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Article
Publication date: 8 March 2021

Tugrul Daim, Marina Dabic and Edwin Garces

Abstract

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

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Article
Publication date: 30 May 2008

Tugrul Daim and Stephen Jordan

This paper aims to forecast technological change for laptop batteries. The most promising technology to replace laptop batteries emerging today is micro fuel cells.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to forecast technological change for laptop batteries. The most promising technology to replace laptop batteries emerging today is micro fuel cells.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use several sources of technical data like the Department of Energy Sandia National Laboratory Technical Library for exploring this topic further. Patents were searched for fuel cell and lithium battery development and to perform a technology cycle time analysis, identify countries filing patents, and discover what areas they are working on development.

Findings

Based on the analysis, fuel cells promise to be the technology that will replace laptop lithium batteries.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to draw a framework bringing different scientific data sources together for technology forecasting.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 11 April 2016

Yonghee Cho and Tugrul Daim

Due to rapid technological evolution driven by display manufacturers, the television (TV) market of flat panel displays has been fast growing with the advancement of…

Abstract

Purpose

Due to rapid technological evolution driven by display manufacturers, the television (TV) market of flat panel displays has been fast growing with the advancement of digital technologies in broadcasting service. Recently, organic light-emitting diode (OLED) successfully penetrated into the large-size TV market, catching up with light-emitting diode (LED)-liquid-crystal display (LCD). This paper aims to investigate the market penetration of OLED technologies by determining their technology adoption rates based on a diffusion model.

Design/methodology/approach

Through the rapid evolution of information and communication technology, as well as a flood of data from diverse sources such as research awards, journals, patents, business press, newspaper and Internet social media, data mining, text mining, tech mining and database tomography have become practical techniques for assisting the forecaster to identify early signs of technological change. The information extracted from a variety of sources can be used in a technology diffusion model, such as Fisher-Pry where emerging technologies supplant older ones. This paper uses a comparison-based prediction method to forecast the adoption and diffusion of next-generation OLED technologies by mining journal and patent databases.

Findings

In recent years, there has been a drastic reduction of patents related to LCD technologies, which suggests that next-generation OLED technology is penetrating the TV market. A strong industry adoption for OLED has been found. A high level of maturity is expected by 2026.

Research limitations/implications

For OLED technologies that are closely tied to industrial applications such as electronic display devices, it may be better to use more industry-oriented data mining, such as patents, market data, trade shows, number of companies or startups, etc. The Fisher-Pry model does not address the level of sales for each technology. Therefore, the comparison between the Bass model and the Fisher-Pry model would be useful to investigate the market trends of OLED TVs further. Another step for forecasting could include using industry experts and a Delphi model for forecasting (and further validation).

Originality/value

Fisher-Pry growth curves for journal publications and patents follow the expected sequence. Specially, journal publications and patents growth curves are close for OLED technologies, indicating a strong industry adoption.

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Article
Publication date: 16 October 2020

Deemah Alassaf, Marina Dabić, Dara Shifrer and Tugrul Daim

The purpose of this paper is to fill a significant research gap in academic literature pertaining to open innovation (OI). To do so, this paper empirically tests the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to fill a significant research gap in academic literature pertaining to open innovation (OI). To do so, this paper empirically tests the impact of organizational culture, employees’ knowledge, attitudes and rewards as antecedents and mediators of OI adoption in organizations, facilitating a more thorough understanding by using an empirical multi-level approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper analyzes the results of the “Identification of Industrial Needs for Open Innovation Education in Europe” survey through a quantitative analysis using logistic regression models. This survey includes 528 employees working in 28 different industrial sectors in 37 countries, most of which are in Europe.

Findings

The results suggest a positive impact of organizational characteristics on the adoption of OI (i.e. including the adoption of outside-in and inside-out OI activities in participating organizations), showing that the openness of an organization’s culture increases its likelihood of adopting an OI paradigm. More importantly, the results highlight the positive mediating effect of employees’ knowledge and rewards on this relationship.

Research limitations/implications

The data set that was the basis of this paper was generated in European countries, the results of the analysis are limited and appropriate for this region and may vary when applied to other regions of the world.

Practical implications

The proposed multi-level approach offers new insight into organizational knowledge. It enables the improvement of OI and knowledge management practices in organizations by assisting practitioners and academics in recognizing the relationship between organizational culture; employees’ knowledge, attitudes and rewards; and the adoption of the OI paradigm.

Social implications

This paper offers a possible explanation on why open-border cultures are more likely to have a successful OI adoption, by relating it to factors that advance in the presence of an open-border culture, such as active participation of OI relative departments in knowledge sourcing and knowledge exchange, and rewarding employees for OI activities.

Originality/value

This paper presents a new framework which links organizational culture to OI, moving on from merely examining culture in terms of its positive or negative impact on OI adoption. It contributes to research on the OI paradigm and knowledge management by highlighting the significance of antecedents and mediators from a multi-level perspective using multiple units of analysis. Most previous studies focus on a single unit of analysis.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 24 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Content available

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Content available
Article
Publication date: 30 August 2011

Tugrul U. Daim

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Content available

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2012

Tugrul Daim, Georgina Harell and Liliya Hogaboam

This paper aims to present a forecast for renewable energy production in the USA. Growth curves are used to conduct the forecasts.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present a forecast for renewable energy production in the USA. Growth curves are used to conduct the forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is based upon a literature review, supplemented by collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying the Pearl growth curve.

Findings

The authors' results show that biomass energy production is growing the fastest followed by geothermal and wind. Additionally, the forecast for solar energy production shows little to no growth over the next two decades.

Research limitations/implications

If the US government hopes to achieve its goals in renewable energy, considerable funding and incentives will have to be put forth to accelerate the growth of renewable energy. Since the biomass technology is already growing nicely it makes sense to put the additional resources behind the other three technologies to close the 10.3 percent gap being forecasted. The government also needs to put more funding into dual renewable plants such as wind or solar combines with pumped hydro, this will ensure environmental and reliability are both maintained. Finally, for renewable energies to be competitive in the long term, considerable research needs to go into driving down the cost so there is not a need for subsidies.

Originality/value

This study provides value in providing a forecast for expected future growth for renewable energy sources.

Details

Foresight, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 16 February 2010

Tugrul Daim

Abstract

Details

Journal of Technology Management in China, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8779

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