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This paper investigates whether tax incentives can effectively promote capital investment and research spending simultaneously. Tax history provides the experimental setting to compare the influences of these tax initiatives. Analysis shows that firms respond to the research tax incentives by increasing R&D spending but do not significantly react to the policies promoting greater capital investment. More importantly, the results indicate that the tax incentives are negatively related to other types of investment with reduced R&D spending in the presence of incentives for capital investment and capital expenditures decreasing when research is encouraged by tax policy.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of a consumer confidence shock on GDP and different types of consumer spending during a slack state as well as a non-slack state of an economy.

The authors use the US quarterly data from 1960Q1 to 2014Q4 and apply Jorda’s (2005) local projection method to compute the impulse responses of macroeconomic variables to a consumer confidence shock. The local projection method allows us to include non-linearities in the response function.

In general, the response of output, following a consumer confidence shock, is similar in slack and non-slack states and indicate that an unfavorable confidence shock is contractionary. However, the intensity and duration of impact of a confidence shock on different components of spending are state dependent. Overall, a negative confidence shock appears to have a stronger impact on non-slack time than on a slack time.

Policy makers should be careful about undertaking a policy action that may affect consumer confidence adversely, particularly during an economic good time. An adverse confidence shock can trigger a downfall in a well-functioning economy and the dampening effect may last for several quarters before the economy rebounds.

US economy is subject to fluctuations; however, the literature on the impact of confidence shock in different economic states is limited. The incremental contribution of this paper is that it investigates how the consumers respond to the confidence shock in a state-dependent model. Furthermore, the authors use a more robust and alternative estimation method that tackles any non-linear problems.

This paper aims to examine how much importance the financial market attaches to advertising spending’s short-term productivity vis-à-vis its investment component and the impact of important contextual factors (investor mix and analyst coverage) on this trade-off.

A stochastic frontier estimation (SFE) approach is used to help disentangle advertising spending. Using a panel internal instruments model and 10,017 firm-year observations from publicly listed US companies over a 13-year period, this study relates aggregated advertising spending and disentangled advertising spending, together with important contextual factors, to Tobin’s q.

The results do not indicate an effect of aggregated advertising spending on Tobin’s q. However, after advertising spending is disentangled, results show the component with an efficient immediate revenue response to have a positive effect on Tobin’s q, whereas the effect of the remaining investment component is negative. Contextual factors moderate investors’ valuation of the components.

Findings are limited to US publicly listed firms, and are based on secondary, non-experimental data. The results imply that investors reward firms only for short-term advertising productivity, casting doubt on investors’ understanding of the long-term value of marketing.

The results confirm managers’ belief that not all money spent on advertising creates shareholder value. Managers should use the outlined SFE to benchmark their firms’ short-term advertising productivity against that of industry peer firms.

This study advances a new perspective, suggesting that advertising spending can be decomposed into two distinct parts by considering how financial market investors evaluate advertising spending. Important contextual effects on this evaluation from firms’ investor mix and analyst coverage are also shown for the first time. The findings help in reconciling conflicting prior results, and shed new light on how the financial market evaluates marketing expenditures.

Prior research highlights the vital role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) for innovation in response to environmental conditions. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the determinants of ICT investments on the innovation activities of firms in relation with their impacts on the industrial and competitive dynamics using large data sets. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

In this paper, the authors investigate the effects of ICT investments on the industrial and competitive dynamics for a large and representative panel data set. All the industries are included, and lagged effects of ICT investments are studied. The model is tested on a seven-year panel (2008–2014) of 231 Italian industries using two-stage least squares instrumental-variables estimators with industry time and fixed effects.

The results indicate that munificent industries and higher ICT spending are interrelated facts, showing that in sectors with more growth opportunities firms invest more in ICT and this leads to higher industry concentration, greater profit dispersion and higher competitive turbulence in the sector. Also, the paper shows that SMEs can rarely take advantage of their ICT-based innovation to start high-growth phenomena.

The results suggest that ICT-based innovation may create competitive advantages that are hard to sustain over the long-term raising important implications for managers involved in ICT-enabled innovations and policy-makers involved in building programs to foster innovation.

Against the backdrop of today’s digital transformation, the paper enriches our understanding on the disruptive effects exerted by the digitalization of the innovation process and provides a base to continue the investigation of industrial changes and competitive dynamics.

The purpose of this paper, on Portugal, is to determine the economic effects of public and private capital spending on health.

The authors use a vector autoregressive model to estimate the elasticities and marginal products of health care investments in Portugal on investment, employment and output.

Every €1m invested in health care yields significant positive spillover effects, boosting investment and GDP by €24.74 and €20.45m, respectively, creating 188 net jobs. Adversely, net exports deteriorate, as new capital goods are imported. While only 28.2 percent of the total accumulated increase in GDP occurs within a year, investment is front loaded with a corresponding 73.8 percent. Over this period, 68 workers are displaced for every €1m invested. At a disaggregated level, real estate, construction, and transportation and storage are industries where output shares increase the most. Employment shares increase the most in professional services, construction and basic metals.

This paper adds to the empirical literature, corroborating, for example, Rivera and Currais (1999a) and McDonald and Roberts (2002) in that health care spending can have a very significant effect on macroeconomic aggregates. In addition to the analysis of the tradable/non-tradable divide, it adds two further novelties by discussing industry-specific effects on economic performance and the distinction between effects on impact and those over the longer term.

As policy implications, health investments have very significant long-term economic performance effects, but are unhelpful counter cyclically. Also, they will change the industry mix: construction and professional services are the non-traded industries that will benefit the most, while the traded industries of non-metallic minerals, basic metals, and machinery and equipment benefit much less.

Given that capital spending on health boosts economic performance, especially in the long run, it ought to be a part of Portugal’s medium-to-long-term growth strategy. Also, if these projects depress economic activity in the short run, and are thus unhelpful counter cyclically, the timing of when they are launched matters. Furthermore, following a health investment, policies that boost net exports will be required to ensure trade balance.

The originality of this paper is to estimate, in a dynamic framework, the aggregate and industry-specific elasticities and marginal products on investment, employment and output, allowing the identification of effects both on impact and over the long term. Although health care investments are expected to have important macroeconomic effects, they need not be evenly distributed across industries.

Government spending has inconclusive effect on real exchange rate. From the very beginning neoclassical economists argued that a rise in government spending brings depreciation in real exchange rate while neo-Keynesians claimed that government spending appreciates real exchange rate. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending shock and its components' shocks, namely government consumption and government investment on real exchange rate over the period 2001Q1–2016Q1 for Ethiopia.

To examine the effects of government spending shocks on real exchange rate, Jordà's (2005) local projection method is employed in this study. The exogenous shocks, however, are identified recursively in a vector autoregressive model.

The impulse responses show that government spending shock leads to a statistically significant appreciation of real exchange rate in Ethiopia. This evidence supports the neo-Keynesian school of thought who predicts an appreciation of real exchange rate from a rise in government spending. While government investment shock depreciates real exchange rate on impact insignificantly, government consumption shock appreciates real exchange rate in this small open economy.

This research contributes to the scarce literature on the effect of fiscal policy shock on real exchange rate in small open economies like Ethiopia.

The literature on defense-welfare tradeoffs has not been characterized by an emphasis on theory development. Indeed, most work has concentrated on using increasingly sophisticated statistical techniques to isolate empirical relationships in spending data on various countries. Unfortunately, however, this empirical enterprise has proven inconclusive, with some studies finding trade-offs and others not. In this paper, we suggest that a greater focus on theory development may help to resolve some of the empirical conflicts in this literature. In particular, we argue that there are at least two substantial bodies of theoretical work available that, while relevant to guns-butter questions, have remained to a large extent unexploited. One conclusion that we draw from this exercise is that the discussion of tradeoffs should probably move away form its current focus on primarily direct exchanges between spending on guns and butter, and instead begin to explore more indirect links which are acting through the economy.

The management of external debt among highly indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in Africa still remains a challenge despite numerous packages and attempts to ameliorate the consequences of such odious debt. The purpose of this paper is to establish the factors that contribute to the growth rate of external debt and how these factors respond to shocks to external debt growth rate in Africa.

Data were obtained from 24 African countries and analyzed using a panel vector autoregression estimation methodology.

The study found that external debt growth rates respond positively to unit shock or changes in government investment spending, consumption spending, and domestic borrowings over a long period of time. In the medium term, external debt growth rates respond negatively to shocks in tax revenue, inflation, and output growth rates. The paper also provides empirical support that external debt may be consumed rather than invested among HIPCs in Africa.

The findings of this paper are limited to only HIPCs in Africa.

This study has some few debilitating implications for external debt management among HIPCs in Africa. First, the paper suggests that debt repayment may be a problem. This is largely because external debt is consumed rather than invested. External debt sustainability needs a holistic approach in less developed countries. The findings place much emphasis on improvements in gross domestic product and tax revenues as the principal routes out of the debt doldrums. However, this option must be exploited with great caution as there is ample evidence that these poor countries increase their external borrowing capacities with improvements in economic outlook.

This paper fills a research gap that identifies specific components of government deficit budgets that may be contributing to the growth rate of external debts among HIPCs.

The purpose of this paper is to study the short‐term macroeconomic effects of the fiscal policy in Colombia for the 1980‐2007 period using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model.

The authors' benchmark is a five‐variable SVAR model which includes government spending, output, tax revenues, inflation and short‐term interest rates. In addition, the authors specified six‐variable VAR models, adding in turn private consumption, private investment, the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage to the last set of variables. Two alternative identification techniques are used in the VARs to check the robustness of the results.

The following effects of a positive government spending shock are found. First, the GDP responds positively and significantly during the first six quarters. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19. Second, both inflation and nominal interest rates respond positively and significantly. Third, the authors find a significant positive response by both private consumption and private investment. Finally, the unemployment rate reacts negatively and significantly.

The most surprising result comes from the response of output to a positive shock in taxes. Nonetheless, the positive respond of the GDP is short lived and has little significance.

The authors' results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast.

The negligible results found previously for Colombia could be related to the fiscal data used, which are not keep coherence with national accounting. To solve these obstacles, a quarterly fiscal database is assembled on an approximately accrual basis for the general government.