the authors examine the market effects of price limits for firms included in the BIST-50 index during the global financial crisis. The authors compare the values of various metrics for 60 min centered on price-limit hit periods. The authors conduct robustness tests using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with trade-by-trade and with 3-min returns.

Findings

The findings are supportive of the following hypotheses: magnet price effects, greater informational asymmetric effects of market quality and each version of price discovery. Results are robust using samples differentiated by cross-listed status, same-day quotes instead of transaction prices and equidistant and trade-by-trade returns.

Originality/value

The authors use intraday data to reduce measurement error that is particularly pronounced when daily data are used to assess price limits that start and/or stop during a trading session. The authors contribute to the micro-structure literature by using ARIMA models with trade-by-trade and 3-min returns to alleviate some bias due to the autocorrelations in returns around price-limit hits in the presence of a magnet effect. The authors include some recent regulation changes in various countries to illustrate the importance of circuit breakers using price limits during COVID-19.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 May 2023

Jack Field and A. Can Inci

As cryptocurrencies continue to gain viability as an asset class, institutional investors and publicly traded firms have started taking investment positions in digital currencies…

4104

Abstract

Purpose

As cryptocurrencies continue to gain viability as an asset class, institutional investors and publicly traded firms have started taking investment positions in digital currencies. What firms may not be considering, however, is the effect these assets may have on their risk profiles. This study aims to (1) measure the effect of cryptocurrencies on the risk and return characteristics of publicly traded companies; (2) decipher the motives behind holding cryptocurrencies as an asset class; and (3) determine whether one reason for holding is more effective than another. To conduct this research, the four largest publicly traded holders of cryptocurrency as well as four of the most prominent cryptocurrencies are explored.

Design/methodology/approach

The cross-sectional analysis approach has been used to analyze the daily returns, volatility, betas and Sharpe Ratios of firms during periods without cryptocurrency strategies and during periods with cryptocurrency strategies.

Findings

The impact of the cryptocurrency asset class on common stock performance and corporate disclosures are documented. The importance of risk disclosures on cryptocurrency holdings is emphasized: Firms must better inform their stakeholders through comprehensive disclosures in financial statements. Firms utilize cryptocurrencies for various reasons such as treasury management tools or as direct sources of income. Consequently, the impact on returns and risks varies substantially.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies on cryptocurrency investments in the treasury departments of publicly traded companies. The study contributes to the literature by extracting relevant information regarding company risk reporting and cryptocurrency risk at firms. The conclusions also promote firm transparency with detailed reporting of cryptocurrency holding risks.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2016

Narain, Narander Kumar Nigam and Piyush Pandey

The purpose of this paper is to understand the patterns of the implied volatility (IV) of the Indian index option market and its relationship with moneyness (called the volatility

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to understand the patterns of the implied volatility (IV) of the Indian index option market and its relationship with moneyness (called the volatility smile). Its goal is also to ascertain the determinants of IV.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, IVs were computed from the daily call and put data of CNX Nifty index options from April 2004 to March 2014. The patterns of IVs were analysed using univariate parametric tests. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to understand the relationships observed. Resultantly, vector autoregressions were performed to assess the determinants of IV.

Findings

The results suggested that there was asymmetric volatility across time and strike prices using alternative measures of moneyness. Furthermore, it was found that the IV of lower strike prices was significantly higher (lower) than that of higher strike prices for call (put) options. Put IV was observed to be higher than call IV irrespective of any attributes. The results further showed that current-month contracts have significantly higher IV than those for next month and those were followed by far-month contracts. Nifty futures’ volumes and momentum were found to be significant determinants of IV.

Practical implications

The behaviour of the volatility smile is important when accounting for the Vega risks in the portfolios of hedge fund managers. While taking a position, besides the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model’s input factors, investors must consider the previous behaviour of volatility, a market’s microstructures and its liquidity for a put option contract. They must also consider the attributes of the underlying for a call option contract.

Originality/value

This is the first decadal study (the longest span of data for any international study on this subject) to confirm the existence of the volatility smile for the index options market in India. It examines and confirms the smile’s asymmetry patterns for different definitions of moneyness, as well as option types, the tenure of options contracts and the different phases of market conditions. It further helps to identify the determinants of IV and so has renewed importance for traders.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 29 December 2016

Abstract

Details

Risk Management in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-451-8

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2023

Hongxia Tong, Asadullah Khaskheli and Amna Masood

Given the evolving market integration, this study aims to explore the connectedness of 12 real estate investment trusts (REITs) during the COVID-19 period.

Abstract

Purpose

Given the evolving market integration, this study aims to explore the connectedness of 12 real estate investment trusts (REITs) during the COVID-19 period.

Design/methodology/approach

The connectedness of 12 REITs was examined by considering three sample periods: full period, COVID peak period and COVID recovery period by using the quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) approach.

Findings

The findings ascertain that REIT markets are sensitive to COVID, revealing significant connectedness during each sample period. The USA and The Netherlands are the major shock transmitters; thus, these countries are relatively better options for the predictive behavior of the rest of the REIT markets. In contrast, Hong Kong and Japan are the least favorable REIT markets with higher shock-receiving potential.

Research limitations/implications

The study recommends implications for real estate industry agents and investors to evaluate and anticipate the direction of return connectedness at each phase of the pandemic, such that they can incorporate those global REITs less vulnerable to unplanned crises. Apart from these implications, the study is limited to the global REIT markets and only focused on the period of COVID-19, excluding the concept of other financial and health crises.

Originality/value

This study uses a novel approach of the quantile-based VAR to determine the connectedness among REITs. Furthermore, the present work is a pioneer study because it is targeting different time periods of the pandemic. Additionally, the outcomes of the study are valuable for investors, policymakers and portfolio managers to formulate future development strategies and consolidate REITs during the period of crisis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 September 2024

Hind Lebdaoui, Ikram Kiyadi, Fatima Zahra Bendriouch, Youssef Chetioui, Firdaous Lebdaoui and Zainab Alhayki

The current research aims to investigate the impact of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) evolution, government stringency measures and economic resilience on stock market volatility in…

Abstract

Purpose

The current research aims to investigate the impact of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) evolution, government stringency measures and economic resilience on stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging markets. Other macroeconomic factors were also taken into account.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on financial data from 10 selected MENA countries, we tested an integrated framework that has not yet been explored in prior research. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (E-GARCH) was adopted to analyze data from March 2020 to February 2022.

Findings

Our research illustrates the direct and indirect effects of the virus outbreak on stock market stability and reports that economic resilience could alleviate the volatility shock. This finding is robust across the various proxies of economic resilience used in this study. We also argue that the negative impact of the pandemic on equity market variation gets more pronounced in countries with higher level of stringency scores.

Practical implications

Policymakers ought to strengthen their economic structures and reinforce the economic governance at the national level to gain existing and potential investors’ trust and ensure lower stock market volatilities in times of crisis. Our study also recommends some key economic factors to consider while establishing efficient policies to tackle unexpected shocks and prevent financial meltdowns.

Originality/value

Our findings add to the evolving literature on the reaction of economic and financial markets to the sanitary crisis, particularly in developing countries where research is still scarce. This study is the first of its kind to investigate the stock market reaction to stringency measures in the understudied MENA region.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2024

Simran and Anil K. Sharma

This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between uncertainty indicators and volatility of commodity futures, with a specific focus on agriculture and energy sectors.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between uncertainty indicators and volatility of commodity futures, with a specific focus on agriculture and energy sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analyse the volatility of Indian agriculture and energy futures using the GARCH-MIDAS model, taking into account different types of uncertainty factors. The evaluation of out-sample predictive capability involves the application of out-sample R-squared test and computation of various loss functions.

Findings

The research outcomes underscore the significant impact of diverse uncertainty factors such as domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU), global EPU (GEPU), US EPU and geopolitical risk (GPR) on long-run volatility of Indian energy and agriculture (agri) futures. Additionally, the study demonstrates that GPR exhibits superior predictive capability for crude oil futures volatility, while domestic EPU stands out as an effective predictor for agri futures, particularly castor seed and guar gum.

Practical implications

The study offers practical implications for market participants and policymakers to adopt a comprehensive perspective, incorporating diverse uncertainty factors, for informed decision-making and effective risk management in commodity markets.

Originality/value

The research makes an inaugural attempt to examine the impact of domestic and global uncertainty indicators on modelling and predicting volatility in energy and agri futures. The distinctive feature of considering an emerging market also adds a novel dimension to the research landscape.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 June 2018

A. Can Inci

The purpose of this paper is to study the efficiency of different oil and gas markets. Most previous studies examined the issue using low frequency date sampled at monthly…

1218

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the efficiency of different oil and gas markets. Most previous studies examined the issue using low frequency date sampled at monthly, weekly, or daily frequencies. In this study, 30-minute intraday data are used to explore efficiency in energy markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Sophisticated statistical analysis techniques such as Granger-causality regressions, augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregressions are used to explore the transmission of information between oil and gas energy markets.

Findings

This study provides evidence for efficiency in energy markets. The new information that arrives either to futures markets or spot markets is digested correctly, completely, and in a fast manner, and is propagated to the other market. The evidence indicates high efficiency.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first papers that uses 30-minute interval intraday data to investigate efficiency in oil and gas commodity markets.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Shalini Velappan

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging from equities, commodities, real estate, currencies and bonds.

Design/methodology/approach

It used a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model to capture the dynamic changes in covariance and volatility correlation, thus offering empirical insights into the co-volatility dynamics. Unlike conventional research on price or return transmission, this study directly models the time-varying covariance and volatility correlation.

Findings

The study uncovers pronounced co-volatility movements between cryptocurrencies and specific indices such as GSCI Energy, GSCI Commodity, Dow Jones 1 month forward and U.S. 10-year TIPS. Notably, these movements surpass those observed with precious metals, industrial metals and global equity indices across various regions. Interestingly, except for Japan, equity indices in the USA, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, India and China exhibit a co-volatility movement. These findings challenge the existing literature on cryptocurrencies and provide intriguing evidence regarding their co-volatility dynamics.

Originality

This study significantly contributes to applying asset pricing models in cryptocurrency markets by explicitly addressing price and volatility dynamics aspects. Using the stochastic volatility model, the research adding methodological contribution effectively captures cryptocurrency volatility's inherent fluctuations and time-varying nature. While previous literature has primarily focused on bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies, this study examines the stochastic volatility properties of a wide range of cryptocurrency indices. Furthermore, the study expands its scope by examining global asset markets, allowing for a comprehensive analysis considering the broader context in which cryptocurrencies operate. It bridges the gap between traditional asset pricing models and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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