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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Ghulame Rubbaniy, Ali Awais Khalid, Abiot Tessema and Abdelrahman Baqrain

The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for the USA and the UK to help investors and portfolio managers in their informed investment decisions during times of infectious disease spread.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses wavelet coherence approach because it allows to observe lead–lag nonlinear relationship between two time-series variables and captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency. The daily data used in this study about the USA and the UK covers major implied volatility indices, EPU, health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for both the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic over the period from March 3, 2020 to February 12, 2021.

Findings

The results document a strong positive co-movement between implied volatility indices and two proxies of the COVID-19 fear. However, in all the cases, the infectious disease equity market volatility index (IDEMVI), the COVID-19 proxy, is more representative of the stock market and exhibits a stronger positive co-movement with volatility indices than the COVID-19 fear index (C19FI). This study also finds that the UK’s implied volatility index weakly co-moves with the C19FI compared to the USA. The results show that EPU indices of both the USA and the UK exhibit a weak or no correlation with the C19FI. However, this study finds a significant and positive co-movement of EPU indices with IDEMVI over the short horizon and most of the sampling period with the leading effect of IDEMVI. This study’s robustness analysis using partial wavelet coherence provides further strengths to the findings.

Research limitations/implications

The investment decisions and risk management of investors and portfolio managers in financial markets are affected by the new information on volatility and EPU. The findings provide insights to equity investors and portfolio managers to improve their risk management practices by incorporating how health-related risks such as COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to the market volatility and economic risks. The results are beneficial for long-term equity investors, as their investments are affected by contributing factors to the volatility in US and UK’s stock markets.

Originality/value

This study adds following promising values to the existing literature. First, the results complement the existing literature (Rubbaniy et al., 2021c) in documenting that type of COVID-19 proxy matters in explaining the volatility (EPU) relationships in financial markets, where market perceived fear of COVID-19 is appeared to be more pronounced than health-based fear of COVID-19. Second, the use of wavelet coherence approach allows us to observe lead–lag relationship between the selected variables, which captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency and have important insights for the investors and portfolio managers. Finally, this study uses the improved data of COVID-19, stock market volatility and EPU compared to the existing studies (Sharif et al., 2020), which are too early to capture the effects of exponential spread of COVID-19 in the USA and the UK after March 2020.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 February 2022

Zulfiqar Ali Imran and Muhammad Ahad

This study aims to compare the safe-haven properties of different asset markets such as gold, dollar, oil and disaggregated real estate sector (house, plot and residential…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to compare the safe-haven properties of different asset markets such as gold, dollar, oil and disaggregated real estate sector (house, plot and residential) against equity returns in Pakistan over the monthly period of January 2011–December 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use wavelet coherence to encapsulate the overall dependence and correlation of asset classes. Further, the authors also study the potential of diversification at the tail of returns distribution by applying the wavelet value-at-risk (VaR) framework.

Findings

The results of wavelet coherence show that the dependence is weaker (stronger) in the short (long)-term investment horizon. Moreover, the findings of wavelet VaR reveal that the degree of co-movement between gold and equity returns greatly affects the portfolio risk followed by residential property and oil.

Practical implications

The findings are beneficial for the individual investor, fund managers and financial advisors looking for the optimal portfolio combination that hedges the excessive negative movements in equity returns subject to the heterogeneity in the investment horizon.

Originality/value

This is a primary effort to estimate safe-haven investments opportunities at a large spectrum, including disaggregated real estate sector against stock returns in Pakistan. Moreover, this study uses wavelet coherence and wavelet VaR which have an advantage over traditional analysis for diversification.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 March 2021

Sidi Mohammed Chekouri, Abderrahim Chibi and Mohamed Benbouziane

The world is nowadays facing major environmental damage and climate change everywhere. Carbon dioxide emissions are major causes of such change. It is in this respect that the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The world is nowadays facing major environmental damage and climate change everywhere. Carbon dioxide emissions are major causes of such change. It is in this respect that the current study provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between energy consumption (EC), economic growth (EG) and CO2 emissions in Algeria, as it is considered as one of the top CO2 emitters in Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the wavelet approaches and Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to gauge the association between EC, EG and CO2 emissions over the period 1971–2018. Specifically, this study implements the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) to identify the power and variability of each variable at different time scales. The wavelet coherence, phase differences and partial wavelet coherence are also used to assess the co-movement and lead lag relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions over different time scale. Finally, Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test is used to find the causality among variables.

Findings

The wavelet power spectrum results indicate that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions share common strong variance in the medium and long run. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence results suggest that there is a significant co-movement between EG and CO2 emissions, and EG is the leading variable for CO2 emissions and EC. The results also unveil that both EG and EC cause CO2 emissions both in short and long run. The results suggest that Algeria should take suitable measures towards the promotion of renewable energy sources.

Originality/value

The present empirical study filled the literature gap of applying the wavelet approach and frequency domain spectral causality test to examine this relevant issue for Algeria.

Details

World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-5945

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Safwan Mohd Nor, Nur Azura Sanusi and Ronald Ravinesh Kumar

The purpose of this paper is to identify the arbitrage opportunities between US industry-level credit and stock markets with a focus on dynamic lead-lag relationships given that…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify the arbitrage opportunities between US industry-level credit and stock markets with a focus on dynamic lead-lag relationships given that these markets involve heterogeneous agents operating over various time horizons.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use daily data of 11 US industries stock markets and their credit counterparts to model the dynamic dependence and casual nexuses using time-frequency approach, namely, wavelet squared coherence (WTC).

Findings

The WTC estimation results show that credit and stock markets are out of phase (counter cyclical) and stock markets lead their credit counterparts. The coherence between two markets increases during financial crises. The banks (utilities) industry credit and stock markets have relatively high (low) dependence.

Research limitations/implications

The casual nexuses between stock and credit markets have multilateral dimensions. Greater interest in examining the relationship between stock markets and credit default swap (CDS) spreads emerged as an important albeit a complex area of research, and gained prominence especially at the onset and following the global financial crises of 2007-2008 which clearly showed that the positive views of CDSs contribution in creating a resilient and efficient financial sector was nothing further from the truth.

Practical implications

The arbitrage and hedging opportunities between stock and credit markets are industry dependent and vary over investment time horizons. The utilities industry seems attractive for the investment with the objective to exploit arbitrage, but not for hedging.

Originality/value

The paper, for the first time, employs time-frequency approach to assess the arbitrage opportunities between US industry-level credit and stock markets.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 44 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 May 2024

Irina Alexandra Georgescu, Simona Vasilica Oprea and Adela Bâra

In this paper, we aim to provide an extensive analysis to understand how various factors influence electricity prices in competitive markets, focusing on the day-ahead electricity…

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, we aim to provide an extensive analysis to understand how various factors influence electricity prices in competitive markets, focusing on the day-ahead electricity market in Romania.

Design/methodology/approach

Our study period began in January 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, and continued for several months after the onset of the war in Ukraine. During this time, we also consider other challenges like reduced market competitiveness, droughts and water scarcity. Our initial dataset comprises diverse variables: prices of essential energy sources (like gas and oil), Danube River water levels (indicating hydrological conditions), economic indicators (such as inflation and interest rates), total energy consumption and production in Romania and a breakdown of energy generation by source (coal, gas, hydro, oil, nuclear and renewable energy sources) from various data sources. Additionally, we included carbon certificate prices and data on electricity import, export and other related variables. This dataset was collected via application programming interface (API) and web scraping, and then synchronized by date and hour.

Findings

We discover that the competitiveness significantly affected electricity prices in Romania. Furthermore, our study of electricity price trends and their determinants revealed indicators of economic health in 2019 and 2020. However, from 2021 onwards, signs of a potential economic crisis began to emerge, characterized by changes in the normal relationships between prices and quantities, among other factors. Thus, our analysis suggests that electricity prices could serve as a predictive index for economic crises. Overall, the Granger causality findings from 2019 to 2022 offer valuable insights into the factors driving energy market dynamics in Romania, highlighting the importance of economic policies, fuel costs and environmental regulations in shaping these dynamics.

Originality/value

We combine principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dataset’s dimensionality. Following this, we use continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to explore frequency-domain relationships between electricity price and quantity in the day-ahead market (DAM) and the components derived from PCA. Our research also delves into the competitiveness level in the DAM from January 2019 to August 2022, analyzing the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI).

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market…

Abstract

Purpose

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market. Additionally, the study seeks to investigate the potential safe haven, hedge and diversification uses of these digital currencies within the Indian equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the wavelet approach to examine the time-varying volatility of the studied assets and the lead-lag relationship between stocks and cryptocurrencies. The authors execute the entire analysis using daily data from 1st October 2017 to 30th September 2023.

Findings

The result of the study shows that financial distress due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have a negative effect on the Indian equities and cryptocurrency markets, escalating their price volatility. Also, the connectedness between the returns of stock and digital currency exhibits a strong positive relationship during periods of financial distress. Additionally, cryptocurrencies serve as a tool of diversification or hedging in the Indian equities markets during normal financial circumstances, but they do not serve as a diversifier or safe haven during periods of financial turmoil.

Originality/value

This study contributes to understanding the relationship between the Indian equity market and four cryptocurrencies using wavelet techniques in the time and frequency domains, considering both normal and crisis times. This can offer valuable insights into the potential of cryptocurrencies inside the Indian equities markets, mainly with respect to varying financial conditions and investment horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2021

Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Bitcoin market and the conventional asset classes in India

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Bitcoin market and the conventional asset classes in India

Design/methodology/approach

This paper aims to cast light on the dynamic linkages between Bitcoin prices and other conventional asset classes in India by using the wavelet transform frameworks, which can allow us to analyze components of time series without losing the information. To do that, the techniques used with the data set include wavelet-based covariance, correlation, coherence spectrum, continuous power spectrum and Granger causality test.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest that interrelationships between Bitcoin and the key financial asset returns are statistically significant at low, medium and high frequencies. This study also finds the existence of the unidirectional connectedness between Bitcoin the other assets in India.

Practical implications

The outcome of the analysis calls for substantial policy implications for investors, portfolio management in India. This research on the existence of the interconnectedness between Bitcoin and other conventional asset classes in a specific country context, India can, therefore, make a significant contribution to the contemporary debate about the speculative nature of the cryptocurrencies. It casts light on whether Bitcoin provides any diversification and risk management benefits for Indian, as well as global investors.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper investigating the interrelatedness between Bitcoin and key conventional asset classes in India. This research makes methodological advancements by using the wavelet coherence transform. The findings provide empirical bases from which to deal with issues regarding hedging purposes and optimal portfolio allocation for an increasing number of investors in the Indian context. Therefore, the main contribution of this study to related literature in this field is significant.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 July 2024

Biswajit Paul, Raktim Ghosh, Ashish Kumar Sana, Bhaskar Bagchi, Priyajit Kumar Ghosh and Swarup Saha

This study empirically investigates the interdependency of select Asian emerging economies along with the financial stress index during the times of the global financial crisis…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically investigates the interdependency of select Asian emerging economies along with the financial stress index during the times of the global financial crisis, the Euro crisis and the COVID-19 period. Moreover, it inspects the long-memory effects of the different crises during the study period.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the objectives of the study, the authors apply different statistical tools, namely the adjusted correlation coefficient, fractionally integrated generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model and wavelet coherence model, along with descriptive statistics.

Findings

Financial stress is having a prodigious effect on the economic growth of select economies. From the data analysis, it is found that the long-memory effect is noted in the gross domestic product (GDP) for India and Korea only, which implies that the volatility in the GDP series for these two nations demonstrates persistence and dependency on previous values over a lengthy period.

Originality/value

The study is unique of its kind to consider multi-segments within the period of the study to get a clear idea about the effects of the financial stress index on select Asian emerging economies by applying different econometric tools.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2023

Nader Trabelsi

This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses novel approaches that take into account extreme events as well as the nonlinear behavior of time series over various time intervals (i.e. short, medium and long term) and during boom and bust episodes. This study primarily uses the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the quantile multivariate causality test and the partial wavelet coherence method. The data collection period ranges from March 2014 to September 2022.

Findings

US T-bills and gold are the primary factors that can increase financial stability in the GCC region, according to VaRs and CoVaRs. More proof of the predictive value of the oil, gold and wheat markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over US policy and volatility in the oil and US equities markets, is provided by the multivariate causality test. When low extreme quantiles or cross extreme quantiles are taken into account, these results are substantial and sturdy. Lastly, after adjusting for the effect of crude oil prices, this study’s wavelet coherence results indicate diminished long-run connections between the GCC stock market and the chosen global determinants.

Research limitations/implications

Despite the implications of the author’s research for decision makers, there are some limitations mainly related to the selection of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) GCC ex-Saudi Arabia. Considering the economic importance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the region, the author believes that it would be better to include this country in the data to obtain more robust results. In addition, there is evidence in the literature of the existence of heterogeneous responses to global shocks; some markets are more vulnerable than others. This is another limitation of this study, as this study considers the GCC as a bloc rather than each country individually. These limitations could open up further research opportunities.

Originality/value

These findings are important for investors seeking to manage their portfolios under extreme market conditions. They are also important for government policies aimed at mitigating the impact of external shocks.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 December 2021

Ghulame Rubbaniy, Ali Awais Khalid, Muhammad Faisal Rizwan and Shoaib Ali

The purpose of this study is to investigate safe-haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) stocks in global and emerging ESG stock markets during the times of…

2418

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate safe-haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) stocks in global and emerging ESG stock markets during the times of COVID-19 so that portfolio managers and equity market investors could decide to use ESG stocks in their portfolio hedging strategies during times of health and market crisis similar to COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a wavelet coherence framework on four major ESG stock indices from global and emerging stock markets, and two proxies of COVID-19 fear over the period from 5 February 2020 to 18 March 2021.

Findings

The results of the study show a positive co-movement of the global COVID-19 fear index (GFI) with ESG stock indices on the frequency band of 32 to 64 days, which confirms hedging and safe-haven properties of ESG stocks using the health fear proxy of COVID-19. However, the relationship between all indices and GFI is mixed and inconclusive on a frequency of 0–8 days. Further, the findings do not support the safe-haven characteristics of ESG indices using the market fear proxy (IDEMV index) of COVID-19. The robustness analysis using the CBOE VIX as a proxy of market fear supports that ESG indices do not possess safe-haven properties. The results of the study conclude that the safe-haven properties of ESG indices during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is contingent upon the proxy of COVID-19 fear.

Practical implications

The findings have important implications for the equity investors and assetty managers to improve their portfolio performance by including ESG stocks in their portfolio choice during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar health crisis. However, their investment decisions could be affected by the choice of COVID-19 proxy.

Originality/value

The authors believe in the originality of the paper due to following reasons. First, to the best of the knowledge, this is the first study investigating the safe-haven properties of ESG stocks. Second, the authors use both health fear (GFI) and market fear (IDEMV index) proxies of COVID-19 to compare whether safe-haven properties are characterized by health fear or market fear due to COVID-19. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherency framework, which not only takes both time and frequency dimensions of the data into account but also remains unaffected by data stationarity and size issues.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 39 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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