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1 – 10 of over 2000Johari Hussein Nassor Amar and Tanja Tyvimaa
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of beneficial externality generated by the World Heritage List (WHL) on residential property values in order to offer new…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of beneficial externality generated by the World Heritage List (WHL) on residential property values in order to offer new insights into heritage discourses.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the hedonic price model to estimate empirically the difference in prices for residential properties located in the Old Rauma World Heritage. The study uses residential sales transaction data from the City of Rauma from January 2005 to September 2012 drawn from an online database called KVKL Hintaseurantapalvelu managed by the Central Federation of Finnish Real Estate Agencies.
Findings
The research results indicate a positive, but insignificant, relationship between the property sale prices (euros/sqm) and heritage designation. However, the total sale prices are higher in Old Rauma as the properties are significantly larger in Old Rauma compared to other properties in Rauma.
Originality/value
Studies in heritage economics have assessed the influence of the property market on heritage listing and designation at either the national level, the local level or a mix of national/local levels. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing the impact of a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) world heritage designation on residential property values. UNESCO is the leading global institution which deals with the protection of heritage sites that transcend national and local boundaries.
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Anthony Owusu-Ansah, Samuel Azasu and William Seremi Thantsha
This paper aims to investigate the effects of school quality (SQ) on residential property prices in Johannesburg, South Africa. Previous studies have empirically examined the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the effects of school quality (SQ) on residential property prices in Johannesburg, South Africa. Previous studies have empirically examined the quality of private and public schools without a standard proxy that is accepted in the literature. As a result, this paper extends the literature to the global south by the effect that SQ has on residential property price changes in the local markets of the City of Johannesburg.
Design/methodology/approach
The research adopts the hedonic pricing model to evaluate and quantify the impact that the structural attributes such as erf size; number of bedrooms and bathrooms; and SQ measured by pass rates, sport rankings and quality of facilities have on house prices. A total of 2,763 property transactions covering the Kensington and Observatory areas of the City of Johannesburg over the period 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the deeds registry and used for the empirical analysis.
Findings
The study finds that SQ has a positive impact on house prices. When the average pass rate of the model school increases by 1%, all other things being equal, house prices also increase by 1.8%. This suggests that people who live closer to the model school are willing to pay more when the school performance improves. The 1.8% premium this study attributes to a 1% increase in school performance is however generally low when compared to some findings in the literature suggesting that there may be some other important factors that households consider when purchasing their home.
Originality/value
The main contribution is uncovering the relationship between the SQ and residential property prices in the local markets, using Kensington and Observatory in Johannesburg as sampled areas. Due to the presence of reliable and quality of data sets, such studies are not many in the global south and a study of this nature in South Africa is notably not existing in the literature.
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Shanaka Herath, Vince Mangioni, Song Shi and Xin Janet Ge
House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers…
Abstract
Purpose
House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices.
Design/methodology/approach
We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources.
Findings
Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market.
Research limitations/implications
We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.
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The paper provides a detailed historical account of Douglass C. North's early intellectual contributions and analytical developments in pursuing a Grand Theory for why some…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper provides a detailed historical account of Douglass C. North's early intellectual contributions and analytical developments in pursuing a Grand Theory for why some countries are rich and others poor.
Design/methodology/approach
The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.
Findings
The systematic, continuous and profound attempt to answer the Smithian social coordination problem shaped North's journey from being a young serious Marxist to becoming one of the founders of New Institutional Economics. In the process, he was converted in the early 1950s into a rigid neoclassical economist, being one of the leaders in promoting New Economic History. The success of the cliometric revolution exposed the frailties of the movement itself, namely, the limitations of neoclassical economic theory to explain economic growth and social change. Incorporating transaction costs, the institutional framework in which property rights and contracts are measured, defined and enforced assumes a prominent role in explaining economic performance.
Originality/value
In the early 1970s, North adopted a naive theory of institutions and property rights still grounded in neoclassical assumptions. Institutional and organizational analysis is modeled as a social maximizing efficient equilibrium outcome. However, the increasing tension between the neoclassical theoretical apparatus and its failure to account for contrasting political and institutional structures, diverging economic paths and social change propelled the modification of its assumptions and progressive conceptual innovation. In the later 1970s and early 1980s, North abandoned the efficiency view and gradually became more critical of the objective rationality postulate. In this intellectual movement, North's avant-garde research program contributed significantly to the creation of New Institutional Economics.
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Valery Yakubovsky and Kateryna Zhuk
This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.
Findings
The investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.
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The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression in predicting housing prices in Prishtina.
Design/methodology/approach
Using Python, the models were assessed on a data set of 1,512 property transactions with mean squared error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and root mean squared error as metrics. The study also conducts variable importance test.
Findings
Upon preprocessing and standardization of the data, the models were trained and tested, with the decision tree model producing the best performance. The variable importance test found the distance from central business district and distance to the road leading to central business district as the most relevant drivers of housing prices across all models, with the exception of support vector machine model, which showed minimal importance for all variables.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, the originality of this research rests in its methodological approach and emphasis on Prishtina's real estate market, which has never been studied in this context, and its findings may be generalizable to comparable transitional economies with booming real estate sector like Kosovo.
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Sunday Olarinre Oladokun and Manya Mainza Mooya
Challenges of property data in developing markets have been reported by several authors. However, a deep understanding of the actual nature of this phenomenon in developing…
Abstract
Purpose
Challenges of property data in developing markets have been reported by several authors. However, a deep understanding of the actual nature of this phenomenon in developing markets is largely lacking as in-depth studies into the actual nature of data challenge in such markets are scarce in literature. Specifically, the available literature lacks clarity about the actual nature of data challenges that developing markets pose to valuers and how this affects valuation practice. This study provides this understanding with focus on the Lagos property market.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilises a qualitative research approach. A total of 24 valuers were selected using snowballing sampling technique, and in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted. Data collected were analysed using thematic analysis with the aid of NVivo 12 software.
Findings
The study finds that the main data-related challenge in the Lagos property market is the lack of database of market property transactions and not the lack or absence of transaction data as it has been emphasised in previous studies. Other data-related challenges identified include weak property rights institution with attendant transaction costs, underhand dealings among professionals, undocumented charges, undisclosed information, scarcity of data relating to specialised assets and limited access to the subject property and required documents during valuation. Also, the study unbundles the factors responsible for these challenges and how they affect valuation practice.
Practical implications
The study has implication for practice in the sense that the deeper knowledge of data challenges could provide insight into strategy to tackle the challenges.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the body of knowledge by offering a fresh and in-depth perspective to the issue of data challenges in developing markets and how the peculiar nature of the real estate market affects the nature of data challenges. The qualitative approach adopted in this study allowed for a deep enquiry into the phenomenon and resulted into an extended insight into the peculiar nature of data challenges in a typical developing property market.
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Sharmila Devi R., Swamy Perumandla and Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya
The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors. In this study, investment satisfaction was a mediator, while reinvestment intention was the dependent variable.
Design/methodology/approach
A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive research design was used, gathering data from a sample of 550 residential real estate investors using a multi-stage stratified sampling technique. The partial least squares structural equation modelling disjoint two-stage approach was used for data analysis. This methodological approach allowed for an in-depth examination of the relationship between rational factors such as location, profitability, financial viability, environmental considerations and legal aspects alongside irrational factors including various biases like overconfidence, availability, anchoring, representative and information cascade.
Findings
This study strongly supports the adaptive market hypothesis, showing that residential real estate investor behaviour is dynamic, combining rational and irrational elements influenced by evolutionary psychology. This challenges traditional views of investment decision-making. It also establishes that behavioural biases, key to adapting to market changes, are crucial in shaping residential property market efficiency. Essentially, the study uncovers an evolving real estate investment landscape driven by evolutionary behavioural patterns.
Research limitations/implications
This research redefines rationality in behavioural finance by illustrating psychological biases as adaptive tools within the residential property market, urging a holistic integration of these insights into real estate investment theories.
Practical implications
The study reshapes property valuation models by blending economic and psychological perspectives, enhancing investor understanding and market efficiency. These interdisciplinary insights offer a blueprint for improved regulatory policies, investor education and targeted real estate marketing, fundamentally transforming the sector’s dynamics.
Originality/value
Unlike previous studies, the research uniquely integrates human cognitive behaviour theories from psychology and business studies, specifically in the context of residential property investment. This interdisciplinary approach offers a more nuanced understanding of investor behaviour.
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This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.
Abstract
Purpose
This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, this study meticulously investigates the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on apartment and house (unit) prices in India during the period from 2000 to 2022.
Findings
The findings of this study indicate that economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on property prices, but noteworthy asymmetry is observed, with positive changes in effect having a more pronounced impact than negative changes. This asymmetrical effect is particularly prominent in the case of unit prices.
Originality/value
This research reveals that long-run price trends are also influenced by factors such as interest rates, building costs and housing loans. Through a comprehensive analysis of these factors and their interplay with property prices, this research paper contributes valuable insights to the understanding of the real estate market dynamics in Indian cities.
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Ahmed Shoukry Rashad and Mahmoud Farghally
The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has…
Abstract
Purpose
The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study.
Design/methodology/approach
For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE.
Findings
The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment.
Originality/value
Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.
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