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The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.

HCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).

Indices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.

The primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.

Results demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.

For tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.

This paper aims to present and discuss some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries.

Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a tourism climate index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitation, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. The authors estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model.

The authors found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The authors found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.

A great deal of uncertainty affects, in particular: estimates of future climate conditions, especially for variables different from temperature, the relationship between climate and tourist demand, and its interaction with socio-economic variables. This also depends on the reliability of the TCI index as an indicator of climate suitability for tourism, on its application to spatially and temporally aggregated data, on the degree of responsiveness of tourism demand to variations in the TCI. Furthermore, as the authors followed here a single region approach, the authors were not able to consider in the estimates the impact of climate change on the global tourism industry. Nonetheless, the authors believe that a quantitative analysis like the one presented here is not without scope. First, it provides an order of magnitude for the impact of climate change on tourism and the national economy. Second, it allows to assess systemic and second-order effects, which are especially relevant in this context and, moreover, appear to be sufficiently robust to alternative model specifications. In other words, the value added of this study does not lie in the specific figures obtained by numerical computations, but on the broader picture emerging from the overall exercise.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in which, by assessing higher tourism attractiveness into a general equilibrium framework, the effect described above is detected and highlighted.

Climate change is most apparent through the increased severity and frequency of extreme events. Tourism as an activity is particularly sensitive. This paper aims to investigate the impact that climate change has on Xiamen tourism through a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of questionnaire responses.

A fuzzy classification system of tourism factors most sensitive to climate change was built on the basis of an analytical hierarchical process.

A “relatively strong” association grade of the impacts of climate change on tourism was observed. Through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the method used has allowed for clear classification of the aspects of tourism, through its development, which are more vulnerable to climate change. The results acquired here can serve as reference material for stakeholders on implementing risk assessments, deepening the understanding of how climate change affects tourism and coordinate the interests of different parties through the achievement of focused development and realize the optimum, long-term and sustainable exploitation of tourism resources.

The sensitivity of a variety of tourist sectors within Xiamen was assessed and represents the newest pre-COVID-19 opinions concerning the effect of climate change on tourism. Additionally, the data used in this study was also collected before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and will serve as an important marker to track how expert opinions of the effects of climate change on tourism change over time.

The chapter discusses the effects of climate change on tourism development in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by combining these countries into a single Eastern Baltic Sea Region. The chapter explores the current situation and investigates the trends that will affect the economic development if the present climate conditions are situated in historical context. The first part discusses how destinations can be better managed if they are informed by the scholarship on ecological modernization and updated by a coevolutionary approach to climate change. This discussion proceeds with an analysis of the impact climate change has on tourism following different scenarios of current and future climate conditions. The development of tourism in the Baltic countries is then assessed with references to sustainable development. Overall the chapter demonstrates how destinations can cope with the changing preferences of tourists even in the face of highly unpredictable climatic developments.

The purpose of this study is to review empirical studies on the relationship between climate change and tourism for a period of 15 years, from 2007 to 2021. The main variables analyzed were research subjects, topics and economic development levels.

Literature review was used to analyze articles published on climate change and tourism from 2007 to 2021. A staged article selection process was followed using the Scopus database. Statistical comparison tests found differences among sub-groupings of articles.

The research articles on climate change and tourism continued their upward trajectory until 2021. The 893 articles analyzed were published in 254 different journals, with over 60% from non-tourism or cross-disciplinary journals. Significant differences were found by time period and between developed and developing countries.

Gaps in the literature were detected with respect to policy analysis and it was concluded that the research for developing nations remains insufficient. More research should be encouraged to focus on the situation and solutions to climate change and tourism in developing countries. Additional research is also needed on biodiversity declines in destinations because of climate change.

This research dealt exclusively with empirical research studies in academic articles. It compared results across three different time periods and between developing and developed countries. Statistical tests supported the comparisons.

Climate change will affect tourism at several temporal and spatial levels. This chapter focuses on the quantification of effects and the development of strategies to reduce extremes and frequencies as well as thresholds in tourism areas. Knowledge about possibilities for mitigation and adaptation of current and expected climate conditions requires interdisciplinary approaches and solutions. Several examples are presented, including the effects of trees against climate change and extreme events (heat waves), behavior adaptations, urban and regional planning measures, bioclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean and human–biometeorological conditions under climate change conditions, and user-friendly computer tools for the quantification of urban bioclimate conditions.

Since the decline of export agriculture and the loss of trade preferences, most Caribbean countries have shifted their economies towards the provision of tourism services. Barbados, for example, receives more than two‐thirds of its foreign exchange earnings from tourism. The sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean can potentially be affected by climate change. This paper aims to address this issue.

This paper provides an assessment of the likely effects of climate change in the small state of Barbados and suggests some recommended adaptations. Climate change is expected to impact on temperature, rainfall and severe weather, sea levels and sea surface temperatures, biodiversity loss, and lead to erosion and seasonal shifts on the island.

The paper finds that, in relation to tourism demand, as travellers from source markets become more conscious of their carbon footprint and the implementation of green taxes, there might be some alteration in demand for long‐haul destinations such as Barbados. On the supply‐side, increased operating costs, due to higher insurance premiums (particularly for beachfront properties) and greater cooling costs, to name a few could all impact on the profitability of hotels in the island. As climate change impacts on the water table, there is also likely to be some competition for water resources for residential and tourism purposes.

The paper supplies useful information on sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean and the effects of climate change.

The tourism sector is facing significant challenges due to global climate change. The sector is a major contributor to carbon emissions while at the same time relied upon to drive regional development in Arctic Finland. This paradoxical situation highlights the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation policies and governance frameworks for both climate change and tourism. Finland has set one of the world’s most ambitious national climate mitigation targets into a legally binding framework. The state aims to be the first country in the global North to reach carbon neutrality by 2035. The new Climate Change Act 2022 outlines the key requirements for climate change policy planning and related monitoring and defines the national climate objectives. However, the tourism industry’s future growth potential in the Arctic Finland relies heavily on international tourism, which is largely based on the aviation sector. Tourism therefore faces a paradoxical situation for growth thinking in the current climate change policy context. Against this backdrop, this chapter aims to explore the complex issue of sustainable tourism development governance in the context of carbon neutrality policy in Arctic Finland. Specifically, it focusses on the potential contradictions between the role and needs of the tourism sector in regional development policies, and the responsibilities outlined in the Climate Change Act. This ‘wicked problem’ requires careful consideration and innovative solutions to ensure that tourism can continue to drive economic growth while also addressing the challenges of climate change.

The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.

Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published mostly in both science citation index and social sciences citation index journals were identified and analyzed.

This review finds that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, whereas disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area.

The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting.

This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices.

The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.