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Article
Publication date: 6 April 2021

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Olumide Steven Ayodele and Olajide Clement Jongbo

This study examines and compares different specifications of the fiscal policy rule in the fiscal sustainability analysis of Nigeria.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines and compares different specifications of the fiscal policy rule in the fiscal sustainability analysis of Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

This is methodologically achieved by estimating the baseline constant-parameter and Markov regime switching fiscal models. The asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag fiscal model is also employed to substantiate the differential responses of fiscal authorities to public debt.

Findings

The baseline constant-parameter fiscal model provides mixed results of sustainable and unsustainable fiscal policy. The inconclusiveness is adduced to instability in primary fiscal balance–public debt dynamics. This makes it necessary to capture regime switches in the fiscal policy rule. The Markov switching estimations show a protracted fiscal unsustainable regime that is inconsistent with the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC). The no-Ponzi game and debt stabilizing results of the Markov switching fiscal model further revealed that the transversality and debt stability conditions were not satisfied. Additional findings from the asymmetric autoregressive model estimation show that fiscal consolidation responses vary with contraction and expansion in output and spending, coupled with downturns and upturns in public debt dynamics in both the long and short run. These findings thus confirm the presence of asymmetries in the fiscal policy authorities' reactions to public debt. Further, additional evidences show the violation of the IBC which is exacerbated by the deleterious effect of the pro-cyclical fiscal policy response in boom on the improvement of the primary fiscal balance.

Originality/value

This study deviates from the extant literature by accommodating time variation, periodic switches and fiscal policy asymmetries in the fiscal sustainability analysis of Nigeria.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

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Book part
Publication date: 18 October 2011

Lennart Erixon

The new economic-policy regime in Sweden in the 1990s included deregulation, central-bank independence, inflation targets and fiscal rules but also active labour market…

Abstract

The new economic-policy regime in Sweden in the 1990s included deregulation, central-bank independence, inflation targets and fiscal rules but also active labour market policy and voluntary incomes policy. This chapter describes the content, determinants and performance of the new economic policy in Sweden in a comparative, mainly Nordic, perspective. The new economic-policy regime is explained by the deep recession and budget crisis in the early 1990s, new economic ideas and the power of economic experts. In the 1998–2007 period, Sweden displayed relatively low inflation and high productivity growth, but unemployment was high, especially by national standards. The restrictive monetary policy was responsible for the low inflation, and the dynamic (ICT) sector was decisive for the productivity miracle. Furthermore, productivity increases in the ICT sector largely explains why the Central Bank undershot its inflation target in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The new economic-policy regime in Sweden performed well during the global financial crisis. However, as in other OECD countries, the moderate increase in unemployment was largely attributed to labour hoarding. And the rapid recovery of the Baltic countries made it possible for Sweden to avoid a bank crisis.

Details

The Nordic Varieties of Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-778-0

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Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…

Abstract

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

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Article
Publication date: 30 April 2019

Serhan Cevik

With the global financial crisis, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced its own unraveling of macro-financial imbalances and thus presents an interesting case to…

Abstract

Purpose

With the global financial crisis, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced its own unraveling of macro-financial imbalances and thus presents an interesting case to analyze the underlying fragilities in federal governments. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evolution of fiscal policy in the UAE at consolidated and subnational levels in the run-up and after the crisis, and provide pertinent insights about the importance of policy coordination in other federal fiscal systems – and monetary unions, as brought to light by the recent developments in Europe.

Design/methodology/approach

In measuring the cyclicality of fiscal balances at the consolidated and emirate level in the UAE, this paper uses the non-hydrocarbon primary budget balance, excluding interest spending and hydrocarbon revenues, investment income of the sovereign wealth fund, scaled by non-hydrocarbon GDP. The cyclically adjusted primary balance is estimated by deducting cyclical components from the actual balance. It is important to correct for cyclical changes because the budget balance tends to vary endogenously according the state of the economy – deteriorating during a bust and improving in a boom. Furthermore, since hydrocarbon revenues are dependent on the erratic behavior of hydrocarbon prices, the cyclically adjusted non-hydrocarbon primary balance is computed, using the elasticity of non-hydrocarbon revenues and primary expenditures relative to non-hydrocarbon GDP, to assess whether fiscal policy exacerbates economic fluctuations in the UAE at the aggregate and emirate levels.

Findings

The empirical findings show that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the financial sector cycle, exacerbated the economic upswing, and thereby contributed to the build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities. The paper also sets out policy lessons to develop a rule-based fiscal framework that would help strengthen fiscal policy coordination between the various layers of government and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and a more equitable intergenerational distribution of wealth.

Originality/value

The lack of fiscal policy coordination among subnational governments complicates macro-economic management at the federal level. Since the UAE has a pegged exchange rate regime and consequently a limited scope to use monetary policy, the burden of macro-economic stabilization falls on fiscal policy. Accordingly, this paper shows that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the “financial accelerator” effect, exacerbated the economic cycle, and thereby contributed to the build-up of economic and financial vulnerabilities in the UAE.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Abstract

Details

Monetary Policy, Islamic Finance, and Islamic Corporate Governance: An International Overview
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-786-9

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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Mohamed Kadria and Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa

This chapter attempts to analyze mainly the interactions between the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) policy and performance in the conduct of economic policies

Abstract

This chapter attempts to analyze mainly the interactions between the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) policy and performance in the conduct of economic policies (fiscal and exchange rate) in emerging countries. More precisely, empirical studies conducted in this chapter aim to apprehend the feedback effect of this strategy of monetary policy on the budget deficit and volatility of exchange rate performance. This said, we consider the institutional framework as endogenous to IT and analyze the response of authorities to the adoption of this monetary regime. To do this, the retained methodological path in this chapter is an empirical way, based on the econometrics of panel data. First, our contribution to the existing literature is to evaluate the time-varying treatment effect of IT’s adoption on the budget deficit of emerging inflation targeters, using the propensity score matching approach. Our empirical analysis, conducted on a sample of 34 economies (13 IT and 21 non-IT economies) for the period from 1990 to 2010, show a significant impact of IT on the reduction of budget deficit in emerging countries having adopted this monetary policy framework. Therefore, we can say that the emerging government can benefit ex post and gradually from a decline in their public deficits. Retaining the same econometric approach and sample, we tried secondly to empirically examine whether the adoption of IT in emerging inflation targeters has been effectively translated by an increase in the nominal effective exchange rate volatility compared to non-IT countries. Our results show that this effect is decreasing and that this volatility is becoming less important after the shift to this monetary regime. We might suggest that this indirect and occasional intervention in the foreign exchange market can be made by fear of inflation rather than by fear of floating hence in most emerging countries that have adopted the IT strategy. Finally, we can say that our conclusions corroborate the literature of disciplining effects of IT regime on fiscal policy performance as well as the two controversial effects of IT on the nominal effective exchange rate volatility.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Javed Ahmad Bhat and Naresh Kumar Sharma

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic…

Abstract

Purpose

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, trade-openness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI).

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

Findings

The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance.

Practical implications

These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have two-fold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

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Abstract

Details

Economic Areas Under Financial Stability
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-841-9

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Abstract

Details

Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2003

Mohammad Ziaul Hoque

Outlines the massive loan default problems faced by the Bangladesh banking industry and discusses the importance of consistent and adequate public policy in reducing them…

Abstract

Outlines the massive loan default problems faced by the Bangladesh banking industry and discusses the importance of consistent and adequate public policy in reducing them. Critically reviews the government’s industrial, fiscal, monetary and tariff policies since independence in 1971, referring to relevant research; and relates them to the loan repayment performance of industrial borrowers. Castigates its excessive bureaucratic controls, lack of co‐ordination or consistency and over‐supply of credit; and its failure to recognize entrepreneurs’ general lack of experience. Puts at least part of the blame for industrial loan defaults down to “flawed” policies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 29 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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