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Abstract

Details

Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 April 2023

Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.

Findings

Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.

Research limitations/implications

The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.

Originality/value

The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-615-83253-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2023

Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…

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Abstract

Purpose

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

Findings

The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Practical implications

As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.

Originality/value

The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2005

Luz Centeno Stenberg and Mahinda Siriwardana

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling to deforestation and forestry issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is carried out by comparing different CGE models available in the literature, which have analysed the economic consequences of deforestation and changes in forestry policies.

Findings

The use of CGE models in analysing forestry issues is still in its early stages. There is room for innovation and improvement in the various models used.

Practical implications

The paper emphasises the relevance of general equilibrium analysis in the evaluation of both micro‐ and macro‐economic policies on forestry. It encourages researchers to use general equilibrium analysis in their study of environmental problems.

Originality/value

The paper highlights the contribution and possible benefits of utilising CGE models in analysing environmental problems such as deforestation, especially in the context of environment‐economics trade‐off.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Roberto Roson and Camille Van der Vorst

This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE

Abstract

This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. It does so not only by contrasting and assessing the different methodological approaches, and the key findings of the simulation exercises, but also by putting the various contributions in a historical perspective. This is necessary because each CGE-based study should be evaluated while keeping in mind when it was realised, since questions, priorities, expectations have been constantly changing during the spreading of the pandemic.

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Elizabeth Louisa Roos and Philip David Adams

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy.

Findings

This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT.

Research limitations/implications

Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA.

Originality/value

The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 April 2012

Abdykappar Ashimov, Bahyt Sultanov, Zheksenbek Adilov, Yuriy Borovskiy, Nikolay Borovskiy and Askar Ashimov

The purpose of this paper is to present some results of the development of parametrical regulation theory elements for computable general equilibrium models (CGE models), taking…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present some results of the development of parametrical regulation theory elements for computable general equilibrium models (CGE models), taking into consideration their peculiarities.

Design/methodology/approach

Theoretical results have been obtained by means of applying geometrical methods for variational problems and methods of the theory of discrete dynamic systems. These results have been used for solving concrete practical problems.

Findings

The authors proved a statement on the existence of solution for variational calculus problem on the choice of the optimal laws of parametrical regulation within the given finite set of algorithms for discrete dynamic systems. A statement has been proved on sufficient conditions for the existence of an extremal's bifurcation point of variational calculus problem on the choice of the optimum laws of parametrical regulation within the given finite set of algorithms for discrete dynamic systems. Optimal laws of parametrical regulation (on the level of one and two parameters) of economic system evolution on the basis of the examined mathematical model have been defined. The bifurcation line was constructed for the given area of uncontrolled parameter values.

Practical implications

The research results can be applied for the choice and realization of an effective state budget and tax policy.

Originality/value

The paper elaborates the elements of parametrical regulation theory of economic system development on the basis of CGE models and shows the effectiveness of parametrical regulation theory application on the example of one CGE model.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 August 2019

Le Trung Ngoc Phat and Nguyen Kim Hanh

The purpose of this paper is to employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to examine how the European–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) impacts on the Vietnamese…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to examine how the European–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) impacts on the Vietnamese economy in the case of the removal of industrial tariffs.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors construct a social accounting matrix based on the latest data of the Vietnam input-output Table for the year 2012 and then apply the CGE model to simulate the economic scenarios when the tariff rate of the industrial sector reduces to 0 percent.

Findings

The first simulation results demonstrate that the elimination of tariffs in the industrial sector will lead to a 9.13 percent increase in household consumption, together with an increase in the factors of production of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors by 9.61, 9.74 and 8.21 percent, respectively. The EVFTA also causes a deficit in the trade balance because the value of imports increases by 12.54 percent, while exports’ value slightly increases by 2.71 percent. Furthermore, there has been a drop of 2.29 percent in the total government income; nevertheless, social welfare witnesses a gain of 9.13 percent. The second scenario simulation draws crucial attention to policymakers that a small fluctuation in the production tax rate will cause a significant change in the economy.

Practical implications

The reduction of tariff in the industrial sector will increase the social welfare and strengthen the whole economy regarding the growth of household consumption, factors of production and trade value. On the unfavorable side, the EVFTA causes a national budget deficit and puts pressure on domestic production. This paper is a valuable reference for governments and policymakers when they decide to reduce tariffs or adjust production taxes once Vietnam integrates into the world economy.

Originality/value

This study differs from previous research works by utilizing a static CGE model to investigate the impact of removing the industrial tariff on the economy under EVFTA.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-5330

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Ageliki Anagnostou, Vyron Bourelias and Paweł Gajewski

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.

Findings

We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.

Originality/value

Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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