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1 – 10 of 228Fouad Jamaani and Abdullah M. Alawadhi
Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock…
Abstract
Purpose
Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.
Findings
This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.
Practical implications
This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.
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Ezekiel Olamide Abanikanda and James Temitope Dada
Motivated by the negative effect of external shocks on the domestic economy, this study explores the role of financial sector development in absorbing the effect of external…
Abstract
Purpose
Motivated by the negative effect of external shocks on the domestic economy, this study explores the role of financial sector development in absorbing the effect of external shocks on macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria.
Design/methodology/approach
Autoregressive distributed lag and fully modify ordinary least square are used to examine the moderating effect of financial development in the link between external shocks and macroeconomic volatilities in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. External shock is proxy using oil price shock, and financial development is proxy by domestic credit to the private sector and market capitalisation. At the same time, macroeconomic volatility is proxy by output and inflation volatilities. Macroeconomic volatilities are generated using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH 1,1).
Findings
The results indicate that domestic credit to the private sector significantly reduces output and inflation volatilities in Nigeria in the short and long run. However, market capitalisation promotes macroeconomic volatility. More specifically, financial development indicators play different roles in curtaining macroeconomic volatilities. The results also reveal that external shocks stimulate macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria in the short and long run. Nevertheless, the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic volatilities are reduced when the role of financial development is incorporated.
Practical implications
This study, therefore, concludes that strong financial sector development serves as a significant shock absorber in reducing the adverse effect of external shock on the domestic economy.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the extant studies by introducing a country-specific analysis into the empirical examination of how financial development can moderate the influence of external shock on macroeconomic volatilities.
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Oğuz Kara, Levent Altinay, Mehmet Bağış, Mehmet Nurullah Kurutkan and Sanaz Vatankhah
Entrepreneurial activity is a phenomenon that increases the economic growth of countries and improves their social welfare. The economic development levels of countries have…
Abstract
Purpose
Entrepreneurial activity is a phenomenon that increases the economic growth of countries and improves their social welfare. The economic development levels of countries have significant effects on these entrepreneurial activities. This research examines which institutional and macroeconomic variables explain early-stage entrepreneurship activities in developed and developing economies.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted panel data analysis on the data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveys covering the years 2009–2018.
Findings
First, the authors' results reveal that cognitive, normative and regulatory institutions and macroeconomic factors affect early-stage entrepreneurial activity in developed and developing countries differently. Second, the authors' findings indicate that cognitive, normative and regulatory institutions affect early-stage entrepreneurship more positively in developed than developing countries. Finally, the authors' results report that macroeconomic factors are more effective in early-stage entrepreneurial activity in developing countries than in developed countries.
Originality/value
This study provides a better understanding of the components that help explain the differences in entrepreneurship between developed and developing countries regarding institutions and macroeconomic factors. In this way, it contributes to developing entrepreneurship literature with the theoretical achievements of combining institutional theory and macroeconomic indicators with entrepreneurship literature.
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Evangelia Avgeri and Maria Psillaki
The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the…
Abstract
Purpose
The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.
Findings
The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.
Practical implications
The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.
Originality/value
This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.
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Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong
The study evaluates the effects of governance and other regulatory structures on the development of financial institutions in the subregion of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Abstract
Purpose
The study evaluates the effects of governance and other regulatory structures on the development of financial institutions in the subregion of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Design/methodology/approach
Data for the analyses were compiled from relevant sources from 1996 to 2019 from a sample of 36 countries in the subregion. Empirical analyses were carried out using the Prais-Winsten panel corrected standard errors panel estimation technique augmented by pooled ordinary least squares with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) standard errors model.
Findings
Findings from the study suggest that governance and institutional quality index, as well as individual governance and regulatory variables, have positive effect on the development of financial institutions among economies in SSA. Further empirical estimates show that output growth volatility has negative moderating impact on the relationship between effective governance, control of corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality, voice and accountability, and development of financial institutions. Additionally, the results show that during periods of heightened macroeconomic risk, financial institutions could benefit from improved governance and effective regulatory structures.
Originality/value
Compared to related studies that have reviewed the discourse on financial institutions, this study rather focuses on how governance structures and institutions influence development of financial institutions instead of the impact of financial institution on the broader economy. The authors further augment this interaction by examining how the relationship in question may be moderated by macroeconomic shocks.
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Umar Farooq, Ahmad A. Al-Naimi, Muhammad Irfanullah Arfeen and Mohammad Ahmad Alnaimat
The current analysis aims to explore the role of cash holdings in the nexus of national governance and capital investment (CIN).
Abstract
Purpose
The current analysis aims to explore the role of cash holdings in the nexus of national governance and capital investment (CIN).
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, the authors sample the nonfinancial enterprises from 5 Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) economies and employ system generalized method of moments(GMM) models as an estimation technique.
Findings
The empirical analysis infers that national governance has a positive relationship with CIN and a negative relationship with cash holdings. The cash holdings negatively determine CIN. However, the cash holdings show a positive relationship with CIN in the presence of the national governance index (NGI).
Research limitations/implications
The important policy layout of the current analysis is that corporate managers should reduce cash holdings during better governance situations. Alternatively, corporate managers can disentangle the negative impact of bad country governance conditions on CIN by holding more cash.
Originality/value
The study is innovative as it explores mediating impact of cash holdings in the NGI-CIN nexus.
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Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.
Findings
The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.
Research limitations/implications
This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.
Practical implications
This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.
Originality/value
The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.
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Pratik Modi, Vivek Pandey and Abhi Bhattacharya
This research investigates the impact of strategic research and development (R&D) (one led by a firm’s innovation orientation) on stock market performance during the economic…
Abstract
Purpose
This research investigates the impact of strategic research and development (R&D) (one led by a firm’s innovation orientation) on stock market performance during the economic disruption caused by the 2016 demonetization of high-value currency notes in India. It shows how firms’ strategic focus on innovation and integrated R&D initiatives can help mitigate shareholders’ losses and protect market value during negative macroeconomic shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
We analyzed financial and administrative data from firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) 500 index and used the Fama French market model with appropriate instruments accounting for possible endogeneity to identify the impact. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we conducted robustness checks with alternate event windows, estimation methods, and variable measurements.
Findings
Strategic R&D plays a crucial role in building resilience against macroeconomic shocks. It effectively mitigated shareholders’ losses in the immediate aftermath of the shock, with an elasticity of abnormal returns of 7.65% on day zero, 13.1% during the first five days and 10.5% after the first fortnight. We also find that firms that are business-to-business (B2B), as well as those that are older and less leveraged, are better able to combat such a shock.
Research limitations/implications
The study looked at one shock, namely demonetization. Future research is needed to demonstrate the generalizability of results during other macroeconomic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic. The study focuses on relatively near-term impacts, leaving the long-term value-creation effects of strategic R&D unexplored.
Practical implications
Innovation orientation acts as a structural enabler, allowing firms to make strategic R&D investments that mitigate losses during macroeconomic shocks. It explains that managers should avoid myopically managing R&D investments and align them with the firm’s innovation focus to enhance value creation.
Social implications
While the currency demonetization was widely considered to be detrimental for firms as an unannounced negative monetary shock, our research shows that firms with high levels of strategic R&D were successfully able to counteract such a shock.
Originality/value
This is the first study to examine the short-term loss mitigation impact of firms’ focus on innovation and strategic R&D. It emphasizes the role of innovation-focused strategies during economic crises.
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The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders…
Abstract
Purpose
The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach.
Findings
The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis.
Originality/value
The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.
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Robertico Croes, Valeriya Shapoval, Manuel Rivera, Monika Bąk and Piotr Zientara
The study aims to delve into the influence of tourism on the happiness of city residents, grounded in the overarching concept of livability. It posits that prioritizing residents’…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to delve into the influence of tourism on the happiness of city residents, grounded in the overarching concept of livability. It posits that prioritizing residents’ happiness is crucial for effectively addressing cities’ challenges in balancing development and distinctiveness. The study pursues three primary objectives: first, establishing a potential correlation between city tourism and residents’ happiness; second, examining the contributing factors to this correlation and third, identifying potential mediators that influence the connection between tourism development and residents’ happiness.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a quantitative single-case design and partial least square analysis, the study underscores the intricate nature of various tourism development components. It specifically explores the roles of cognitive flexibility and social comparison in shaping the relationship between city tourism and happiness.
Findings
The findings make a distinctive contribution by revealing that not all tourism domains contribute positively to happiness. Furthermore, it sheds light on how tourism development impacts the emotional and cognitive dimensions of happiness, emphasizing the adverse effects of inequality and feelings of insecurity.
Research limitations/implications
The study acknowledges certain constraints, including its employment of a cross-sectional design, the issue of generalizability, potential sampling bias and the reliance on subjective measurements when evaluating constructs like happiness and satisfaction with life. Using self-reported data introduces susceptibility to social desirability bias and individual perceptual differences, potentially resulting in measurement inaccuracies. Nevertheless, despite these limitations, the study’s findings offer valuable insights that contribute to both theoretical advancement and the realm of urban management.
Practical implications
The findings elucidated through the mediation analyses conducted for hypotheses three to seven shed light on the significant roles played by mental adaptation and social comparison mechanisms in shaping individuals’ happiness. These insights substantially enhance our understanding of this field. Particularly, the dimensions of social and environmental impact within tourism appear to counterbalance the positive effects stemming from the economic and cultural aspects. This suggests a scenario where an excessive focus on tourism development could potentially undermine the overall livability of the city. These outcomes further indicate the necessity for proactive interventions by destination managers. Their efforts should be directed toward enhancing the environmental and social domains, aiming to reinvigorate the sense of community among residents, which appears to be gradually waning.
Social implications
The outcomes of this study emphasize the utmost significance of prioritizing residents’ happiness above mere considerations of economic growth when formulating efficacious strategies for tourism. By concentrating on the happiness of the local population, a harmonious resonance is established with Sustainable Development Goal 11, which advocates for the creation of habitable cities founded upon the principle that “a city that is not good for its citizens is not good for tourists.” This alignment underscores the interconnected nature of residents’ happiness and the sustainable development of tourism. Moreover, residents’ happiness plays a pivotal role in addressing the challenge that cities face in harmonizing growth and their uniqueness, ensuring competitiveness and sustainability.
Originality/value
The research underscores the need for a people-oriented perspective in urban planning and tourism development initiatives. The study identifies diverse factors impacting residents’ happiness in city tourism, highlighting the complex interplay of environmental, cultural and socioeconomic elements. It emphasizes income’s role but underscores nonmaterial factors and individual preferences. Overall, the study offers timely and valuable insights into the intricate connection between tourism development, residents’ happiness, living conditions and human perception, guiding urban planners and stakeholders.
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