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Article
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Ana Sofia Lopes, Ana Sargento and Pedro Carreira

This paper aims to address the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry by examining whether some specific…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to address the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry by examining whether some specific characteristics make people more vulnerable or more immune to unemployment.

Design/methodology/approach

Using an extensive micro-level data set of personal and job-related attributes containing all unemployed individuals in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry, a logit model with 56,142 observations is estimated to assess how each characteristic contributed to the unemployment odds during the COVID-19 crisis (until the end-July 2020), relatively to the pre-COVID period.

Findings

The most vulnerable workers to COVID-19 unemployment seem to be older, less educated, less qualified, women and residents in regions with a higher concentration of people and tourism activity. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis is generating a new type of unemployment by also affecting those who were never unemployed before, with more stable jobs and more motivated at work, while reducing voluntary disruptions.

Practical implications

Public effort should be made not only to increase workforce education but especially to reinforce job-specific skills. The COVID-19 crisis has broken traditional protective measures against unemployment and separated workers from their desired occupations, which justifies new and exceptional job preservation measures. Policy recommendations are given aiming at strengthening worker resilience and industry competitiveness in the most affected sub-sectors and regions.

Originality/value

This study extends the current understanding of worker vulnerability to economic downturns. Herein, this paper used a three-level approach (combining socio-demographic, work-related and regional factors), capturing the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis and focussing on the tourism and hospitality industry (the hardest-hit sector worldwide).

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2002

Bernhard A. Weber

There is strong empirical evidence that unemployment rates decrease as the educational level rises. The present article attempts to take explicit account of this when…

Abstract

There is strong empirical evidence that unemployment rates decrease as the educational level rises. The present article attempts to take explicit account of this when estimating educational rates of return. Three models that differ with respect to their degree of simplicity and data requirements are developed herein and applied to the empirical data. The estimates for 14 European countries suggest that standard estimates that do not account for unemployment are substantially downward biased. Differences in unemployment probabilities at different educational levels, and youth unemployment, both appear to be important for a better understanding of the incentive structure behind educational decisions.

Details

Education + Training, vol. 44 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0040-0912

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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2012

Firouz Fallahi, Hamed Pourtaghi and Gabriel Rodríguez

The paper aims to study the effect of the unemployment rate and its volatility on crime in the USA. It proposes that not only the unemployment rate, but also its…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to study the effect of the unemployment rate and its volatility on crime in the USA. It proposes that not only the unemployment rate, but also its volatility affect the crime.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the volatility of the unemployment rate is calculated using ARCH models. Next, using the results from the first stage the ARDL approach to cointegration is used to examine the link between the unemployment rate and its volatility on the crime.

Findings

The cointegrated or long‐run relationships are found only for burglary and motor‐vehicle theft. The results indicate that the unemployment rate has a significant effect on burglary and motor‐vehicle theft only in the short run and the unemployment volatility has a negative effect on motor‐vehicle theft regardless of time span. However, it has a positive effect on burglary in the short run and no effect in the long run.

Originality/value

The effect of unemployment rate on crime is documented in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that emphasizes the importance of unemployment rate volatility on the crime.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 39 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 25 January 2011

Jaakko Pehkonen, Hector Sala and Pablo F. Salvador

This paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countries during their recent labour market booms and slumps.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countries during their recent labour market booms and slumps.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the empirical models of Karanassou et al., we conduct dynamic simulation exercises and explore the determinants of unemployment.

Findings

The analysis yields two main findings. First, the capital stock was the most important determinant of the unemployment trajectory in both countries. This result appears in all periods considered: in the slump of the early 1990s and the boom of the late 1990s, as well as in the stabilisation period of the early 2000s. Second, the role of the foreign sector on the unemployment trajectory was significant in Finland, its quantitative impact being one‐third of the effect for the capital stock in the first and third periods, and half of the latter in the second period.

Originality/value

The results illustrate the importance of non‐standard labour market variables in examining unemployment trajectories. The findings call for a wider than usual perspective in trying to solve the unemployment problem.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 1996

Satya Paul

Estimates a three‐equation model to test various economic hypotheses regarding the relationship between unemployment rate and defence spending in 18 OECD countries during…

Abstract

Estimates a three‐equation model to test various economic hypotheses regarding the relationship between unemployment rate and defence spending in 18 OECD countries during the period 1962‐1988. Reveals that the relationship which exists between unemployment rate and defence spending is not uniform across countries. Defence spending has a favourable impact on unemployment rate in Germany and Australia, whereas in Denmark it worsens the employment situation. In Australia, Germany and Belgium, non‐defence spending and the unemployment rate are causally independent. Defence spending appears to act as a stablization tool in response to changes in the unemployment rate only in the UK. No significant causal relationship between unemployment rate and either type of spending is revealed in Japan, The Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Austria, New Zealand, Sweden, Canada and the USA. Observes a few cases of bi‐directional causality between unemployment rate and defence/non‐defence spending. Gives possible explanations for the observed cross‐country variability in causal relation.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 30 April 2021

Oxana Krutova, Pertti Koistinen, Tuuli Turja, Harri Melin and Tuomo Särkikoski

This paper aims to examine how input from the digital restructuring of the workplace and productivity affects the risk of job loss and unemployment.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine how input from the digital restructuring of the workplace and productivity affects the risk of job loss and unemployment.

Design/methodology/approach

Relying on the concepts of technological unemployment and the productivity paradox as well as the theory of skills-biased technological change, the analysis incorporated micro-level individual determinants of job loss, macro-level economic determinants of input and the contribution from traditional (machinery and equipment) vs innovative (ICT) factors of production. The model has been also controlled for “traditional” indicators of “outsiderness” in the labour market. The Quality of Work Life Survey, which is a broad-based national interview survey produced by Statistics Finland, for 2018, the latest year available (N = 4,110) has been used in the analysis. Binomial logistic regression has been applied in order to estimate the effects of individual- and macro-level factors on the risk of job loss.

Findings

The results support arguments for the divergence between effects from labour- vs total-factor productivity on the risks of job loss, as well as the divergence between effects for temporary (layoff) vs permanent job loss (dismissal or unemployment). While the contribution from “traditional” factors of production to labour productivity potentially decreases the risk of permanent job loss, input from “innovative” factors of production on total-factor productivity potentially causes adverse effects (e.g. growing risks of permanent job loss).

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the theoretical discussion about technological unemployment and productivity by means of including two different concepts into a single econometric model, thus enabling examination of the research problem in an innovative way.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

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Book part
Publication date: 29 November 2019

Magnus Andersson, Peter G. Håkansson and Inge Thorsen

This chapter examines observed regional inequalities and centralization tendencies in Norway. Small, rural, municipalities experienced a favourable population development…

Abstract

This chapter examines observed regional inequalities and centralization tendencies in Norway. Small, rural, municipalities experienced a favourable population development from 1970 to the mid-1980s. After this, the percentage population growth has been strongest in the largest municipalities/cities, and this tendency has accelerated during the last 10–15 years. Data post-1970 strongly support the reasonable hypothesis that population growth is positively related to centrality. The major source of changes lies within the labour market regions, whereas the changes between the regions are modest. Jobs have not become more centralized than households over the period.

A conceptual model is developed, offering a useful taxonomy of municipalities in three dimensions: the unemployment rate, the employment growth, and housing prices. This provides a classification that contributes to clarify the changes in the urban-rural divide. The discussion demonstrates that distinguishing between different categories is important, since different explanations of centralization and regional disparities call for different menus of policy instruments.

We study the relationship between population growth, unemployment rates, and employment growth in Norwegian municipalities, to distinguish between disequilibrium and equilibrium explanations of the situation in regional labour markets. At a national level our results indicate that neoclassical adjustments dominate weakly over amenity-based mechanisms. However, results from many regions support the hypothesis that amenity-based adjustments are dominant for municipalities within a labour market region. One possible explanation is that the diversity in job opportunities is considered as an amenity. A thicker labour market is better fit to meet the demand of workers with specific qualifications.

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Abstract

Details

Explaining Unemployment: Econometric Models for the Netherlands
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-847-6

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Book part
Publication date: 1 November 2011

Pietro F. Peretto

I present a model where firms and workers set wages above the market-clearing level. Unemployment is thus generated by their exercise of market power. Because both the…

Abstract

I present a model where firms and workers set wages above the market-clearing level. Unemployment is thus generated by their exercise of market power. Because both the labor and product markets are imperfectly competitive, market power in the labor market interacts with market power in the product market. This interaction sheds new light on the effects of policy interventions on unemployment and growth. For example, labor market reforms that reduce labor costs reduce unemployment and boost growth because they expand the scale of the economy and generate more competition in the product market.

Details

Economic Growth and Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-397-2

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Panel Data and Structural Labour Market Models
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-319-0

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