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The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of a theoretically motivated statistical model to accurately forecast annual, national counts of terror attacks out-of-sample.

Bayesian multi-level models, classification analysis, marginal calibration plots

We find that the model forecasts reasonably well, but conclude that its overall performance suggests that it is not ready for use in policy planning. This is likely due to the coarse temporal and spatial aggregation of the data.

The implications of this study are that social scientists should devote more effort into evaluating the predictive power of their statistical models, and that annual, national data on violent conflict are probably too coarse to provide useful information for policy planning.

The primary value of our modeling effort is to provide a baseline against which to evaluate the performance of more region- and country-specific models to be developed in the future.

The fundamental idea that we seek to establish in this chapter is that the establishment of regional or local, peace calls forth global peace. In other words, our argument is that local and regional conflicts are partly driven by global factors, especially what is commonly known as international tension. In order to achieve meaningful and sustained peace, there is a reason to believe that it is mandatory to manage and contain international tensions. The main thesis of this chapter is to explain or posit, conflicts as a product of continuing international chasms, splits and differences of political and social ideologies in our modern world. Thus, we argue that conflicts are, to some extent, driven by international tension or global, ideological and geo-political factors. Notwithstanding the global influence, local factors – such as income inequality, income growth or lack of it, political institutions – can and do exacerbate conflicts and a peaceful resolution of conflicts becomes a difficult phenomenon.

Pyrotechnic effects and spectacular death belong to the symbolism of terror and political assassination – bizarre techniques of miscommunication through fear practiced on the innocent and designed to effect social change. While focusing on the use of terror in 9-11, this article deals with both terror and political assassination as closely related communicative practices of death. It outlines a theory of terrorism that suggests September 11 may be an example of expedient terrorist destruction ordered from within the state, a macabre instance of a state protection racket. Commentators on the left tend to see terrorism as a blow extended by the oppressed against exploiters. However, terrorism is much less likely to be a manifestation of a revolt by – or on behalf of – the underprivileged than a demonstration of brute force by the state or its agents. Machiavellian state terrorism is terror/assassination performed for reasons different from the publicized ones; often initiated by persons or groups other than those suspected of the act; and – most important – secretly perpetrated by, or on behalf, of the violated state itself. Machiavellian state terror advances the ruling agenda, while disguising itself as the work of individuals or groups opposed to the state's fundamental principles. As an example, the article reviews a mysterious 1971 assassination in Paris that obliquely foreshadows some critical elements of the official story of 9-11. The article underlines the importance of oppositional theorizing: questioning government and looking for connections between events are critical features of what it means to be vitally active in the political universe.

A widely accepted belief indicates that terror activities have negative impact on stock markets. Contrary to numerous empirical studies, the purpose of this paper is to consider this issue from another point of view in the sense that markets can become desensitized to terror.

Here, instead of directly analyzing the existing data, the stochastic nature of the events is taken into consideration.

The author compares three countries and found out that the correlation between terror and stock markets is almost nil when terror events become a commonplace.

This paper applies mean reverting stochastic processes to terror incidents and brings out interesting results.

The argument that terror perception and individual time perspectives can affect behaviors has become increasingly relevant. This study analyzed the association of terror perception with financial risk and developed an integrated framework of the interaction between terror perception (mortality salience) and time perspective to determine risky investment. People with different time perspectives have different acknowledgments of risk. Two studies of terror perception leading to more or less risky investment choices supported this framework to demonstrate that individuals exhibit more (less) risky investment behavior when terror perception is salient and they have a high (low) present hedonic time perspective.

Two experiments were performed. Study 1 tested whether TP moderates the effects of terror priming (aging) on risky financial investment. Study 2 tested the effects of terror priming on risky financial investment decisions and the role of gender and the present hedonic TP (PH) in moderating these effects. The following hypotheses were then developed: H1: Participants with high PH primed with the aging condition will select riskier financial investments than those with low PH will (Study 1). H2: Male participants with higher PH primed in the death condition will select riskier financial investments than those in the control condition will (Study 2).

Because people with different TPs acknowledge risk differently, this article developed a new framework modeling MS on TP in risky investment selection. Two studies representative of MS affecting risky investment decision-making were conducted to test the framework. The results of the two studies indicated that individuals engaged in risky investment behavior more (less) when mortality was salient and the individual had high (low) PH. Moreover, gender influences these results. As anticipated, male participants with higher PH in the death-primed condition selected riskier financial investment than those in the control condition did. Additional research from a broader perspective is warranted.

Many psychological factors of risky decision-making have been discussed, such as motivational systems or situational motivation, self-framing, control orientation, sensation seeking, dishonesty, and ambiguity (Sekścińska et al., 2016). However, few studies have examined temporal framing, also known as time perspective (TP), the psychological concept of a person's relationship with time. This study mainly discusses the effects of terror perception on risky financial decisions by using a theoretical framework based on TP, which influences the effects of MS on risky financial decision-making. When mortality is made salient, individuals with present hedonic TP have behaviors characterized by risk perception. Those with present hedonic TP are more likely to make risky financial investments because they prefer present pleasure and risk over future outcomes (Zimbardo and Boyd, 2015).

The purpose of this paper is to study the following: short-run and long-run associations between the terror-affected country’s stock market index and other global countries’ equity indices and gold; the volatility of stock market indices when one of the countries is affected by a terrorist attack; and the linkages between terrorism and the returns in the selected stock markets.

To study the impact of the Taj attack on other global indices, the authors selected top five countries’ stock market indices, namely, FTSE, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC and DAX. The short-run and long-run associations are also compared with gold. The authors used the autoregressive distributed lag model, LM test and bounds test for analyzing the short-run and long-run impact; ARCH family models to study the volatility impact; and the MAR model to study the impact on returns.

The authors found that all the global indices had a short-run association with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX and CAC also fell; that is, it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index.

The authors studied the short-run and long-run associations with only five countries’ benchmark indices.

The authors found that all the global indices had long- and short-run associations with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Global indices like DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX and FTSE had a short-term association with the affected country’s index. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX, TSX, BVSP and CAC also fell; i.e., it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index. In all the relationships were mixed with respect to terror attacks, and GOLD took the lead run out of all the associations it had in the 16-year time span from 2000 to 2016.

The research has got an important implication to the investors. It shows that patience is the key, as all the indices had only short-term associations with the BSE. It implies that investors’ returns will be negative in the short run, but if they continue investing, in the long run, the impact of terrorism tapers out and the returns will increase.

There is a lot of research done on the impact of the US attacks on the stock markets of other countries, but on the impact of the Taj attack in India, there is hardly any research.

The purpose of this paper is to study the financial facilitators who provide financial muscle to terrorists.

The methodology adopted is based on the available materials on two major terrorists groups: Al Qaeda and LTTE, who have terrorized the global community in the last two decades.

The key findings are that most financial facilitators are knowledgeable, literate and suave and who are kin of the top leadership or part of the clan/sect. Kinship is an important factor for trust worthiness, which leads to their association with the top level leadership for a decade or so, to handle aspects related to a terror group. Also, illegal fund raising/moving aspects are controlled by financial/operational heads of groups, while legal fund raising methods are handled by sympathizers.

The methodology is based on descriptive analysis of existing materials gathered from different writings of different persons in different places, as none of the traditional approaches to the study is possible. The only possible method for analysis is a behavioural approach, and that too on a selective basis, not in total.

Government intelligence agencies need to strive to identify such facilitators, who in turn may lead them to the top leadership, as happened in the cases of Osama bin laden and Hambali.

There is no previous systematic approach which has attempted to study the financial facilitators who provide financial muscle to terrorists. The value of this paper lies in its originality of presentation of facts in a systematic fashion.

The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to studying religion in social studies classrooms through reframing. The authors encourage this reframing through the lens of citizenship and terror as a human experience.

This is a practitioner’s piece and did not include research methodology or design.

This is a practitioner’s piece and did not include any findings.

This paper presents practical approaches to examining religion in social studies classrooms through a comparison with citizenship and the lens of terror. The authors offer activities which current classroom teachers will be able to put into action immediately. In addition, the authors offer a detailed background for further study if teachers wish to learn more.

This paper presents ways to study religion in the social studies and in the current fractured social environment the authors feel is needed. The authors wish to showcase how to examine a controversial issue in a reflective, respectful and honest fashion.

The authors present the idea of studying religion through the lens of terror while showcasing how it mirrors the requirements of citizenship. The authors believe that studying religion in this way in the social studies will help to demystify the topic and allow students to unpack religion as a topic in social studies.

This study aims to explore the topic of perceived terrorism risk and animosity as interrelated within the context of countries suffering from armed struggles and terror. The research investigates how these constructs influence the visitation decisions of millennials.

The investigation focuses on three countries in the Mediterranean basin with varied degrees of risk but who include a conflict area, for comparison purposes. The data was collected through an online questionnaire aimed at young millennial students.

The study confirms that animosity, for the millennial generation, is derived from conflicts and past historical events, or from political and social issues in the target country. In addition, the results show that animosity not only influences the perceived attractiveness of the destination, and through it the intention to visit the place, but also increases the perceptions of terror risk at the destination.

The research corroborates the importance of investigating animosity and perceived risk together. It also empirically verifies the influence of animosity on visitation intentions via the mediating role of perceived attractiveness of the destination and perceived risk of terror.

The study investigates animosity in countries that suffer from armed political conflicts resulting in terror attacks, a context different from that of other already existing studies. The research also examines how animosity and perceived risk interact with each other to influence visitation decisions, a topic which is lacking in the literature.