Since the 1970s, many global political economists have been seeing the US as a declining hegemon. After four decades into this hegemonic decline, performance of economies…
Since the 1970s, many global political economists have been seeing the US as a declining hegemon. After four decades into this hegemonic decline, performance of economies having been regarded as candidates for new hegemons such as Germany/Europe and Japan fell far short of these expectations, while US share of the global economy and its military supremacy remained stable. This staying power of the US stems from the “dollar standard,” under which the US dollar is the dominant foreign reserve currency and international transaction medium in the world economy. The dollar standard originated in the Cold War era when all major capitalist powers relied on the US for military protection. It persisted after the end of Cold War, thanks to the continuous mutual reinforcement of the dollar standard and the global domination of the US military. The recent rise of China, which is the first major capitalist power outside the orbit of US military protection, poses a serious dilemma to the US. On the one hand, China’s export-oriented development drives China to purchase US Treasuries on a massive scale, hence lending support to the short-term viability of the dollar. On the other hand, US’s skyrocketing current account deficit, much attributable to China, precipitates a crisis of confidence over the dollar’s long-term prospects. China is likewise caught in a dilemma between sustaining its export-driven growth and shifting to a domestic-consumption-driven economy. The development of the US–China currency conflict, together with the transformation of the Chinese developmental model, will be the most important determinant shaping the future of the dollar standard and US global power in the years to come.
Culture is a central concept broadly studied in social anthropology and sociology. It has been gaining increasing attention in economics, appearing in research on labor…
Culture is a central concept broadly studied in social anthropology and sociology. It has been gaining increasing attention in economics, appearing in research on labor market discrimination, identity, gender, and social preferences. Most experimental economics research on culture studies cross-national or cross-ethnic differences in economic behavior. In contrast, we explain laboratory behavior using two cultural dimensions adopted from a prominent general cultural framework in contemporary social anthropology: group commitment and grid control. Groupness measures the extent to which individual identity is incorporated into group or collective identity; gridness measures the extent to which social and political prescriptions intrinsically influence individual behavior. Grid-group characteristics are measured for each individual using selected items from the World Values Survey. We hypothesize that these attributes allow us to systematically predict behavior in a way that discriminates among multiple forms of social preferences using a simple, parsimonious deductive model. The theoretical predictions are further tested in the economics laboratory by applying them to the dictator, ultimatum, and trust games. We find that these predictions are confirmed overall for most experimental games, although the strength of empirical support varies across games. We conclude that grid-group cultural theory is a viable predictor of people’s economic behavior, then discuss potential limitations of the current approach and ways to improve it.
The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual…
The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual realities and the future, potential, best possible conditions of general stable equilibrium which both pure and practical reason, exhaustive in the Kantian sense, show as being within the realm of potential realities beyond any doubt. The first classical revolution in economic thinking, included in factor “P” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of a model of ideal conditions of stable equilibrium but neglected the full consideration of the existing, actual conditions. That is the main reason why, in the end, it failed. The second modern revolution, included in factor “A” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of the existing, actual conditions, usually in disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium (in case of stagnation) and neglected the sense of right direction expressed in factor “P” or the realization of general, stable equilibrium. That is the main reason why the modern revolution failed in the past and is failing in front of our eyes in the present. The equation of unified knowledge, perceived as a sui generis synthesis between classical and modern thinking has been applied rigorously and systematically in writing the enclosed American‐British economic, monetary, financial and social stabilization plans. In the final analysis, a new economic philosophy, based on a synthesis between classical and modern thinking, called here the new economics of unified knowledge, is applied to solve the malaise of the twentieth century which resulted from a confusion between thinking in terms of stable equilibrium on the one hand and disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium on the other.
The central hypothesis to be tested is the relevance of gold in the determination of the value of the US dollar as an international reserve currency after 1971. In the…
The central hypothesis to be tested is the relevance of gold in the determination of the value of the US dollar as an international reserve currency after 1971. In the first section, the market value of the US dollar is analysed by looking at new forms of value (financial derivative products), the dollar as a safe haven, the choice of a standard of value and the role of special drawing rights in reforming the international monetary system. Based on dimensional analysis, the second section analyses the definition and meaning of a numéraire for international currency and the justification for a variable standard of value based on a commodity (gold). Then follows the theoretical foundation for the empirical and econometric analysis used later. The third section is devoted to the specification of an econometric model and a graphical analysis of the data. It is clear that an inverse relation exists between the value of the US dollar and the price of gold. The fourth section shows the estimations of the different specifications of the model including linear regression and cointegration analysis. The most important econometric result is that the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of a significant link between the price of gold and the value of the US dollar. There is also a positive relationship between gold price and inflation. An inverse statistically significant relation between gold price and monetary policy is shown by applying a dynamic model of cointegration with lags.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of US dollar exchange rate risk on the value of Canadian non‐financial firms.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of US dollar exchange rate risk on the value of Canadian non‐financial firms.
The sample, from the Compustat database, includes all non‐financial Canadian firms with sales over $100 million. The study segregates firms into hedging and non‐hedging groups and applies statistical techniques to test if hedging enhances value.
The results demonstrate that Canadian firms that have higher levels of US$ sales tend to use derivatives more frequently through higher levels of US$ exposure. Firms that have both US sales and assets appear less likely to use hedging. Firms with an American subsidiary and use financial instruments to hedge have higher values. When operational hedging is used with financial hedging, it is a value enhancing activity increasing their market‐to‐book by 14 per cent and market value‐to‐sales by 40 per cent. Incremental impact of these two hedging strategies is to enhance value by 7 per cent.
The sample from Compustat captures large capitalization Canadian firms but ignores about 75 per cent of Canadian firms. There is a bias towards larger firms. Some hedging items are not disclosed on financial statements. A survey would enhance and complement these results.
The paper finds that it is important for Canadian firms that have exports denominated in US dollars to hedge their exposure. The full value of hedging is reaped by using both operational and financial hedges.
This study is the first that examines US dollar risk management by Canadian firms.
In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine…
In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return data to determine the relation between the dollar’s value and stock prices as it relates to monetary policy.
The authors examine US stock returns over a 40-year period, which is classified according to monetary policy and dollar trend. To better understand the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the authors estimate a model of stock returns using the three Fama-French factors and a momentum factor. Then the authors explore the underlying economic fundamentals that drive the sharp difference in annual returns between periods when the dollar is in an uptrend trend with loose monetary policy and periods when the dollar is in a downtrend with tight monetary policy.
Over the last 40 years, US stock returns were 2.5 times higher when the dollar was trending up vs down. The factor model of returns shows that equity returns are positively associated with periods when the dollar appreciated. Returns were particularly high when the dollar was in an uptrend during accommodative monetary policy. During these periods, stocks in the consumer goods and services industries provided relatively high returns. This occurred with strong economic growth due to consumer spending. Stocks exhibited the lowest returns when the dollar was depreciating and the Federal Reserve was tightening.
The key contribution of the research is that currency trends should be analyzed in the light of monetary policy. During periods of accommodative monetary policy and dollar appreciation, the US stock market provided average returns of 18.7 percent compared to −3.29 percent during a period of restrictive monetary policy and dollar depreciation. This result is driven by stronger economic growth, which is composed of consumer spending that more than offsets the dollar’s impact on net exports.
We study up to 27 years of weekly data on nine currencies to examine the importance of the Japanese yen in exchange rate determination in North and Southeast Asia. We…
We study up to 27 years of weekly data on nine currencies to examine the importance of the Japanese yen in exchange rate determination in North and Southeast Asia. We combine a time-varying methodology alongside a focus on long-run equilibrium. Our findings suggest that the Japanese yen had virtually no influence on Asian exchange rates in the 10-year period prior to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Since the crisis, the yen and the German mark in particular have exerted a significant influence over the region's exchange rates except for the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar and the Malaysian ringgit, which continue to be closely related to the US dollar.
The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two…
The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two years within narrow bands around an appreciating trend. That is, the RMB behaved as if it were managed to strengthen gradually against trading partners’ currencies. This experiment was interrupted in mid-2008 and the RMB stabilized against a strong dollar amidst the global financial crisis. If Chinese policy were to return to effective currency stability and other East Asian countries were to pursue similar policies, regional currency stability would be enhanced. That would create more favorable conditions for an evolution towards monetary cooperation.
We investigate fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rates (NEERs) of East Asian currencies and the Asian monetary unit (AMU), which is computed as a weighted…
We investigate fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rates (NEERs) of East Asian currencies and the Asian monetary unit (AMU), which is computed as a weighted average of East Asian currencies during the global financial crisis. We find that NEERs were more stable for countries that continued to follow a currency basket system during the global financial crisis.
Furthermore, we investigate the relationships among NEERs, AMU, and AMU deviation indicators, which indicate the extent of the deviation in the exchange rate of each East Asian currency from a benchmark rate given in terms of the AMU. By comparing NEERs with a combination of AMU and AMU deviation indicators, we find that there is a strong relationship between them, both before and after the global financial crisis. These results indicate that a coordinated exchange rate policy aimed at stabilizing the AMU deviation indicators will be effective in stabilizing the NEERs of East Asian currencies. In this respect, the AMU deviation indicators, which indicate intraregional exchange rates among East Asian currencies, play a crucial role.
Because NEER trade weights are widely similar among East Asian currencies, a policy aimed at stabilizing a home currency against its NEER may lead to a coordinated exchange rate policy without a common consensus among East Asian countries. In the future, however, coordinated monetary policies should be considered along with coordinated exchange rate policies.
- Asian monetary unit (AMU)
- AMU deviation indicator
- de facto US dollar peg system
- currency basket system
- nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)
- coordinated exchange rate policy
- the Chiang Mai Initiative
- trade weight
- GDP measured at PPP
- European currency unit (ECU)
- implicit basket weights
- currency regime
- European monetary system (EMS)
Financial globalization and global imbalances are two facets of the same phenomenon, which has resulted in the worst global economic and financial crisis since the Great…
Financial globalization and global imbalances are two facets of the same phenomenon, which has resulted in the worst global economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the complex interaction of several mutually reinforcing trends and factors – the global monetary easing of 2001‐2004, financial innovation, regulatory failure, in particular in the USA and the UK, US fiscal indiscipline and Chinese currency manipulation – that contributed to the global financial crisis. The key to a return to global financial buoyancy will be the coordinated resolution of the global imbalances over the medium term, as well as the establishment of a strong global financial regulatory framework focusing on both macro‐ and micro‐financial risks.
In the paper, the author analyzes the role of the interaction of financial innovation, regulatory and global imbalances in the creation of the real estate bubble, shadow banking and the eventual collpase of what the author dubbed the Banking 2.0 structure (1980s).
The main findings are that these factors contributed to a flattening of the yield curve in 2004‐2006 despite the tightening of monetary policy and growing US fiscal deficits. Moreover, while the US dollar is on a long‐term weakening trend, the lack of alternatives means that it will maintain its role as a reserve currency.
This paper focuses on the role of the global imbalances in triggering the financial crisis and shaping the role of the dollar in the post‐crisis world.