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The purpose of this paper is to outline a version of SinoTERM, a multi‐regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China that has been updated and disaggregated further to enhance the agricultural detail. A version of the model is publicly available and will be useful to CGE modelers studying Chinese agricultural issues (www.monash.edu.au/policy/sinoterm.htm).

The paper outlines data sources for building SinoTERM. It contains a CGE application to agriculture in China. Unlike the national input‐output table published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the master database of SinoTERM contains many agricultural sectors.

CGE models that represent a nation as a single economy may offer rich insights into winners and losers from particular policy scenarios. Multi‐regional analysis takes this a step further by comparing outcomes for regions in which particular industries are a relatively large part of the economy.

This paper builds on the first SinoTERM paper in several ways. First, the database is disaggregated further to represent tea, sugar cane and silkworms as individual sectors in the CGE database. Second, given the extraordinary economic growth in China, the national and regional database has been updated to 2006 using data from the 2007 yearbook. Third, the paper contains an application to agriculture: it examines the impacts of productivity growth in different agricultural sectors in China.

The regional CGE model used in this application could be used to explore many other policy issues concerning agriculture in China.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.

In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.

We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.

Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.

There is a large body of literature on the link between trade liberalisation, growth and poverty. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between trade and regional disparities. The purpose of this paper is to identify and quantify the regional impacts of trade liberalisation, particularly in the war-affected regions and to understand to what extent trade reforms can contribute to the post-war recovery process and long-term economic and political stability in Sri Lanka.

The authors developed a single country multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sri Lankan economy to meet the need for a detailed country study as emphasised in the recent literature.

Both short-run and long-run results suggest that all regions including war-affected regions in the country gain from trade liberalisation, although gains are uneven across regions. Furthermore, the results suggest that war-affected regions gain more relative to some other regions in the long run.

According to the best of the authors’ knowledge within country regional impact of trade liberalisation using a multi-regional CGE model has never been attempted for Sri Lanka. The results of this study, even though based on Sri Lankan data, will be relevant to other developing countries engulfed in internal conflicts with regional economic disparities.

Climate change will have a significant impact on China’s potential agricultural production and change the distribution of the population in various regions of China, thus producing population migration. This paper aims to analyze China’s population migration in response to climate change and its socio-economic impact.

In this paper, the Potential Agriculture Production Index is introduced as an analytical tool with which to estimate the scale of the population migration induced by climate change. Also, this paper constructs a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and analyzes the effect of change in the population distribution pattern on regional economies, regional disparity and resident welfare.

The key finding of this paper is that, as a result of changes in potential agricultural production induced by climate change, the Circum-Bohai-Sea region, the industrialized region and the industrializing region, which are the main destination regions of the migrating population, will face a severe labor shortage. In response to population migration, the economic growth rate of the immigrating population regions has accelerated. Correspondingly, the economic growth rate of the emigrating population regions has decreased. In addition, the larger the scale of population migration is, the larger the economic impact is. Migration increases inner-regional disparity and decreases inter-regional disparity. However, overall regional disparity is only somewhat decreased.

This paper introduces a Potential Agriculture Production Index to estimate the scale of the population migration and introduce a multi-regional CGE model to analyze the correlated social-economic impacts.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how a drought which initially affects agricultural productivity can ultimately affect an entire economy. The study aims to assess the magnitude of the impact as well as highlight key issues that can inform the implementation of drought mitigation programmes.

The paper presents the literature on the economic impact of drought and uses a computable general equilibrium model where productivity shocks are applied to the agricultural industries following which the resulting impacts on the rest of the sectors of the economy are obtained.

The findings show that the key macroeconomic variables, namely, real GDP, industry output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption are negatively affected by the drought shock.

The results point to the fact that in the absence of drought mitigation mechanisms, the occurrence of even a short drought as modelled in this paper can impose substantial socioeconomic losses.

First, a general equilibrium framework which uses climate and economic data when evaluating the social-economic impacts of drought is used. Most studies employ partial equilibrium analysis in analysing drought impacts on specific sectors or crops within a limited geographical area. Others use global or multi-regional models which impose averages on the observed impacts. The current study provides valuable insights on the potential damage which droughts can impose on a single economy. This gives a basis for decision making to support drought mitigation policies and programmes.

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy.

This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT.

Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA.

The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

This paper aims to present and discuss some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries.

Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a tourism climate index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitation, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. The authors estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model.

The authors found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The authors found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.

A great deal of uncertainty affects, in particular: estimates of future climate conditions, especially for variables different from temperature, the relationship between climate and tourist demand, and its interaction with socio-economic variables. This also depends on the reliability of the TCI index as an indicator of climate suitability for tourism, on its application to spatially and temporally aggregated data, on the degree of responsiveness of tourism demand to variations in the TCI. Furthermore, as the authors followed here a single region approach, the authors were not able to consider in the estimates the impact of climate change on the global tourism industry. Nonetheless, the authors believe that a quantitative analysis like the one presented here is not without scope. First, it provides an order of magnitude for the impact of climate change on tourism and the national economy. Second, it allows to assess systemic and second-order effects, which are especially relevant in this context and, moreover, appear to be sufficiently robust to alternative model specifications. In other words, the value added of this study does not lie in the specific figures obtained by numerical computations, but on the broader picture emerging from the overall exercise.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in which, by assessing higher tourism attractiveness into a general equilibrium framework, the effect described above is detected and highlighted.

Known as the major capital providers in Belt and Road countries and the largest carbon emitter in the world, what role China's outward direct investment (ODI) plays in carbon neutralization has become a matter of concern. This study aims to measure the impact of China's ODI on the carbon emissions of Belt and Road countries.

Based on an econometric model and an inter-regional input–output model, a new model measuring the carbon emission effects of ODI is developed.

The empirical results show that (1) in general, China's ODI generates an emission-reduction effect in Belt and Road countries; (2) The relationship between the emission-reduction effect and income level of host countries shows an approximate inverted U-shaped trend; and (3) China's ODI generates stronger emission-reduction effects on capital-intensive industries.

This study quantitatively measures the scale of carbon emission-increase and reduction effect, which is relatively lacking in previous studies. This study explores the heterogeneity from the perspectives of regions, countries and industries. The authors have compiled an inter-regional input–output table for the Belt and Road countries for 2014 to provide a broad basis for the study of related issues.

Climate change affects the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence, especially, in poor tropical countries. This paper aims to attempt to conceptualize the potential economic repercussions of such effects with its focus on Ethiopia.

The paper is conceptual and descriptive in its design. It first reviews existing literature and evidence on the economic burdens of malaria, and the impacts of climate change on malaria disease. It then draws the economic implications of the expected malaria risk under the future climate. This is accompanied by a discussion on a set of methods that can be used to quantify the economic effects of malaria with or without climate change.

A review of available evidence shows that climate change is likely to increase the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence in Ethiopia. The economic consequences of even a marginal increase in malaria risk will be substantial as one considers the projected impacts of climate change through other channels, the current population exposed to malaria risk and the country’s health system, economic structure and level of investment. The potential effects have the potency to require more household and public spending for health, to perpetuate poverty and inequality and to strain agricultural and regional development.

This paper sheds light on the economic implications of climate change impacts on malaria, particularly, in Agrarian countries laying in the tropics. It illustrates how such impacts will interact with other impact channels of climate change, and thus evolve to influence the macro-economy. The paper also proposes a set of methods that can be used to quantify the potential economic effects of malaria. The paper seeks to stimulate future research on this important topic which rather has been neglected.