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1 – 10 of over 99000Bilgehan Tekin and Nemer Badwan
The purpose of this study is to examine the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound, Johansen co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) causality tests. Political developments, pandemics, conflicts between countries, trade chains and general economic and financial problems that have frequently occurred worldwide in recent years have significantly affected the Turkish economy as well as all other countries. Türkiye's economy is intricately linked with global financial markets, and understanding the dynamics between domestic macroeconomic variables and external financial indicators can provide insights into the country's economic resilience and vulnerabilities to external shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
Two distinct models are used in the analysis, with the Borsa Istanbul 100 (BIST100) Index and the Real Sector Confidence (RSC) Index serving as the dependent variables. This study examines the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the ARDL bound, Johansen cointegration and VECM causality tests. The study uses monthly data spanning from December 31, 2002, to July 29, 2022, offering a comprehensive perspective on the dynamics of the Turkish economy.
Findings
The findings reveal significant long-run relationships between the BIST100 and the exchange rate, imports and exports. Short-run dynamics indicate the importance of changes in these variables, as well as NPLs and RSC, in affecting the BIST 100. The model captures the impact of economic indicators such as imports, NPLs and exports on RSC. In addition, it underscores a long-run equilibrium relationship, suggesting a responsive RSC to deviations. There is a strong positive relationship between BIST100 and the RSC. Causality tests reveal temporal relationships and causal links, with evidence of bidirectional causality for some variables, providing comprehensive insights into the short-term dynamics and adjustment mechanisms influencing RSC in the Turkish economic context.
Practical implications
Amidst global economic uncertainties and fluctuations, particularly in emerging markets such as Türkiye, understanding the relationships between financial market indicators and macroeconomic variables may help policymakers formulate effective monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, promoting sustainable growth and mitigating financial risks. In addition, these insights have practical implications for investors, regulators and other financial market participants seeking to make informed decisions in an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy.
Originality/value
This study uniquely examines a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial indicators specific to Türkiye, including both traditional and nontraditional factors. This study also offers unprecedented insights into the unique characteristics and dynamics of the Turkish economy and provides valuable insights for businesses, investors and policymakers to consider Türkiye’s economic environment more effectively.
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This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such efficiency.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs fixed effects statistical approach in its examination of how specific features of financial markets influence variability in its efficiency.
Findings
This study finds that individual IMF defined economic regions tend to exhibits significantly different financial market efficiency characteristics given specific market features and conditions. In regional level comparative analysis (e.g. Europe, Africa, Asia–Pacific etc.) this study finds that incidence of financial market uncertainty is the dominant condition with significant effect on financial market efficiency across all the IMF regions. In the global level analysis, empirical estimates presented suggest that financial market uncertainty, financial institutional depth and financial institutional efficiency tend to have significant positive influence on global financial market efficiency all things being equal. In the same analysis however, this study finds that financial market and financial institutional access growth has significant negative impact on financial market efficiency.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of this study compared to related ones found in the literature stems from its focus on financial market efficiency at the global, and IMF defined regional block level instead of on a specific economy as often found in the literature. Additionally, in contrast to other related studies, this study further examines the role of global financial market uncertainty in its financial market efficiency analysis. Financial market uncertainty variable may be unique to this study because the variable is derived through an econometric process from a base variable.
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Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong
The study examines the impact of macroeconomic risk and volatility associated with key macroeconomic indicators on financial market uncertainty; and the extent to which governance…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the impact of macroeconomic risk and volatility associated with key macroeconomic indicators on financial market uncertainty; and the extent to which governance and institutional structures moderate such relationships.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs data from 33 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period between 1996 and 2019. Variable derivation techniques such as the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) for deriving volatility data, and the principal component analysis (PCA) for index construction were employed. The data is examined using the two-step system generalized method of moments (TS-SGMM) technique.
Findings
Empirical results suggest that macroeconomic risk and exchange rate volatility heighten financial market uncertainty among economies in the sub-region. Further empirical estimates show that institutional quality and government effectiveness have a negative moderating effect on the nexus between macroeconomic risk, inflation uncertainty, GDP growth, exchange rate, and financial market uncertainty.
Practical implications
The key macroeconomic conditions with the propensity to foment financial market uncertainty are worth monitoring with adequate buffers to mitigate their impacts on the financial market.
Originality/value
Compared to related studies, this study focuses on uncertainty associated with financial markets among emerging economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) instead of the performance of the financial markets or specific financial market indicators such as the stock market; and the extent to which a host of macroeconomic conditions influence such uncertainty. For instance, Abaidoo and Agyapong (2023) focused on the impact of macroeconomic indicators or conditions on the performance of the financial market and the efficiency of financial institutions respectively instead of the uncertainty or risk associated with the financial market as pursued in the current study. This differing approach is pursued with the goal of proffering appropriate strategies for policy makers towards assuaging the financial market risk (uncertainty) due to macroeconomic dynamics. We further examine how the various fundamental relationships may be moderated by effective governance and institutional quality.
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Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong
The study evaluates the role of institutional framework and macroeconomic instability on financial market development among emerging economies.
Abstract
Purpose
The study evaluates the role of institutional framework and macroeconomic instability on financial market development among emerging economies.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses panel data compiled from 32 countries from the sub-region of Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), covering the period starting from 1996 to 2019. Empirical analyses were carried out using the two-step system generalized method of moments (TS-GMM) statistical framework.
Findings
Reviewed results suggest that institutional quality, effective governance and corruption control have a significant positive impact on financial market development among economies in the sub-region. Further empirical estimates show that macroeconomic risk and macroeconomic uncertainty have significant adverse effects on financial market development. Additionally, reported empirical estimates suggest that an improved institutional framework has the potential to lessen the adverse effect of macroeconomic instability on financial market development among economies in the sub-region.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of this empirical inquiry compared to related studies in the present literature stems from the fact that studies employing similar empirical approaches on the subject matter for economies in the sub-region are rare. Additionally, the analysis pursued in this study employs critical variables whose impact on financial market performance in the sub-region has not been examined per our review. These variables include indexes such as macroeconomic risk and institutional quality, which are unique to this study based on their construction; these indexes are generated using a principal component analysis procedure with different underlying variables compared to what may be found in the literature.
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Fatima Ruhani and Mohd Zukime Mat Junoh
This study aims to find the relationship of stock market returns and selected financial market variables (market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings multiples…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to find the relationship of stock market returns and selected financial market variables (market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings multiples, dividend yield and trading volume) of Malaysia grounded by the arbitrage pricing theories.
Design/methodology/approach
This study empirically examines the effects of selected financial market variables on stock market returns using 64 companies listed in Malaysia's stock market with data spanning from 2005 to 2018. A systematic empirical study based on the Generalized Method of Moments following Arellano and Bond (1991) has been taken to estimate the effect.
Findings
The regression result of the financial market variables and stock market return shows that, except for trading volume, all selected financial market variables play significant roles in the stock market returns. Furthermore, market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, dividend yield and trading volume have a positive impact on stock market returns.
Research limitations/implications
The outcome of this study can contribute by helping domestic and global investors devise strategies to minimize their risks. Also, policy administrators can use the outcomes of this study to inform the micro- and macro-level policy formulation.
Originality/value
This study will contribute to filling the gap in knowledge concerning the new release of factors affecting the stock market returns of Malaysia.
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Since the late 1990s, developing countries have been encouraged by international financial organisations to adopt a shareholder primacy corporate governance model. It was…
Abstract
Purpose
Since the late 1990s, developing countries have been encouraged by international financial organisations to adopt a shareholder primacy corporate governance model. It was anticipated that in an increasingly globalised financial market, countries which introduced corporate governance practices that favour investors would gain a comparative advantage and attract more capital leading to financial market growth. This paper aims to empirically test this hypothesis.
Design/methodology/approach
The present research paper quantitatively investigates whether adopting shareholder primacy corporate governance norms has had any impact on the growth of the financial market, focusing on nineteen developing countries between 1995 and 2014. Time series indices are prepared for corporate governance regulations, financial market development along with three control indices. Then a lagged multilevel regression between these indices is used to investigate the strength of causality between the adoption of pro-shareholder corporate governance and the growth of the financial market.
Findings
The research paper finds that shifting towards a shareholder primacy model in corporate governance has a very small effect on growth of financial market in developing countries. Overall the financial, economic and technological controls have much more impact on the growth of financial markets.
Originality/value
This paper conclusively ends the discussion as to whether change in corporate governance has any impact on financial market growth of a country. The papers uses Bayesian econometric model. The paper thus signals the end of LLSV led question as to whether law can affect finance.
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Gatot Soepriyanto, Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz and Rangga Handika
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential contagion of Bitcoin on financial markets and sheds light on the complex interplay between technological…
Abstract
Purpose
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential contagion of Bitcoin on financial markets and sheds light on the complex interplay between technological advancements, accounting regulatory and financial market stability.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a multi-faceted approach to analyze the impact of BTC systemic risk, technological factors and regulatory variables on Asia–Pacific financial markets. Initially, a single-index model is used to estimate the systematic risk of BTC to financial markets. The study then uses ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess the potential impact of systemic risk, technological factors and regulatory variables on financial markets. To further control for time-varying factors common to all countries, a fixed effect (FE) panel data analysis is implemented. Additionally, a multinomial logistic regression model is utilized to evaluate the presence of contagion.
Findings
Results indicate that Bitcoin's systemic risk to the Asia–Pacific financial markets is relatively weak. Furthermore, technological advancements and international accounting standard adoption appear to indirectly stabilize these markets. The degree of contagion is also found to be stronger in foreign currencies (FX) than in stock index (INDEX) markets.
Research limitations/implications
This study has several limitations that should be considered when interpreting the study findings. First, the definition of financial contagion is not universally accepted, and the study results are based on the specific definition and methodology. Second, the matching of daily financial market and BTC data with annual technological and regulatory variable data may have limited the strength of the study findings. However, the authors’ use of both parametric and nonparametric methods provides insights that may inspire further research into cryptocurrency markets and financial contagions.
Practical implications
Based on the authors analysis, they suggest that financial market regulators prioritize the development and adoption of new technologies and international accounting standard practices, rather than focusing solely on the potential risks associated with cryptocurrencies. While a cryptocurrency crash could harm individual investors, it is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the overall financial system.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors knowledge, they have not found an asset pricing approach to assess a possible contagion. The authors have developed a new method to evaluate whether there is a contagion from BTC to financial markets. A simple but intuitive asset pricing method to evaluate a systematic risk from a factor is a single index model. The single index model has been extensively used in stock markets but has not been used to evaluate the systemic risk potentials of cryptocurrencies. The authors followed Morck et al. (2000) and Durnev et al. (2004) to assess whether there is a systemic risk from BTC to financial markets. If the BTC possesses a systematic risk, the explanatory power of the BTC index model should be high. Therefore, the first implied contribution is to re-evaluate the findings from Aslanidis et al. (2019), Dahir et al. (2019) and Handika et al. (2019), using a different method.
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This chapter aims at examining financial distress issue by designing a comprehensive model to explain and predict financial distress in Egypt. This comprehensive model…
Abstract
This chapter aims at examining financial distress issue by designing a comprehensive model to explain and predict financial distress in Egypt. This comprehensive model incorporates accounting ratios, market-based ratios and macroeconomic ratios. The sample of the existing research includes all the listed firms in two main sectors: basic resources and chemicals. Using logistic regression model, the results showed that adding market ratios and macroeconomic ratios enhances the predictability of the model and accounting information are not sufficient to explain financial distress.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financial market development on corporate financing of emerging market firms to ascertain whether or not interactions in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financial market development on corporate financing of emerging market firms to ascertain whether or not interactions in the financial market has any impact on the available choice of financing of firms.
Design/methodology/approach
Panel data covering the period 1990‐2006 for 34 emerging market economies were analyzed within the framework of Pesaran's dynamic fixed effect model and the pooled mean group estimator to capture the short‐ and long‐run effects of the covariates on the endogenous variables.
Findings
The findings of the research indicate significantly that the direction and magnitude of the impact of financial market development and macroeconomic variables on capital structure vary with the maturities of the security issue. It is also documented that firm level variables such as profitability, investment opportunity, asset tangibility and risk are equally important in predicting firms' capital structure decisions. The findings also indicate that economy wide variables such as gross domestic product per capita are significant predictors of financing choices of firms. The results of the study generally support existing literature on the impact of financial market development, macroeconomic variables and certain firm level factors on capital structure.
Originality/value
The paper considers unique data from emerging market economies over a 17‐year period.
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Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh
The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic policy…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic policy initiatives (an extended version of Singh and Singh, 2017a).
Design/methodology/approach
Initially, the study develops financial stress indices for the respective BRIC financial markets. Later, it captures linkages among the said US-BRIC indices by using Johansen cointegration, vector autoregression/vector error correction models (VECM), generalized impulse response functions, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality, variance decomposition analyses and bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model under constant conditional correlation framework, in general. Markov regime switching and efficient causality tests proposed by Hill (2007) are also used.
Findings
Overall, there are both short-run and long-run dynamic interactions observed between the US and Indian financial stress indices. For rest of the markets, only short-run interactions are found to be in existence. The time-varying co-movement coefficients report financial contagion impact of the US financial crisis on Russian and Indian financial systems only. Contrary to this, Brazilian and Chinese financial systems are largely exhibiting interdependence with the US financial system. Efficient causality tests report indirect impact of the Russian financial system on Brazilian via auxiliary Indian financial system.
Originality/value
The present study is the first of its kind capturing linkages among the US-BRIC financial stress indices by using diverse econometric models. The results support different market participants and policymakers in understanding effectiveness and implementation of economic policies while considering their cross-market interactions as well.
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