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1 – 10 of 388Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.
Findings
Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.
Originality/value
There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.
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In this study, the impact of access to electricity on poverty reduction for Botswana is examined using the annual data from 1990 to 2021. The study was motivated by the need to…
Abstract
Purpose
In this study, the impact of access to electricity on poverty reduction for Botswana is examined using the annual data from 1990 to 2021. The study was motivated by the need to establish if access to electricity could be a panacea on poverty reduction in Botswana. Given that the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals deadline is fast approaching, and Botswana being one of the signatories, is expected to end poverty in all its forms – Goal 1. Establishing the role that electrification plays in poverty alleviation, helps in refocusing Botswana’s poverty alleviation strategies on factors that have high impact on poverty. The main objective of this study, therefore, is to investigate the relationship between poverty alleviation and access to electricity in Botswana.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the nature of the relations. Two poverty proxies were used in this study namely, household consumption expenditure and life expectancy.
Findings
The study found access to electricity to reduce poverty in the long run and in the short run, regardless of the poverty measure used. Thus, access to electricity plays an important role in poverty alleviation and Botswana is recommended to continue with the rural and urban electrification initiatives.
Originality/value
The study explores the impact of access to electricity on poverty reduction in Botswana, a departure from the current studies that examined the same relationship using energy consumption in general. This is on the back of increasing dependence of economic activities on electricity as a major source of energy.
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Amogelang Marope and Andrew Phiri
The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of electricity power outages on the local housing market in South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of electricity power outages on the local housing market in South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) models on annual time series data, for the period 1971–2014. The interest rate, real income and inflation were used as control variables to enable a multivariate framework.
Findings
The results from the ARDL model show that real income is the only factor influencing housing price over the long run, whereas other variables only have short-run effects. The estimates from the QARDL further reveal hidden cointegration relationship over the long run with higher quantile levels of distribution and transmission losses raising the residential price growth.
Research limitations/implications
Overall, the findings of this study imply that the South African housing market is more vulnerable to property devaluation caused by power outages over the short run and yet remains resilient to loadshedding over the long run. Other macro-economic factors, such as real income and inflation, are more influential factors towards long-run developments in the residential market.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the empirical relationship between power outages and housing price growth.
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Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan and Niaz Ali
This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US.
Design/methodology/approach
Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis.
Findings
The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA.
Originality/value
This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.
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Chin Tiong Cheng and Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling
Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely…
Abstract
Purpose
Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence index (CF), existing stocks (ES), incoming supply (IS) and completed project (CP) on serviced apartment price changes.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve more accurate, quality price changes, a serviced apartment price index (SAPI) was constructed through a self-developed hedonic price index model. This study has collected 1,567 transaction data in Kuala Lumpur, covering 2009Q1–2018Q4 for price index construction and data were analysed using the vector autoregressive model, the vector error correction model and the fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) (FMOLS).
Findings
Results of the regression model show that only GDP, ES and IS were significantly associated with SAPI, with an R2 of 0.7, where both ES and IS have inverse relationships with SAPI. More precisely, it is predicted that the price of serviced apartments will be reduced by 0.56% and 0.21% for every 1% increase in ES and IS, respectively.
Practical implications
Therefore, government monitoring of serviced apartments’ future supply is crucial by enforcing land use-planning regulations via stricter development approval of serviced apartments to safeguard and achieve more stable property prices.
Originality/value
By adopting an innovative approach to estimating the response of price change to supply and demand in a situation where there is no price indicator for serviced apartments, the study addresses the knowledge gap, especially in terms of understanding what are the key determinants of, and to what extent they influence, the SAPI.
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Ketki Kaushik and Shruti Shastri
This study aims to assess the nexus among oil price (OP), renewable energy consumption (REC) and trade balance (TB) for India using annual time series data for the time period…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to assess the nexus among oil price (OP), renewable energy consumption (REC) and trade balance (TB) for India using annual time series data for the time period 1985–2019. In particular, the authors examine whether REC improves India's TB in the context of high oil import dependence.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach that has the advantage of yielding estimates of long-run and short-run parameters simultaneously. Moreover, the small sample properties of this approach are superior to other multivariate cointegration techniques. Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are also applied to test the robustness of the results. The causality among the series is investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model.
Findings
The findings based on ARDL bounds testing approach indicate that OPs exert a negative impact on TB of India in both long run and short run, whereas REC has a favorable impact on the TB. In particular, 1% increase in OPs decreases TBs by 0.003% and a 1% increase in REC improves TB by 0.011%. The results of FMOLS and DOLS corroborate the findings from ARDL estimates. The results of block exogeneity test suggest unidirectional causation from OPs to TB; OPs to REC and REC to TB.
Practical implications
The study underscore the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in the context of Indian economy. Our results suggest that the policymakers must pay attention to the hindrances in augmentation of renewable energy usage and try to capitalize on the resulting gains for the TB.
Social implications
Climate change is a major challenge for developing countries like India. Renewable energy sector is considered an important instrument toward attaining the twin objectives of environmental sustainability and employment generation. This study underscores another role of REC as a tool to achieve a sustainable trade position, which may help India save her valuable forex reserves for broader objectives of economic development.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that probes the dynamic nexus among OPs, REC and TB in Indian context. From a policy standpoint, the study underscores the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in context of India. From a theoretical perspective, the study extends the literature on the determinants of TB by identifying the role of REC in shaping TB.
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Nikhil Kumar Kanodia, Dipti Ranjan Mohapatra and Pratap Ranjan Jena
Economic literature highlights both positive and negative impact of FDI on economic growth. The purpose of this study is to confirm the relationship between various economic…
Abstract
Purpose
Economic literature highlights both positive and negative impact of FDI on economic growth. The purpose of this study is to confirm the relationship between various economic factors and FDI equity inflows and find out deviations, if any. This is investigated using standard time-series econometric models. The long and short run relationship is inquired with respect to market size, inflation rate, level of infrastructure, domestic investment and openness to trade. The choice of variables for Indian economy is purely based on empirical observations obtained from scientific literature review.
Design/methodology/approach
The study involves application of autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship. The long run co-integration between FDI and economic growth is tested by Pesaran ARDL model. The stationarity of data is tested by augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillip–Perron unit root test. Error correction model is applied to study the short run relationship using Johansen’s vector error correction model method besides other tests.
Findings
The results show that the domestic investment, inflation rate, level of infrastructure and trade openness influence inward FDI flows. These factors have both long and short-term relationship with FDI inflows. However, market size is insignificant in influencing the foreign investments inflows. There lies an inverse relation between FDI and inflation rate.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is original. The methodology and interpretation of results are distinct and different from other similar studies.
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This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.
Findings
The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.
Originality/value
This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.
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Le Thanh Tung and Le Nguyen Hoang
Emerging economies have been highlighted as an important growth source of the global economy. However, this group of countries has not received enough academic attention yet…
Abstract
Purpose
Emerging economies have been highlighted as an important growth source of the global economy. However, this group of countries has not received enough academic attention yet. Therefore, this study aims to identify the impact of research and development (R&D) expenditure on economic growth in emerging economies.
Design/methodology/approach
The theoretical framework of the production function is applied to quantitatively analyse the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth with a sample of 29 emerging economies in the period between 1996 and 2019.
Findings
The panel cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run cointegration relationships between economic growth and independent variables in these emerging economies. Besides, the estimated results show that the national R&D expenditure has positive effects on economic growth from both direct and interaction dimensions. This evidence has filled the empirical research gap in the R&D-growth nexus in the case of emerging economies. Finally, while gross capital and education have positive impacts on growth, corruption has a harmful effect on economic growth in these countries.
Practical implications
The results highlight that policymakers should enhance R&D expenditure and R&D activities as the key national development strategy. The investment in R&D not only helps emerging economies avoid the middle-income trap but also pushes these countries to successfully join the group of developed countries.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the first to examine the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth with a homogeneous sample of emerging economies. The results are obviously helpful for policymakers to use R&D as the key development strategy for supporting economic growth in emerging economies in the future.
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Samson Edo and Osaro Oigiangbe
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to Sub-Saharan African countries. It also deals with the policy issues associated with the economic effects.
Design/methodology/approach
The techniques of dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares are used in this investigation, covering the period 1990–2022. A panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African countries is used in the study.
Findings
The estimation results reveal that external debt vulnerability impacted negatively on economic growth, thus validating the concerns raised about the debt problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that domestic credit and openness of economy played a passive role and were therefore unable to cushion the adverse effect of debt vulnerability. Capital stock, however, stands out as the only variable that played a significant positive role in facilitating economic growth. The results are considered to be highly reliable for short-term forecast of economic growth and formulation of relevant policies.
Originality/value
Over the years, economic analysts and stakeholders have expressed concern about the inadequate ratio of foreign reserves to external debt in developing countries. The effect of this external debt vulnerability on the economy of these countries has yet to be given sufficient attention by researchers. In view of this perceived void, this current study is carried out to determine the economic and policy consequences of the problem.
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