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The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?

The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter.

Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model.

Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.

The methodology/approach is to forecast the population of 30 European countries with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson–Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Three scenarios are considered: the zero-migration scenario where the authors assume that the Muslim population has a higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern; a 2017 migration scenario: to the Muslim population obtained in the zero-migration scenario, the authors add a continuous flow of migrants every year based on year 2017; the mid-point migration scenario is obtained by averaging the data of the two previous scenarios.

Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.

The growing Muslim population will change the face of Europe socially, politically and economically. This paper will provide a better insight and understanding of Muslim population dynamics to European governments, policymakers, as well as social and economic planners.

The purpose of this paper is to present forecasts of fossil fuels prices until 2030 with spectral analysis to provide a clearer picture of this energy sector.

Fossil fuels prices time series are decomposed in simpler signals called approximations and details in the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are recomposed after Burg extension.

In 2019-2030 average price forecasts of: West Texas intermediate (WTI) oil ($58.67) is above its 1986-2030 long-term mean of $47.83; and coal ($81.01) is above its 1980-2030 long-term mean of $60.98. On the contrary, 2019-2030 average of price forecasts of: Henry Hub natural gas ($3.66) is below its 1997-2030 long-term mean of $4; heating oil ($0.64) is below its 1986-2030 long-term mean of $1.16; propane ($0.26) is below its 1992-2030 long-term mean of $0.66; and regular gasoline ($1.45) is below its 2003-2030 long-term mean of $1.87.

Fossil fuels prices projections may relieve participants of WTI oil and coal markets but worry participants of Henry Hub, heating oil, propane and regular gasoline markets including countries whose economy is tied to energy prices.

The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy between 2014 and 2017. Trades and investments have plummeted, leading to significant budget deficits. In response, the government unveiled a plan called Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016 which has triggered structural economic reforms leading to an unprecedented strategy of transition from an oil-driven economy to a modern market economy.

This paper forecasts with spectral analysis economic indicators of the Saudi economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of the future economy assuming that the effects of recent reforms have not yet been traced by most of the economic indicators.

2018–2030 forecasts are all bearish except West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price expected to average $64.40 during the period 2019–2030. Two additional exceptions are the Saudi population that should grow to 40 million in 2030 and the swelling gross domestic product (GDP) generated by the non-oil sector resulting from bold actions of the Saudi government who is willing to become less dependent on revenues generated by the oil sector.

Government policymakers, economists and investors would have with spectral forecasts better insight and understanding of the Saudi economy dynamics at the early stage of major economic reforms implemented in the country. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt the Saudi economy following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The impact on the Saudi economy will depend on the optimal response brought by its government.

Saudi Vision 2030 plan has already triggered a deep transformation of the Saudi society that is reviewed in this paper.

The forecast of Saudi economic indicators is a timely topic considering the challenges facing the economy and reforms being undertaken. Applying an original forecasting technique to economic indicators adds to the originality of the paper.

Performance measurement (PM) of any supply chain is prerequisite for improving its competitiveness and sustainability. This paper develops a framework for supply chain performance measurement (SCPM) for agriculture supply chain (ASC) based on internet of things (IoT). Moreover, this article explains the role of IoT in data collection and communication (SC visibility) based on the supply chain operation reference (SCOR) model.

This research identifies various key performance indicators (KPIs) and also their role in SCPM for improving its sustainability by using SCOR. Further, Shannon entropy is utilized for weighing the basic processes of SCPM and by using weights, fuzzy TOPSIS is applied for ranking of identified KPIs at metrics level 2 (deeper level).

“Flexibility” and “Responsiveness” have been reported as two most important KPIs in IoT based SCPM framework for ASC towards achieving sustainability.

In this research, metrics are explained only at SCOR level 2. But, this research will guide the managers and practitioners of various organizations to set their benchmark for comparing their performance at different levels of business processes. Further, this paper has managerial implications to develop an effective system for PM of IoT based data-driven ASC.

By using IoT based data driven system, this article fills the gap between SCPM by measuring different SC strategies in their performance measurable form of reliable, responsive and asset management etc.

The purpose of this paper is to test the performance of the control system developed for the helicopter automatic approach and landing on the moving vessel deck, when different values of backlashes are applied to the four control actuators.

The system consists of automatic control algorithm based on the linear quadratic regulator and the vessel motion prediction algorithm based on autoregressive method with parameters calculated using Burg’s method. Necessary navigation data is provided by on-board inertial navigation system/Global Positioning System. Calculated control commands are executed by four electromechanical actuators. Performance of the mission, which is based on selected procedure of approach and landing of the helicopter on the moving vessel deck, is analyzed taking into account different values of backlashes applied to the actuators.

In this paper, a description of the control system dedicated for automatic approach and landing of the helicopter on the moving vessel deck is shown. Necessary information about helicopter dynamic model, control system and vessel motion model is included. Tests showing influence of actuator backlashes on the mission performance are presented.

The developed control methodology can be adapted for selected helicopter and used in prospective development of an automatic flight control system (AFCS) or in a simulator. The system can be used to define in which conditions helicopter can perform safe and successful automatic approach and landing on a moving vessel deck.

In this paper, an integrated control system is presented; influence of the control actuator backlashes on the mission performance is analyzed.

The purpose of this study is to test the performance of the designed automatic control system based on the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) algorithms during landing of the helicopter on the ship deck. This paper is a further development of the series based on Topczewski et al. (2020).

The system consists of two automatic control algorithms based on LQR and the LQG. It is integrated with the ship motion prediction system based on autoregressive algorithm with parameters calculated using Burg’s method. It is assumed that the source of necessary navigation data is integrated Inertial Navigation System with Global Positioning System. Landing of the helicopter on the ship deck is performed in automatic way, based on the preselected procedure. Performance of the control system is analyzed when all necessary navigation data is available for the system and in case when one of the parameters is unavailable during performing the procedure.

In this paper, description of the designed control system developed for performing the approach and landing of the helicopter using selected procedure is presented. Helicopter dynamic model is validated using the manufacturer data and by test pilots, overview is presented. Necessary information about ship motion model is also included. Tests showing mission performance while using LQR and LQG algorithms applied to the control system are presented and analyzed, taking into account both situations when full navigation data is available/unavailable for the control system.

Results of the system performance analyses can be used for selection of the proper control methodology for prospective helicopters autopilots. Furthermore, the system can be used to analyze the mission safety when information about one of the navigation parameters is identified by the navigation system as unavailable or incorrect and therefore unavailable during landing on the ship deck.

In this paper, control system dedicated for the automatic landing of the helicopter on the ship deck, based on two different control algorithms is presented. Influence of lack of information about one of the navigation parameters on the mission performance is analyzed.

Economists have, in the last 20 years, made many contributions to the study of the deterrent effect of sanctions on criminals — these are surveyed in Brief & Fienberg (1980), Blumstein & Cohen (1978), Tullock (1974), Palmer (1977) and Taylor (1978). A considerable amount of the empirical work has dealt with crime supply functions for specific types of crime. Surprisingly little attention has been given to the switching of criminals between crimes in response to differentials in deterrence. Only three empirical studies of this phenomenon have appeared: Heineke (1978), Holtmann & Yap (1978), Hakim et al. (1984). All of these use cross‐section US data for property crimes. Their findings are thus somewhat tentative given that they may not hold up in other national contexts. This paper seeks to remedy this gap by studying substitution behaviour for burglary, robbery and theft using 1981 data for the police force areas of England and Wales. We compare our results with those of American researchers and also examine the impact of substitution on the broad conclusions of the conventional non‐substitution model.

The goal of this essay is to examine the conflict resolution activities during political diplomacy as a dynamic and interactive process. In an application of Relational Order Theory (Donohue, 1998), this essay employs a model highlighting the instrumental, relational, and identity‐based issues involved in conflict resolution. To illustrate the utility of this model of Relational Process Management, this essay examines the process of diplomacy leading to the Dayton Accords in the areas of the Former Yugoslavia. For years the international community's efforts at intervention in this conflict were quite meager, as ceasefires and peace plans were brokered and dissolved with some regularity. Ultimately, a final coordinated effort by multiple external parties finally brought the combatants to the table in Dayton, Ohio to negotiate a formal agreement. The complex process by which the parties came to the negotiating table provides a rich case study by which to explore the interactive processes of diplomacy. An examination of the events in this case through the lens of instrumental, relational, and identity‐bound issues culminates with lessons learned from this interactionally‐based analysis of international conflict.