Search results

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Scholarly discussions on econometric analysis in the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the inadequacy of time series data has impeded studies of such nature in the region. Hence, this paper aims to comparatively analyse the impact of economic fundamentals on house prices in Namibia using real and interpolated data from 1990 to 2021 supported by the ARDL model.

It was discovered that in all the three types of data house prices were affected by fundamentals except real GDP in the long term. It was also noted that there were not much significant variations between the real data and the interpolated data frequencies. However, the results of the annual data and the semi-annual interpolated data were more analogously comparable to the quarterly interpolated data

It is suggested that the adoption of interpolated data frequency type should be based on the statistical significance of the result. In addition, the need to monitor the nexus of the housing market and fundamentals is necessary for stable and sustainable housing market for enhanced policy direction and prudent property investment decision.

The study pioneer to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries.

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate.

Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

This paper aims to examine the dynamic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy on real house price indices in five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, China, Thailand, Turkey and South Africa.

The authors use the local projection method with a panel data set of these countries spanning from January 2020 to July 2021.

The number of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases raised housing prices, whereas government containment measures reduced them. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policy implemented by central banks to cope with the COVID-19 helped increase housing prices. These effects were strengthened by the US monetary policy via globalized financial markets.

First, while previous researches typically concentrated on developed countries, the authors investigate emerging economies where proportionally more people were badly affected by the pandemic. Second, a panel data set of five emerging economies enabled the authors to examine the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 crisis on housing prices. Third, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the influences of easing monetary policy on housing prices in emerging economies during the pandemic.

This study aims to assess housing affordability and estimate demand using a hedonic regression model in the context of Lucknow city, India. This study assesses housing affordability by considering various housing and household-related variables. This study focuses on the impoverished urban population, as they experience the most severe housing scarcity. This study’s primary objective is to understand the demand dynamics within the market comprehensively. An understanding of housing demand can be achieved through an examination of its characteristics and components. Individuals consider the implicit values associated with various components when deciding to purchase or rent a home. The components and characteristics have been obtained from variables relating to housing and households.

A socioeconomic survey was conducted for 450 households from slums in Lucknow city. Two-stage regression models were developed for this research paper. A hedonic price index was prepared for the first model to understand the relationship between housing expenditure and various housing characteristics. The housing characteristics considered for the hedonic model are dwelling unit size, typology, condition, amenities and infrastructure. In the second stage, a regression model is created between household characteristics. The household characteristics considered for the demand estimation model are household size, age, education, social category, income, nonhousing expenditure, migration and overcrowding.

Based on the findings of regression model results, it is evident that the hedonic model is an effective tool for the estimation of housing affordability and housing demand for urban poor. Various housing and household-related variables affect housing expenditure positively or negatively. The two-stage hedonic regression model can define willingness to pay for a particular set of housing with various attributes of a particular household. The results show the significance of dwelling unit size, quality and amenities (R² > 0.9, p < 0.05) for rent/imputed rent. The demand function shows that income has a direct effect, whereas other variables have mixed effects.

This study is case-specific and uses a data set generated from a primary survey. Although household surveys for a large sample size are resource-intensive exercises, they provide an opportunity to exploit microdata for a better understanding of the complex housing situation in slums.

All the stakeholders can use the findings to create an effective housing policy. The variables that are statistically significant and have a positive relationship with housing costs should be deliberated upon to provide the basic standard of living for the urban poor. The formulation of policies should duly include the housing preferences of the economically disadvantaged population residing in slum areas.

This paper uses primary survey data (collected by the authors) to assess housing affordability for the urban poor of Lucknow city. It makes the results of the study credible and useful for further applications.

Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy direction. More importantly in the recent decade where policymakers are yet to conclude on the myriad of factors confronting the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa inhibiting affordability. This paper therefore examines the impact of market sentiment on house prices in South Africa.

The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with quarterly data spanning from 2005Q1 to 2020Q4.

In all, it was established that market sentiment plays a minimal role in the property market in South Africa. But there was enough evidence of cointegration from the bound test between sentiment and house prices. Nevertheless, the lag values of sentiment pointed to a rise in house prices. Exchange rate volatilities and inflation had a statistically significant effect on prices in both the long and short term, respectively.

Policymakers could still monitor market sentiment in the housing market due to the strong chemistry between house prices and sentiment, as evidenced from the bound test, but focus on economic fundamentals as the main policy tool for house price reduction.

The findings and the creation of the sentiment index make an invaluable contribution to the paper and add to the paucity of literature on the study of market sentiment in the housing market.

This paper aims to propose a model for democratization of Islamic home financing to tackle the issue of sustainability of homeownership affordability.

A conceptual framework and fractional equity model (FEM) are developed to incorporate big data analytics, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology in an ecosystem for affordability and sustainability of homeownership via the proposed financing model. In addition, the FEM adopts the simulation approach to show its validity in terms of liquidity when compared with traditional home financing. In this regard, this paper is focused on developing and demonstrating the feasibility of a new financing model, rather than testing specific hypotheses or relationships. This is to propose the democratization model for Islamic Home Financing that will not benefit the prospective home buyers without compromising the profitability of the financial institutions.

The findings indicate that the proposed end-to-end solution within the financing ecosystem can lead to more efficient matching market between the buyers and sellers of houses, reduced transaction costs, greater transparency and enhanced efficiency which in the end could lead to lower costs of owning homes and sustained financial resilience among house owners. The findings indicate that the FEM model is able to increase homeownership with more elements of liquidity, marketability and sustainability for homebuyers.

This research highlights the potential of big data and blockchain technology in democratizing Islamic home financing and evidence that the transfer of ownership is possible through tokenization. However, this will require a mature financing environment to adapt the technology for practical application.

The model proposes a solution to propagate shared prosperity among stakeholders such as the house buyers/owners, sellers, investors as well the government agencies. The proposed FEM model provides alternative home financing that is more marketable, flexible and sustainable for households/buyers and financiers.

It is hoped that with the proposed financing ecosystem to promote affordability and sustainability of homeownership via big data analytics, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology can lead to greater financial resilience for homeowners which can then be translated to enhanced well-being, increased productivity and can further promote economic growth.

This research is a concept paper based on academic research and industry collaboration with a technology provider.

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

The primary aim of this research is to examine the effects of the Renovation, Conversion, and Extension (ROT) tax deduction for renovations on the scope and quality of renovations and its subsequent impact on house prices across various Swedish municipalities.

This study utilises a two-way fixed effect instrument variable (IV) spatial Manski approach, analysing balanced panel data from 2004 to 2020 at the municipal level (290 municipalities) in Sweden. The methodology is designed to assess the impact of the ROT subsidy on the housing market.

The study reveals that the ROT subsidy has significantly influenced house prices, with noticeable variations between municipalities. These differences are attributed to the varying amounts of tax reductions for renovations and the extent to which property owners utilise these subsidies.

The research is limited to the context of Sweden and may not be generalisable to other countries with different housing and subsidy policies. The findings are crucial for understanding the specific impacts of government subsidies on the housing market within this context.

For policymakers and stakeholders in the housing market, this study highlights the tangible effects of renovation subsidies on property values. It provides insights into how such financial incentives can shape the housing market dynamics.

The research underscores the role of government policies in potentially influencing equitable access to housing. It suggests that subsidies like ROT can have broader social implications, including the distribution of housing benefits among different income groups and regions.

This study contributes original insights into the field of applied real estate economics by quantitatively analysing the impact of a specific government subsidy on the housing market. It offers a unique perspective on how fiscal policies can affect property values and renovation activities at the municipal level in Sweden.

This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in the housing market in Spain.

The study used cointegrating regression, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methodologies. The models are trained using quarterly time series data for these parameters from 2010 to 2022. A comprehensive examination is conducted to explore the relationship between macroeconomic issues and fluctuations in the HPI.

The results indicate statistically significant short-run effects (p < 0.05) of economic growth, inflation, Spanish stock indices, foreign trade and the interest rate on HPI. The inflation variables, Spain’s stock indices, interest rate and monetary rate, have statistically significant long-run effects (p < 0.05) on HPI. The exchange rate, unemployment and money supply have no substantial impact on HPI in Spain.

The study’s findings significantly contribute to increased information concerning the level of investing activity in the Spanish housing sector. After conducting an in-depth study of both the long-run and short-run connections with HPI, the study proved to be highly effective in formulating appropriate policies.