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Article
Publication date: 1 August 1999

Osamah Al‐Khazali

Vector‐autoregression (VAR), integration, and cointegration models are used to investigate the causal relations, dynamic interaction, and a common trend between interest rates and…

4083

Abstract

Vector‐autoregression (VAR), integration, and cointegration models are used to investigate the causal relations, dynamic interaction, and a common trend between interest rates and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific‐Basin. This paper finds that for all countries, short‐ and long‐term interest rates and the spread between the long‐term interest rates and inflation are non‐stationary I (1) processes. The nominal interest rates and inflation are not co‐integrated. In addition to this study’s inability to find a unidirectional causality between inflation and interest rates, when the VAR model is used, it also fails to find a consistent positive response either of inflation to shocks in interest rates or of interest rates to shocks in inflation in most of the countries studied. The VAR model results are consistent with the cointegration tests’ results, that is, nominal interest rates are poor predictors for future inflation in the Pacific‐Basin countries.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 37 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1982

MICHAEL HOLLIHAN

The literature concerning the subject of inflation and relative prices has been growing so fast in the last few years that a review in chronological order allows for a greater…

Abstract

The literature concerning the subject of inflation and relative prices has been growing so fast in the last few years that a review in chronological order allows for a greater understanding of the subject. This approach is taken here.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Article
Publication date: 1 November 2011

Girijasankar Mallik and Ramprasad Bhar

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries.

2884

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach takes the form of a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, used to derive impulse uncertainty and structural uncertainty.

Findings

This study attempts to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries, i.e. Canada, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. Decomposing inflation uncertainty into two components – impulse and structural, a positive association was found between the expected inflation and interest rates. Structural uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on interest rates for some countries. It has also been found that the long‐run effects of inflation on interest rates are less than unity for the post‐inflation targeting period, which implies that in some respect the Central Bank has been successful in targeting inflation. This has allowed the Central Bank to employ a less restrictive monetary policy in an environment of a credible inflation‐targeting strategy.

Research limitations/implications

Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) can be used instead of GARCH modelling.

Originality/value

This is the first study that has tried to establish the link between different types of inflation uncertainty and interest rates for the inflation‐targeting countries to see the effect of inflation targeting.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2004

Osamah M. Al‐Khazali

This paper investigates the generalized Fisher hypothesis for nine equity markets in the Asian countries. It states that the real rates of return on common stocks and the expected…

2285

Abstract

This paper investigates the generalized Fisher hypothesis for nine equity markets in the Asian countries. It states that the real rates of return on common stocks and the expected inflation rate are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in a one‐to‐one correspondence with the expected inflation rate. The regression results indicate that stock returns in general are negatively correlated to both expected and unexpected inflation, and that common stocks provide a poor hedge against inflation. However, the results of the VAR model indicate the lack of a unidirectional causality between stock returns and inflation. It also fails to find a consistent negative response neither of inflation to shocks in stock returns nor of stock returns to shocks in inflation in all countries. It appears that the generalized Fisher hypothesis in the Asian markets is as puzzling as in the developed markets.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 January 2024

Afees Adebare Salisu, Aliyu Akorede Rufai and Modestus Chidi Nsonwu

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate.

Findings

Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and Waël Louhichi

This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention…

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention to either the time-series properties of data and variables endogeneity. Using VECM framework, we examine the pass-through at different stages along the distribution chain, that is, import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices. When carrying out impulse response functions analysis, we find a higher pass-through to import prices with a complete pass-through (after one year) detected for roughly half of EA countries. These estimates are relatively large compared to single-equation literature. We denote that the magnitude of the pass-through of exchange rate shocks declines along the distribution chain of pricing, with the modest effect recorded for consumer prices. When assessing for the determinant of cross-country differences in the ERPT, we find that inflation level, inflation volatility, and exchange rate persistence are the main macroeconomic factors influencing the pass-through almost along the pricing chain. Thereafter, we have tested for the decline of the response of consumer prices across EA countries. According to multivariate time-series Chow test, the stability of ERPT coefficients was rejected, and the impulse responses of consumer prices over 1990–2010 provide an evidence of general decline in rates of pass-through in most of the EA countries. Finally, using the historical decompositions, our results reveal that external factors, that is, exchange rate and import prices shocks, have had important inflationary impacts on inflation since 1999 compared to the pre-EMU period.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2021

Vidhi Agarwal and Taniya Ghosh

Inflation targeting started in 1990 and since then, many industrial and emerging market economies have adopted it. This chapter attempts to study the impact of adoption of…

Abstract

Inflation targeting started in 1990 and since then, many industrial and emerging market economies have adopted it. This chapter attempts to study the impact of adoption of inflation targeting on major macroeconomic outcomes across the emerging market countries, by running a panel data study from 1980 to 2018. This chapter obtains mixed results with respect to different macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results indicate that inflation targeting has been successful in bringing down inflation, inflation volatility and GDP growth rate volatility, while inconclusive results are obtained for volatility in exchange rates.

Details

Recent Developments in Asian Economics International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-359-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2021

Siddhartha Chattopadhyay

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as…

Abstract

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as Neo-Fisherianism. This chapter proposes a policy based on Neo-Fisherianism to escape Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) using a textbook Forward Looking New Keynesian Model. I have shown that proposed policy with properly chosen inflation target and persistence can stimulate economy and escape ZLB by raising nominal interest rate. I have also shown that the proposed policy is robust to varying degrees of price stickiness.

Details

Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-594-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2021

Masudul Hasan Adil, Neeraj R. Hatekar and Taniya Ghosh

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at the beginning of the twenty-first century has been the virtual disappearance of what was once a dominant focus, the…

Abstract

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at the beginning of the twenty-first century has been the virtual disappearance of what was once a dominant focus, the role of money in monetary policy, and parallelly, the disappearance of the liquidity preference-money supply (LM) curve. Economists used to consider monetary policy with the help of the LM curve as part of the analytical framework which captures the demand for money. However, the workhorse model of modern monetary theory and policy, the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, only comprises the dynamic investment-savings (IS) curve, the New Keynesian (NK) Phillips curve, and a monetary policy rule. The monetary policy rule is generally known as the Taylor rule. It relates the nominal interest rate to the output-gaps and inflation-gaps, but typically not to either the quantity or the growth rate of money. This change in the modern monetary model reflects how the central banks make monetary policy now. This study provides a detailed discussion on the role of money in monetary policy formulation in the context of the NK and the New Monetarist perspectives. The pros and cons of abandonment of money or the LM curve from monetary policy models have been discussed in detail.

Details

Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-594-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Fouad Jamaani and Abdullah M. Alawadhi

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.

Findings

This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.

Practical implications

This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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