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1 – 10 of 80Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan
The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter.
Findings
Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model.
Originality/value
Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.
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Xingwen Wu, Zhenxian Zhang, Wubin Cai, Ningrui Yang, Xuesong Jin, Ping Wang, Zefeng Wen, Maoru Chi, Shuling Liang and Yunhua Huang
This review aims to give a critical view of the wheel/rail high frequency vibration-induced vibration fatigue in railway bogie.
Abstract
Purpose
This review aims to give a critical view of the wheel/rail high frequency vibration-induced vibration fatigue in railway bogie.
Design/methodology/approach
Vibration fatigue of railway bogie arising from the wheel/rail high frequency vibration has become the main concern of railway operators. Previous reviews usually focused on the formation mechanism of wheel/rail high frequency vibration. This paper thus gives a critical review of the vibration fatigue of railway bogie owing to the short-pitch irregularities-induced high frequency vibration, including a brief introduction of short-pitch irregularities, associated high frequency vibration in railway bogie, typical vibration fatigue failure cases of railway bogie and methodologies used for the assessment of vibration fatigue and research gaps.
Findings
The results showed that the resulting excitation frequencies of short-pitch irregularity vary substantially due to different track types and formation mechanisms. The axle box-mounted components are much more vulnerable to vibration fatigue compared with other components. The wheel polygonal wear and rail corrugation-induced high frequency vibration is the main driving force of fatigue failure, and the fatigue crack usually initiates from the defect of the weld seam. Vibration spectrum for attachments of railway bogie defined in the standard underestimates the vibration level arising from the short-pitch irregularities. The current investigations on vibration fatigue mainly focus on the methods to improve the accuracy of fatigue damage assessment, and a systematical design method for vibration fatigue remains a huge gap to improve the survival probability when the rail vehicle is subjected to vibration fatigue.
Originality/value
The research can facilitate the development of a new methodology to improve the fatigue life of railway vehicles when subjected to wheel/rail high frequency vibration.
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This paper aims to study the determinants of private investment in Egypt while accounting for uncertainty associated with financing decisions of the firm using time series…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study the determinants of private investment in Egypt while accounting for uncertainty associated with financing decisions of the firm using time series analysis over the period 1982-2015. The analysis is based on Tobin’s (1969) Q-theory of investment. The variables used in the empirical model are investment rate, average q index, prices of capital goods, internal finance and external finance.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is concerned with the model specification of a dynamic Average Q model. In that respect, the current research describes the data, presents the empirical methodology and estimates the Average Q model of investment and obtains the results. The empirical procedures and results of studying the average Q model. It includes testing for the unit root in the time series, vector error correction model (VECM) and cointegration long run analysis, and finally estimations of the model under uncertainty and empirical results.
Findings
Stochastic shocks to the determinants of private investment in Egypt have their impact on investment rate. The representation of impulse response in VECM shows that a one standard deviation shock to the value of the firm has a positive impact on investment rate. Stochastic shocks to both internal finance and external finance have slightly positive response from investment rate. Also, a stochastic shock to investment rate has a positive yet declining response from itself. However, a stochastic shock to prices of capital goods has a negative impact on investment rate. The representation of variance decomposition in VECM shows that investment rate is positively affected yet at a declining rate by a one standard deviation shock in both internal and external finance during the period 1982-2015. Also, a stochastic shock in the value of the firm or in the prices of capital goods has a slightly positive impact on investment rate.
Originality/value
Investment and capital accumulation are the main vehicles for economic growth and development. There have been fluctuations in Egypt’s investment rates since mid-1970s due to variations in saving rates. Thus, it is important to present some policy implications that could potentially assist the enhancement of the Egyptian economy. In that respect, the estimated results of the empirical model show that changes in the prices of capital goods in Egypt are significant factors that have negative impact on investment rate. Prices of imported capital goods in Egypt are affected by foreign exchange market conditions in the form of significant changes in the pound exchange rate. Thus, foreign exchange market reforms, as adopted recently in the Egyptian economy and improvements in trade balance, are important steps to alleviate obstacles that hinder investment. Regarding the source of finance, the estimated results showed that changes in both internal and external finance have a positive impact on investment rate. In this case, it is the firm’s decision to choose the method of financing its investment depending on factors such as its market value, institutional size and capacity and the opportunity cost of the funds used in financing the required investment.
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Saban Nazlioglu, Mehmet Altuntas, Emre Kilic and Ilhan Kucukkkaplan
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis by using unit root approaches without and with structural breaks and non-linearity.
Findings
The PPP is valid for the GIIPS countries. Considering structural breaks in non-linear framework plays a crucial role.
Originality/value
There is no empirical study testing PPP hypothesis by focusing on the GIIPS countries. This study further takes into account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the real exchange rates of these countries.
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Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU…
Abstract
Purpose
Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU and the US long-term government bond yields on oil prices using quantile-based analysis and nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model. The author hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the GEPU and the long-term bond yields of the USA have different effects on oil prices.
Design/methodology/approach
To address this question, the author uses quantile cointegration model and the impulse response functions (IRFs) of the censored variable approach of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011).
Findings
The quantile cointegration test showed the existence of non-linear cointegration relationship, whereas Granger-causality analysis revealed that positive/negative variations in GEPU will have opposite effects on oil prices. This result was supported by the quantile regression model’s coefficients and nonlinear VAR model’s IRFs; more specifically, it was stressed that increasing/decreasing GEPU will deaccelerate/accelerate global economic activity and thus lead to a fall/rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the empirical models indicated that the impact of US 10-year government bond yields on oil prices is asymmetrical, while it was found that deterioration in the borrowing conditions in the USA may have an impact on oil prices by slowing down the global economic activity.
Originality/value
As a robustness check of the quantile-based analysis results, the slope-based Mork test is used.
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Harendra Kumar Behera and Inder Sekhar Yadav
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.
Design/methodology/approach
To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.
Findings
The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.
Practical implications
Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.
Originality/value
The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.
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Stella Nwawulu Chiemela, Florent Noulèkoun, Chinedum Jachinma Chiemela, Amanuel Zenebe, Nigussie Abadi and Emiru Birhane
This paper aims at providing the evidence about how carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems could contribute to the decrease of atmospheric CO2 rates through the adoption…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims at providing the evidence about how carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems could contribute to the decrease of atmospheric CO2 rates through the adoption of appropriate cropping systems such as agroforestry.
Design/methodology/approach
Stratified randomly selected plots were used to collect data on tree diameter at breast height (DBH). Composite soil samples were collected from three soil depths for soil carbon analysis. Above ground biomass estimation was made using an allometric equation. The spectral signature of each plot was extracted to study the statistical relationship between carbon stock and selected vegetation indices.
Findings
There was a significant difference in vegetation and soil carbon stocks among the different land use/land cover types (P < 0.05). The potential carbon stock was highest in the vegetation found in sparsely cultivated land (13.13 ± 1.84 tons ha−1) and in soil in bushland (19.21 ± 3.79 tons ha−1). Carbon sequestration potential of the study area significantly increased (+127174.5 tons CO2e) as a result of conversion of intensively cultivated agricultural lands to agroforestry systems. The amount of sequestered carbon was found to be dependent on species diversity, tree density and tree size. The vegetation indices had a better correlation with soil and total carbon.
Originality/value
The paper has addressed an important aspect in curbing greenhouse gases in integrated land systems. The paper brings a new empirical insight of carbon sequestration potentials of agroforestry systems with a focus on drylands.
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Han Wu, Tao Wang, Tuo Dai, Xiaoyu Wang, Yuanzhen Lin and Yizhou Wang
This paper aims to design a vision-based non-contact real-time accurate heart rate (HR) measurement framework for home nursing assistant.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to design a vision-based non-contact real-time accurate heart rate (HR) measurement framework for home nursing assistant.
Design/methodology/approach
The study applied Second-Order Blind Signal Identification (SOBI) algorithm to extract remote HR signal and analyzed it with Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Multiple regions of interest are chosen and analyzed to obtain a more accurate result.
Findings
An accurate non-contact hear rate (HR) measurement framework is proposed and proved to be efficient.
Originality/value
The contributions of this HR measurement framework are as follows: accurate measurement of HR, real-time performance, robust under various scenes such as conversation, lightweight computation which is suitable and necessary for home nursing assistance. This framework is designed to be flexibly used in various real-life scenes such as domestic health assistance and affectively intelligent agents and is proved to be robust under such scenes.
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This study aims to identify clusters amongst the county housing markets in Poland, taking into account the criteria of size and quality of the housing stock, as well as price…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify clusters amongst the county housing markets in Poland, taking into account the criteria of size and quality of the housing stock, as well as price level. In addition, this work is intended to detect the socio-economic factors driving the cluster formation.
Design/methodology/approach
To group the studied housing markets into homogeneous clusters, this analysis uses a proprietary algorithm based on taxonomic and k-means++ methods. In turn, the generalised ordered logit (gologit) model was used to explore factors influencing the cluster formation.
Findings
The results obtained revealed that Polish county housing markets can be classified into three or four homogeneous clusters in terms of the size and quality of the housing stock and price level. Furthermore, the results of the estimation of the gologit models indicated that population density, number of business entities and the level of crime mainly determine the membership of a given housing market in a given cluster.
Originality/value
In contrast to previous studies, this is the first to examine the existence of homogeneous clusters amongst the county housing markets in Poland, taking into account the criteria of size and quality of the housing stock, as well as price level simultaneously. Moreover, this work is the first to identify the driving forces behind the formation of clusters amongst the surveyed housing markets.
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Qiming Chen, Xinyi Fei, Lie Xie, Dongliu Li and Qibing Wang
1. To improve the causality analysis performance, a novel causality detector based on time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TD-CCM) is proposed in this work. 2. Identify the root…
Abstract
Purpose
1. To improve the causality analysis performance, a novel causality detector based on time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TD-CCM) is proposed in this work. 2. Identify the root cause of plant-wide oscillations in process control system.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel causality analysis framework is proposed based on denoising and periodicity-removing TD-CCM (time-delayed convergent cross mapping). We first point out that noise and periodicity have adverse effects on causality detection. Then, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and detrended fluctuation analysis (FDA) are combined to achieve denoising. The periodicities are effectively removed through singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Following, the TD-CCM can accurately capture the causalities and locate the root cause by analyzing the filtered signals.
Findings
1. A novel causality detector based on denoising and periodicity-removing time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TD-CCM) is proposed. 2. Simulation studies show that the proposed method is able to improve the causality analysis performance. 3. Industrial case study shows the proposed method can be used to analyze the root cause of plant-wide oscillations in process control system.
Originality/value
1. A novel causality detector based on denoising and periodicity-removing time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TD-CCM) is proposed. 2. The influences of noise and periodicity on causality analysis are investigated. 3. Simulations and industrial case shows that the proposed method can improve the causality analysis performance and can be used to identify the root cause of plant-wide oscillations in process control system.
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