Search results

The housing market in Kenya continues to experience an excessive imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance renders the housing market volatile, and stakeholders lose repeatedly. The purpose of the study was to forecast housing prices (HPs) in Kenya using simple and complex regression models to assess the best model for projecting the HPs in Kenya.

The study used time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited. Linear regression, multiple regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models regression techniques were used to model HPs.

The study concludes that the performance of the housing market is very sensitive to changes in the economic indicators, and therefore, the key players in the housing market should consider the performance of the economy during the project feasibility studies and appraisals. From the results, it can be deduced that complex models outperform simple models in forecasting HPs in Kenya. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model performs the best in forecasting HPs considering its lowest root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and bias proportion coefficient. ARIMA models perform dismally in forecasting HPs, and therefore, we conclude that HP is not a self-projecting variable.

A model for projecting HPs could be a game changer if applied during the project appraisal stage by the developers and project managers. The study thoroughly compared the various regression models to ascertain the best model for forecasting the prices and revealed that complex models perform better than simple models in forecasting HPs. The study recommends a VAR model in forecasting HPs considering its lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE and bias proportion coefficient compared to other models. The model, if used in collaboration with the already existing hedonic models, will ensure that the investments in the housing markets are well-informed, and hence, a reduction in economic losses arising from poor market forecasting techniques. However, these study findings are only applicable to the commercial housing market i.e. houses for sale and rent.

While more research has been done on HP projections, this study was based on a comparison of simple and complex regression models of projecting HPs. A total of five models were compared in the study: the simple regression model, multiple regression model, ARIMA model, ARDL model and VAR model. The findings reveal that complex models outperform simple models in projecting HPs. Nonetheless, the study also used nine macroeconomic indicators in the model-building process. Granger causality test reveals that only household income (HHI), gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rates (EXCR) and private capital inflows have a significant effect on the changes in HPs. Nonetheless, the study adds two little-known indicators in the projection of HPs, which are the EXCR and HHI.

Using data from a continuous and ongoing cross-sectional web survey on hospitalisation service experiences in two Italian regions, the authors used multilevel and multivariate logistic regression models to identify factors related to users' demographics, emotional and informative support, technical and physical aspects of the provision, influencing satisfaction and willingness-to-recommend, before and during a crisis.

The value-in-use, defined in terms of a positive or negative value given by the experience with services, can be evaluated by users and influenced by the context of provision. The authors tested whether and how the value-in-use of services changed in a context of crisis. This study is applied to the healthcare sector during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, by evaluating the impact of the pandemic on hospitalisation experience.

Overall, analyses of 8,712 questionnaires found a greater value after the pandemic spread. In a time of crisis, technical and informative aspects of care were found to be most valued by patients that may recognise the extraordinary professionalism of workers during the crisis.

This study empirically suggests that context can affect the evaluation of value-in-use by patients during unprecedented circumstances, producing additional value-in-context.

These findings imply that during critical periods where there is less scope for expressions of gratitude and appreciation towards front-line workers, user-reported data can be used for motivating professionals and increase resilience. These results reiterate the need to continue collecting and reporting the service users' voices, including as activity within plans for managing challenging situations.

The level of healthcare system distress, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, positively affects patients' propensity to recommend, which the authors suggest is driven by healthcare services' feelings of reverse compassion. These findings imply that during critical periods where there is less scope for expressions of gratitude and appreciation towards front-line workers, user-reported data can be used for motivating professionals and increase resilience, which can have positive social implications. These results reiterate the need to continue collecting and reporting the service users' voices, including as activity within plans for managing challenging situations.

Research based on the intersection of theoretical and empirical research regarding value-in-use, value-in-context and service quality measured through user experience is scarce, in particular in the healthcare sector. The authors' findings set the direction for future research on the influence of context on value creation and value creation's perception by users, on the concept of reverse compassion and on reverse compassion's impact on organisational well-being, particularly in times of crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how the failed finance companies in Sri Lanka used fair value accounting practices as an opportunistic earnings management practice to launder money under weak corporate governance structures.

This paper uses a qualitative design under the philosophy of interpretivism. The case study research strategy is used inductively to investigate how fair value accounting had been used for money laundering.

The dishonest intention of major shareholders and board of directors had forced failed companies to misuse fair value accounting to manipulate performance and use them for personal benefits which were detrimental to the depositors and stability of the companies. The weak corporate governance structures which were developed because of regulatory forbearance were influential for manipulations. The concentrated ownership had reduced agency conflicts between shareholders and managers because major shareholders were the members of the board of directors. The appointed committees were not effective because of an inadequate number of independent directors with sufficient expertise. The reduced agency conflict between shareholders and managers has exaggerated the agency conflict with depositors. Therefore, it is recommended to dilute ownership concentration to establish good corporate governance structures and make stable institutions.

This study does not discuss the dishonest fair value accounting practices of all licensed finance companies because of the sensitivity of the matter for surviving companies.

This paper is an original work of the authors which discusses how fair value accounting practices had been used to launder money in failed finance companies in Sri Lanka as an emerging market context.

The purpose of this study is to describe a comparative study of the perceptions of users and non-users of an early contact tracing application helping to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented incidence of this disease warrants investigating theoretically the use of mobile contact tracing applications as a promising approach to curtail its transmission.

A consumption value-based model of the adoption and use of a contact tracing mobile application was built and tested through a cross-sectional survey conducted with 2 samples (of 309 already users and 306 non-users) in the Province of Alberta, Canada.

Utilitarian and social values together with health information seeking and perceived critical mass drive the use of the application while perceived privacy risk is an obstacle to usage for both users and non-users.

Study participants self-assessed their risk category of potential exposure to the COVID-19 virus, and this was a subjective measure including an emotional component.

No major differences in the approaches targeting users and non-users of a mobile contact tracing application to encourage its adoption and use are necessary.

Additional efforts are required to convey to people information on the benefits and current rate of use of such an application and to mitigate privacy risk concerns.

Overall, the study offers theoretical and practical contributions that may help improve the adoption and usage of contact tracing applications addressing the COVID-19 pandemic or other possible public health crises.

The current approach to valuing customers is based on the notion of discounted profit generated by the customers over the lifetime of the relationship, also known as customer lifetime value (CLV). However, in the financial services industry, the customers who contribute the most to the profitability of a firm are also the riskiest customers. If the riskiness of a customer is not considered, firms will overestimate the true value of that customer. This paper proposes a methodology to adjust CLV for different types of risk factors and creates a comprehensive measure of risk-adjusted lifetime value (RALTV).

Using data from a major credit card company, we develop a measure of risk adjusted lifetime value (RALTV) that accounts for diverse types of customer risks. The model is estimated using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA).

Major findings indicate that rewards cardholders and affinity cardholders tend to score higher within the RALTV framework than non-rewards cardholders and non-affinity cardholders, respectively. Among the four different modes of acquisition, the Internet generates the highest RALTV, followed by direct mail.

This paper not only controls for different types of consumer risks in the financial industry and creates a comprehensive risk-adjusted lifetime value (RALTV) model but also shows empirically the value of using RALTV over CLV for predicting future performance of a set of customers. Further, we investigate the impact of a firm’s acquisition and retention strategies on RALTV. The measure of risk-adjusted lifetime value is invaluable for managers in financial services.

The workforce management model conceptualised for the effective management of the construction workforce was subjected to expert scrutiny to determine the suitability and applicability of the identified practices and their attributed variables to the construction industry. In achieving this, a Delphi approach was adopted using experts from construction organisations in South Africa. These experts comprised workforce management personnel and construction professionals in senior management positions. The data were analysed using appropriate statistical tools such as interquartile deviation, Kendell’s coefficient of concordance, and chi square to determine consensus among these experts. After a two-round Delphi, the seven constructs proposed in the conceptualised workforce management model were adjudged to be important and worthy of adoption by construction organisations seeking to improve workforce management in the current fourth industrial revolution era.

As a smart service, location-based advertising (LBA) integrates advanced technologies to deliver personalized messages based on a user’s real-time geographic location and needs. However, research has shown that privacy concerns threaten the diffusion of LBA. This research investigates how privacy-related factors (i.e. LBA type, privacy self-efficacy (PSE) and consumer generation) impact consumers’ value-in-use and their intention to use LBA.

This study developed and examined an LBA value-in-use framework that integrates the role of LBA type, consumers’ PSE and consumer generation into the technology acceptance model (TAM). Data were collected through two experiments in the field with a total of 374 consumers. The proposed relationships were tested using PROCESS modeling.

The results reveal that pull (vs push) LBA causes higher value-in-use in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, leading to greater usage intention. Further, the differences in the mediated relationship between pull- and push-LBA are larger among consumers of low PSE (vs high PSE) and Generation Z (vs other generations). The findings suggest that the consumer value-in-use brought about by LBA diminishes when using push-LBA for low PSE and Generation Z consumers.

This research is the first to integrate the privacy-related interactions of LBA type and consumer characteristics into TAM to develop a TAM-based LBA value-in-use framework. This study contributes to the literature on service value-in-use, smart services and LBA by clarifying the boundary conditions that determine the effectiveness of LBA in enhancing consumers’ value-in-use.

Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between explanatory language, audit fees and audit hours to demonstrate that auditors use explanatory language in audit reports to explain perceived audit risk.

The authors construct the sentiment value, a novel audit risk proxy derived from audit reports, using big data analysis. The relationship between sentiment value and explanatory language is then investigated. The authors present the validity of their new metric by examining the relationship between sentiment value and accounting quality, taking audit fees and hours into account.

The authors first find that reporting explanatory language is positively related to audit fees. More importantly, the authors provide an evidence that explanatory language in audit reports is indicative of increased audit risk as it is negatively correlated with sentiment value. As a positive (negative) sentimental value means that the audit risk is low (high), the results indicate that auditors describe explanatory language in a negative manner to convey the inherent audit risk and receive higher audit fees from the risky clients. Furthermore, the relationship is strengthened when the explanatory language is more severe, such as reporting the multiple numbers of explanatory language or going-concern opinion. Finally, the sentiment value is correlated with accounting quality, as measured by the absolute value of discretionary accruals.

Contrary to previous research, the authors’ findings suggest that auditors disclose audit risks of client firms by including explanatory language in audit reports. In addition, the authors demonstrate that their new metric effectively identifies the audit risk outlined qualitatively in audit report. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that establishes a connection between sentiment analysis and audit-related textual data.

This study uses the resource-based view (RBV) and isomorphism to investigate the influence of data-based resources (i.e. bigness of data, data accessibility (DA) and data completeness (DC)) on big data analytics (BDA) use under the moderation effect of organizational culture (i.e. IT proactive climate). It also analyzes the possible relationship between BDA implementation and value creation.

The empirical validation of the research model was performed through a cross-sectional procedure to gather survey-based responses. The data obtained from a sample of 190 IT executives having relevant educational backgrounds and experienced in the field of big data and business analytics were analyzed using structural equation modeling.

BDA usage can generate significant value if supported by proper levels of DA and DC, which are benefits obtained from the bigness of data (high volume, variety and velocity of data). In addition, data-driven benefits have stronger impacts on BDA usage in firms with higher levels of IT proactive climate.

The present paper has extended the existing literature as it demonstrates facilitating characteristic of data-based resources (i.e. DA and DC) on BDA implementation which can be intensified with an established IT proactive climate in the firm. Additionally, it provides further theoretical and practical insights which are illustrated ahead.