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Article
Publication date: 16 February 2021

David Blake and John Pickles

The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.

Design/methodology/approach

In a series of thought investments, $1 invested in an investment fund is mentally projected forward in time and then discounted back to the present – with no objective time passing. The thought investments feature symmetric valuation (in which discount rates exactly match projection rates) and asymmetric valuation (in which discount rates and projection rates happen to differ). They show how asymmetric valuation can result in differences between the current personal value and market value of an investment and, by way of real-world illustration, between a closed-end investment fund's net asset value and its market value. The authors explore possible reasons for asymmetric valuation.

Findings

Thought investments illustrating mental time travel can be used to help understand both financial investment valuation generally and, more specifically, established explanations of the closed-end investment fund puzzle. The authors show how different expectations, different perceptions of time and risk and different risk and time preferences might help determine value.

Originality/value

There are vast literatures on prospection, discounting and future-orientated or intertemporal decision-making. The authors’ innovation is to illustrate how these mental activities might combine to facilitate financial investment valuation. In particular, the authors show that a low personal discount rate could be a consequence of a shortened perception of future time and vice versa.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1998

Owen Connellan and Howard James

This work shows that it is possible to link various economic and property attributes to the value of a commercial property over time in a particular market, and arrive at a…

1159

Abstract

This work shows that it is possible to link various economic and property attributes to the value of a commercial property over time in a particular market, and arrive at a valuation pattern which can be used to give a short‐term forecast of valuation fluctuations using longitudinal rather than cross‐sectional analysis. Shows that it is possible to do this by using a novel process we have termed “backtrack valuations” or “backtracking”. The method proposed creates a simulated historic record of valuations, from which a neural network can be trained and then used as a model to estimate a forward trend. This is allied to the requirement in the RICS Appraisal and Valuation Manual (Red Book) whereby the valuer may be instructed to provide Estimated Realisation Price which depends on completion taking place on a future date as compared with Open Market Value where achievement of completion is assumed at the date of valuation. There is also the new definition of “Forecast of Value” in the RICS Red Book and we suggest that the valuer would find the technique of forecasting from backtracked time series of interest and use in both these particular circumstances. The source of data for the investigation was Richard Ellis, International Property Consultants, who provided monthly valuations of 16 major commercial properties in Central London. Our forecasts are presented alongside the subsequent Richard Ellis valuations. The results confirm that in the conditions obtaining in this market, it is feasible to predict capital valuations in the short term. The method is being extended and tested in the wider commercial markets.

Details

Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-2712

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

Robert Hull, Rosemary Walker and Sungkyu Kwak

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of R&D manipulation on stock valuation for periods around IPOs. Insider manipulation is the difference in actual R&D change…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of R&D manipulation on stock valuation for periods around IPOs. Insider manipulation is the difference in actual R&D change minus predicted R&D change where a negative difference indicates R&D underinvestment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is designed to build on prior IPO research that has found reduced R&D expenditures when insiders lower their ownership. The paper derives an R&D manipulation variable that measures underinvestment in R&D. This variable is used in a regression methodology to test its influence on: IPO stock valuation at various points in time and post‐IPO price changes relative to the offer price.

Findings

The paper discovers that greater underinvestment in R&D is associated with greater values during the IPO stock valuation process. This association is reversed when the paper looks at short‐term valuation based on market prices. Only for bubble period IPOs do the paper finds poorer valuations for the long‐term. Larger insider ownership decreases lead to poorer valuations regardless of the period of occurrence. Greater R&D underinvestment and insider ownership decreases both lead to less underpricing.

Research limitations/implications

Like prior research, the paper assumes that knowledge about the change in R&D is known at the time of the offering. Interpretations for long‐run results can be tenuous due to unexpected changes that occur over time.

Practical implications

Investors should note that managers are able to set higher offer prices when they inflate earnings by underinvesting in R&D. Buying at an inflated offer price with R&D manipulation leads to losses in the aftermarket with these losses associated with IPOs that occur during a bubble period.

Social implications

Misrepresentation during the IPO valuation process affects those who buy shares at inflated prices. This raises ethical questions about the behavior of those involved in the issuance process.

Originality/value

This study is unique in testing how R&D manipulation and changes in insider ownership proportions impact the: IPO valuation process, post‐IPO valuation, and changes in the stock price over time relative to the offer price.

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2023

Xueqin Wang, Yiik Diew Wong and Kum Fai Yuen

The advent of digitalization and the trend of social distancing coincide with the individualized lifestyle that is emerging among contemporary shoppers. This study explores the…

Abstract

Purpose

The advent of digitalization and the trend of social distancing coincide with the individualized lifestyle that is emerging among contemporary shoppers. This study explores the unique market of “smart solo shoppers”. Two empirical studies are conducted, which aim to identify the major dimensions of multi-channel shopping activities that are engaged by the shoppers (Study 1, n = 64) and to differentiate the shoppers' valuation of time invested in the distinct dimensions under different cultural influences (Study 2, n = 519).

Design/methodology/approach

A survey questionnaire is used for data collection, and data are analyzed using structural equation modeling.

Findings

Results reveal that the shopping activities converge into four principal dimensions: offline shopping, online shopping, post-shopping delivery and product return activities. Shoppers who perceive offline shopping activities as a time burden and online shopping and delivery activities as venues of value creation are more strongly self-identified as smart solo shoppers. Furthermore, smart solo shoppers who are under a strong influence of individualistic culture are found to spend time on multi-channel shopping to make the right purchase the first time, whereas shoppers perceiving being in a weak individualistic culture prefer to engage online channels while being prepared to return the unwanted purchases.

Originality/value

This study highlights an emerging research field in the nexus of solo consumption and smart shopping. Emphasizing the utility-driven and ego-expressive nature of smart solo shoppers, the authors provide an initial profile of these shoppers based on their time-valuation patterns and the contextual impacts of individualistic culture.

Details

Internet Research, vol. 33 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1066-2243

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2010

Neil Dunse, Colin Jones and Michael White

The purpose of this paper is to address the variation of efficiency of local office markets. It has long been argued that as data in the property market are based on valuations

2070

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to address the variation of efficiency of local office markets. It has long been argued that as data in the property market are based on valuations, it has a tendency toward smoothing or stickiness. The accuracy of valuations is shown to be partially dependent on local variable factors such as the extent of information, the variability of local cycles and the heterogeneity of the stock. This paper assesses the efficiency of local office markets in nine cities of the UK by estimating unsmoothed annual time series of rents and returns and comparing with the original valuations.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses an econometric approach to identify true unobserved returns from observed smoothed data. It uses desmoothing techniques and compares the volatility of smoothed and desmoothed underlying returns. It then looks for autocorrelation over time in the errors where the presence of autocorrelation rejects the assumption of market efficiency.

Findings

Examining, regional city office markets, the results suggest that financial centres have the least efficient markets because of their high level of variability. Other provincial cities are characterised by weak‐form efficiency. Market cyclicality is found to be a key factor affecting valuation accuracy.

Research limitations/implications

Research in regional markets is often constrained by shortness and low frequency of time series observations. This limits the analysis and the ways in which it could be developed. Issues also relate to the method of desmoothing adopted.

Practical implications

Key financial centre are found to be less efficient markets than other cities. Thus, price changes fully embody all previous information in regional centres but not in London or Edinburgh. Periods of significant cyclical volatility tend to cause valuation inaccuracy and pricing problems.

Social implications

There are spillovers from inefficiencies in property market pricing that can affect other sectors of society directly (through increased costs) or indirectly (by contributing to macroeconomic cyclicality).

Originality/value

This is the first paper to explicitly consider the efficiency of regional city office markets and to identify the true unobserved returns series in each city office market. Its findings, perhaps unexpectedly, suggest that most regional city office markets are more efficient at processing pricing information than London.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1983

ANGUS McINTOSH and STEPHEN SYKES

In a previous paper Sykes derived a mathematically consistent investment valuation model for freehold properties which he referred to as the Rational Model. This new model…

Abstract

In a previous paper Sykes derived a mathematically consistent investment valuation model for freehold properties which he referred to as the Rational Model. This new model overcomes certain serious failings of other methods commonly in use. The present paper readdresses the arguments of the earlier paper in a manner rather more familiar to a practising valuer and compares current methods of valuation with the Rational Model. It is also shown that the Rational Model can be simply adapted for the valuation of leasehold interests without resorting to a separate (and usually quite artificial) ‘sinking fund’ rate.

Details

Journal of Valuation, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7480

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2022

Anil Boz Semerci

This study highlights the business failure experienced in pandemic times, its impact on entrepreneurs' perception of failure and the reciprocal relationship between entrepreneurs'…

Abstract

Purpose

This study highlights the business failure experienced in pandemic times, its impact on entrepreneurs' perception of failure and the reciprocal relationship between entrepreneurs' perception of failure and individual ambidexterity.

Design/methodology/approach

The study provides empirical evidence on interpreting the long-term outcomes of business failure in pandemic times and develops a deeper insight by utilizing a two-year research design (time 1: 2020 and time 2: first half of 2021). It draws on data from 200 entrepreneurs who experienced business failure in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic times which is a global crisis.

Findings

The results revealed that both challenge and hindrance appraisals of failure are associated with individual ambidexterity over time. Self-efficacy and social valuation of re-entry decisions are mediators between hindrance appraisal and individual ambidexterity on both time 1 and time 2. Moreover, there is a positive reciprocal relationship between self-efficacy and ambidexterity throughout the two time periods. In regard to participants' current employment status, hindrance appraisal, self-efficacy and perceptions of ambidexterity linkages were found to be significantly different in terms of unemployment and employment.

Originality/value

To the best of the author's knowledge, it is the first time that the individual ambidexterity of failed entrepreneurs was explored after hard times in the pandemic. It comprehensively helps to understand the importance of cognitive appraisal of hard times and identifies the perceptional and behavioral consequences of failure in entrepreneurship.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 35 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 February 2011

Masudul Alam Choudhury

The arguments of this chapter that are set up against the prevailing Islamic economic and finance intellection and practice arise from the economic and methodological premises on…

Abstract

The arguments of this chapter that are set up against the prevailing Islamic economic and finance intellection and practice arise from the economic and methodological premises on behavior, markets, and institutional structure that together influence asset valuation. All these are bonded together to explain how methodology defines the domain of financial engineering in mainstream and Islamic perspectives. Mainstream financial engineering as a study of methods that stand upon the assumptions of behavior, markets, and institutions of the neo-classical vintage is critically examined. This is contrasted with the Islamic perspectives of the same issues that lay out an altogether different methodological worldview. Different forms of asset-valuation models emerge in these two cases. The Islamic premise of behavior, markets, and institutions is utilized against the backdrop of its most fundamental epistemology.

Details

Contributions to Economic Analysis
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-721-6

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1995

Richard Lovell and Nick French

Studies the effects of the downturn in the property market in thelate 1980s on banking business practices and the banks′ consequentreassessment of their reliance on loan‐to‐value…

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Abstract

Studies the effects of the downturn in the property market in the late 1980s on banking business practices and the banks′ consequent reassessment of their reliance on loan‐to‐value ratios for lending purposes. Looks at the philosophy underlying the RICS′s publication, in September 1995, of new valuation guidance notes and highlights the importance of the new requirements placed on the valuer.

Details

Journal of Property Finance, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0958-868X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2000

Neil Crosby

Valuation accuracy usually conjures up images of empirical studies of comparisons between sales and valuations and different valuations of the same properties, and a number of…

5625

Abstract

Valuation accuracy usually conjures up images of empirical studies of comparisons between sales and valuations and different valuations of the same properties, and a number of references to these studies are included in the paper. However, this paper concentrates on the institutional influences which impact on valuations and their accuracy. The overall aim of this paper is to examine the legal interpretation of valuation inaccuracy in the UK. This might seem a bit parochial in the context of a World Valuation Congress. However, cases in many countries in the Commonwealth form precedents for each other and therefore decisions in, for example, the UK and Australasia, are drawn on by others in reaching decisions. The paper also reaches conclusions which have wider implications for all jurisdictions which have valuation disputes settled in courts, tribunals and any other quasi‐judicial body.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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