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Two effects simultaneously shape the future soybean meal (SBM) demand in China: the income effect on meat consumption and the transition effect due to commercial feed usage in animal production. The income effect has been studied intensively in previous research and results in rapidly growing animal product consumption. The commercial feed transition effect, however, is not well understood. The accurate forecast of SBM demand requires an integration of both effects. This study aims to contribute to the commodity forecast literature: by estimating the non-commercial to commercial feed effect and then comparing to the income effect.

This research addresses the gap in the literature by considering the diffusion path of commercial feeding technology when forecasting China's future SBM demand. The paper addresses the following five objectives to accomplish this goal. Objective 1: estimate income elasticity of demand for meat; Objective 2: estimate the current commercial feeding gap; Objective 3: analyze the reasons for low SBM feeding ratios; Objective 4: estimate future SBM feeding ratios; Objective 5: forecast future soybean demand in China.

China needs 33 years from 2009 to achieve the SBM feeding ratio of 98 percent. The difference in future derived demand for SBM mainly comes from the transition effect of animal production industry in China. The income effect only contributes on average 2.1 percent of the theoretical SBM consumption quantity over the next 20 years. The feeding technology diffusion effect, however, causes an additional 3.6 percent annual compound growth rate on the demand increase for SBM over the same time periods. The livestock industry's transition effect is roughly equivalent to 1.5 times the income effect.

Policy makers, industry managers, and analysts will now have not only a more accurate estimate of future SBM demand, but also a better understanding of the structural components of that estimation. In particular, the role of commercial feed adoption is explicitly estimated.

This research is the first to estimate the effect of the shift from non-commercial to commercial feeding systems on overall SBM demand. The results show that not accounting for the diffusion of new commercial feeding technology creates under the estimates of future SBM demand.

The purpose of this paper is to examine investments in selected Feed the Future countries in Africa.

The authors examine three investments in Feed the Future countries (e.g. Rwanda and Uganda) in the context of non-traded goods, exports and imports. These investments include research and development in Ugandan cassava production, a value chain intervention in the coffee market channel in Rwanda and a program to increase the use of fertilizer for maize production in Rwanda. The authors also stress the importance of distributional impacts in terms of policymaking.

The results show that while there can be net gains from each investment discussed, the distributional effects of each are very different.

The findings will be useful for the development community and agribusiness policymaking.

Different livestock production systems contribute to globally Greenhouse gas emission (GHG) emission differently. The aim of this paper is to understand variation in emission in different production systems and it is also important for developing mitigation interventions that work for a specific production system.

In this study, the authors used the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment interactive model (GLEAM-i) to estimate the GHG emission and emission intensity and tested the effectiveness of mitigation strategies from 180 farms under three production systems in northern Ethiopia, namely, pastoral, mixed and urban production systems.

Production systems varied in terms of herd composition, livestock productivity, livestock reproductive parameters and manure management systems, which resulted in difference in total GHG emission. Methane (82.77%) was the largest contributor followed by carbon dioxide (13.40%) and nitrous oxide (3.83%). While both total carbon dioxide and methane were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in urban production system than the other systems emission intensities of cow’s milk and goat and sheep’s meat were lower in urban systems. Improvement in feed, manure management and herd parameters resulted in reduction of total GHG emission by 30, 29 and 21% in pastoral, mixed and urban production systems, respectively.

This study is a first time comparison of the GHG emission production by various production systems in northern Ethiopia. Moreover, it uses the GLEAM-i program for the first time in the ex ante settings for measuring and comparing emissions as well as for developing mitigation scenarios. By doing so, it provides information on the various livestock production system properties that contribute to the increase or decrease in GHG emission and helps in developing guidelines for low emission livestock production systems.

This study aims to investigate the determinants of the food security status of participants and non-participants of livestock extension services living under similar socioeconomic conditions as livestock farming households in the Feed the Future zone of Bangladesh.

Cross-sectional data of 906 farm-households extracted from a total of 2064 from the Feed the Future representative Bangladesh Integrated Households Survey 2018 were used. A triple hurdle model combined with a structural equation model were used to analyze the data. The causal relationship between food security status, livestock extension services, technology adoption and women's empowerment was investigated by estimating structural equation modeling with second-order latent factors.

The results indicate that livestock extension services have increased livestock technology adoption and have a positively significant (p < 0.01) relationship with household wealth, food security, welfare and women's empowerment.

The results suggest that livestock extension services have an impact on new technology adoption and enhancing women's empowerment; thus, the services should be widely made available in the region.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2021-0647.

This paper provides one of the first and most detailed accounts of the large modern dairy farms that are emerging in the dairy sector in India. Qualitative interviews are used to understand how these farms differ from their traditional smallholder counterparts and how well integrated they are into the value chains.

Snowball sampling was used to identify large farmers. In total, 49 in-depth interviews were conducted with large commercial modern farms in Punjab. A detailed description of the main characteristics of these modern dairy farms is provided. Data from previous studies conducted in Punjab is used to compare the new farms with traditional smallholder farms.

The modern dairy farms are much more advanced in their use of technology compared to their traditional counterparts. These large commercial modern farms are very well integrated into the value chains. They often, but not exclusively, sell milk to formal supply chains, sometimes on a contractual basis.

Most of the literature on the Indian dairy sector focuses on smallholders. However, understanding and acknowledging the emergence of modern dairy farms is very important in understanding the development of value chains not only in the dairy sector in India, but in domestic food sectors in developing countries in general. This qualitative data analysis is a necessary first step if more large-scale representative information is to be collected in the future.

As one of its major strategies, China has made a new plan to further expand High Standard Farmland (HSF) to all permanent basic farmland (80% of total farmland) for grain security over the next decade. Yet, what will be the impact of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems? The paper aims to systematically evaluate the multiple effects (food security, economy, nutrition and environment) of expanding HSF construction under the context of the “Big Food vision” using an interdisciplinary model.

An interdisciplinary model – AgriFood Systems Model, which links the China CGE model to diet and carbon emission modules, is applied to assess the multiple effects of HSF construction on agrifood systems, such as food security and economic development, residents’ diet quality and carbon emissions. Several policy scenarios are designed to capture these effects of the past HSF investment based on counterfactual analysis and compare the effects of HSF future investment at the national level under the conditions of different land use policies – restricting to grain crops or allowing diversification (like vegetables, and fruit).

The investments in HSF offer a promising solution for addressing the challenges of food and nutrition security, economic development and environmental sustainability. Without HSF construction, grain production and self-sufficiency would decline significantly, while the agricultural and agrifood systems’ GDP would decrease. The future investment in the HSF construction will further increase both grain production and GDP, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions. Compared with the policy of limiting HSF to planting grains, diversified planting can provide a more profitable economic return, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions.

This study contributes to better informing the impact of land infrastructure expanding investment on the agrifood systems from multiple dimensions based on an interdisciplinary model. We suggest that the government consider applying diversified planting in the future HSF investment to meet nutritional and health demands, increase household income and reduce carbon emissions.

This chapter explores policy implications of deliberately targeted interventions aimed at closing the gap between nutrition baseline trends and desirable levels of nutrition intake according to World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations guidelines. Special attention is paid to the implications for those at the bottom of the nutrition achievement range (Bottom Billion).

We conduct a forward looking evaluation with a global multimarket model for agriculture within the context of key drivers of change. We observe the effect of interventions on nutrition intake for the most food-insecure regions as transmitted through food prices, changes in country-level food trade, and other market-driven outcomes. We demonstrate the nutrition-enhancing effects that occur when animal-sourced protein consumption, livestock production, and livestock feed demand decrease in developed countries. We also show the effect of a significant growth in agricultural productivity and household incomes.

Our analysis shows that the most effective intervention boosts household income to facilitate adequate intake of food and key nutrients. Diet changes have notable effects but are harder to implement on a practical level. Enhancing agricultural productivity (especially in regions with historically low yields) is also effective in improving nutrition outcomes.

Short of social protection and direct assistance programs, the ability of policy to effect short-term changes in nutritional status is limited. We highlight the effectiveness of pathways that promote longer-term socioeconomic growth and productivity gains as ways of improving the nutrition and health status of consumers.

“It is generally accepted that the food industry must be scientifically based to cope with the problems, particularly of public health, which arise as new processes of growing, manufacturing, packaging and preserving food depart even further from traditional ways.”