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This study aims to examine the illicit capital movement through trade misinvoicing in Burundi, at disaggregated levels by major trading partners and by major export and import commodities.

Trade misinvoicing is estimated by comparing the trade values declared by Burundi with those declared by trading partners in a bilateral international transaction, after adjusting for the cost of freight and insurance. Disaggregated trade misinvoicing by major trading partners is computed using the Direction of Trade Statistics database of the International Monetary Fund over the period 1970–2019. Disaggregated trade misinvoicing by major trading commodities is computed using the UN-COMTRADE database over the period 1993–2019.

Exports of Burundi to most of its major trading partners are found to be underinvoiced. The top destinations for export underinvoicing are United Arab Emirates, Belgium and Germany. However, exports to UK and Switzerland are found to be overinvoiced. The major export commodities considered, coffee and gold, are found to be affected by trade misinvoicing to a great extent. On the import side, the estimation results indicate that imports of Burundi from its major trading partners are in general overinvoiced. High import overinvoicing is observed in the trade with Saudi Arabia, China and Japan. At commodity level, for the top 6 commodities considered, imports were to a great extent found to be overinvoiced. Cases of illicit capital outflows and inflows through trade misinvoicing are highlighted.

Some policy implications are drawn from this study. First, in collaboration with its development partners, the Government of Burundi should put in place measures to reduce the trade misinvoicing phenomenon, which undermines poverty reduction efforts. The study has shown which trade partners are involved and which commodities are mostly affected. Policy efforts could then be focused in that regard. Investigations at the company and transaction levels can be made to identify the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing. Second, more effort is needed in ensuring systematic and transparent reporting of international trade transactions. To fight trade misinvoicing, transparency in international trade is key, through coordinated enforcement of reporting rules.

Previous studies analyzed the problem of trade misinvoicing at an aggregated level. However, this leaves out essential information on trading partners involved in the phenomenon as well as trading commodities affected. This study investigates trade misinvoicing at disaggregated levels, at product level and by trading partner.

This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model between the government, the core enterprises of film copyright export and imports and uses the system dynamics model to simulate and find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, aiming to promote the development of foreign trade of film copyright and innovation and development of the film industry so as to improve the overall social benefits of the film industry and provide policy enlightenment for enhancing the import power of foreign core enterprises to introduce domestic film copyrights.

In this paper, a tripartite evolutionary game model of the government, the core enterprises of film copyright export and imports is constructed, the evolution process of cooperation strategy is derived, the impact of innovation income coefficient, mixed incentive policy and single incentive policy on the evolution results is analyzed, and the system dynamic model is used to simulate to find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, so as to provide reference for the government’s dynamic incentive decision-making.

The results show that export-oriented core firms are more sensitive to mixed incentives, while import-oriented core firms respond more quickly to single incentives. The large innovation income coefficient has a negative impact on the willingness of import-oriented core enterprises to cooperate. The study proposes measures to increase the willingness of core companies to participate.

Due to the fact that numerical simulation is based on simulation, there may be a certain gap between it and the actual situation. Therefore, it is necessary to further use actual data to conduct empirical analysis on the theoretical model.

This article mainly focuses on analyzing the impact of strategy choices and related parameters of various entities on the incentive mechanism and studying the foreign trade cooperation strategies of film copyright export enterprises under policy support from a theoretical model perspective. Furthermore, research has proven that in order to effectively enhance the willingness of foreign import core enterprises to participate in the foreign trade of domestic film copyrights, the government needs to coordinate the use of single incentive policies and mixed incentive policies. This study provides a major contribution for policymaker to develop film copyright import and export trade.

Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward management countermeasures to further improve the development of the film copyright import and export trade. The first is to enrich government incentive methods and stimulate the vitality of film copyright and foreign trade market entities. The second is to guide the core enterprises of film copyright export to increase investment in innovation and stimulate the endogenous driving force of industrial development. Finally, lengthen the foreign trade industry chain of film copyright and increase the income of film derivatives.

Firstly, this paper applies the research methods of evolutionary game and system dynamics simulation to the field of foreign trade research on film copyright and expands the research perspectives and methods of the film industry. Secondly, by analyzing the “cost-benefit incentive” relationship of the evolutionary game of government export-oriented core enterprises and importing core enterprises, an evolutionary game model is constructed, the quantitative point of tripartite interest decision-making is solved and the research object of the evolutionary game method is expanded. Finally, the system dynamics model is used to simulate and find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, so as to provide reference for the government’s dynamic incentive decision-making.

A better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticity of import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU's demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.

This study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigate demand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU's. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers were calculated and compared.

The empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, the investigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price of Egyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.

Due to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data on quantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for considering seasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behavior of EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.

The study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze import demand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS, Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitability and performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.

The purpose of this study is to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports.

Based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports, this study empirically examines the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports based on China’s customs export data from 2011 to 2016.

The relevant findings are threefold. (1) The digital economy significantly improves the binary margin of agricultural exports, and its effect on the intensive margin is stronger than that on the expansive margin. After the expansive margin is subdivided, the effects on the three sub-variables of the expansive margin are in the following order: old products exported to new markets > new products exported to old markets > new products exported to new markets. (2) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy has a stronger role in promoting the binary margin of exports for enterprises in the eastern region, high-income countries as the destination of exports and state-owned enterprises. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy promotes the binary margin of agricultural exports by reducing trade costs and intensifying market competition.

First, in terms of research perspective, although there are some studies on the impact of the digital economy on export trade in existing literature, the research objects mainly focus on manufacturing enterprises. In fact, agricultural trade is susceptible to natural conditions and seasonal factors, and countries may impose more SPS measures and TBT measures on agricultural trade due to risk considerations. The relationship between the digital economy and agricultural trade also has its own characteristics, but there are few research studies in this area. At present, only Liu and Gao (2022), based on the data of total imports and exports of different agricultural products from 2004 to 2018, have established a vector auto-regressive model to empirically analyse the heterogeneous dynamic impact of the digital economy on the trade volume of agricultural products. In addition, Ma and Guo (2023) conducted an empirical test on the total effect, regional heterogeneity and threshold effect of the digital economy on agricultural export trade based on China’s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Therefore, under the new circumstances of continuous integration of digital technology and agriculture, this study interprets the impact effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural exports from the perspective of the digital economy, providing new research perspectives and approaches for promoting the growth of agricultural exports. Second, in terms of theoretical analysis, the above studies have not been fully analysed in terms of the specific mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on agricultural exports. Based on the positive and negative characteristics of agricultural trade, this study introduces two kinds of roles into the theoretical analysis framework to comprehensively determine the trade impact effect of the digital economy. Third, in terms of research design, this study empirically examines the impact of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural products, passing a series of robustness tests and investigating the mediating roles of trade cost and market competition effects, producing an empirical basis for China to leverage the digital economy to promote the binary margin of agricultural exports.

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) is understood as the world's largest trading bloc given its contribution to the world output (30%). The mega trade bloc brings together 15 countries of East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers in goods and services trade. The study suggests the importance of sector specific reforms for Malaysia to strengthen domestic capability.

The analytical framework constructs upon the partial equilibrium analysis and uses WITS SMART simulations.

The study finds that Malaysia's elimination of tariffs under the RCEP will cause a surge in imports from developed member countries of RCEP like Australia, South Korea and Japan. The study also finds a trade diversion in countries such as India. The empirical results establishes that RCEP would further strengthen intra-ASEAN trade.

The study explores select sectors of the manufacturing industry in Malaysia.

The implementation of RCEP would impact the manufacturing sector immensely, especially in sectors like electrical machinery and equipment and inorganic chemicals, which are two of the major trading commodities of the Malaysian economy.

Any trade agreement has a larger impact on the society. It may raise income, boost the consumer preferences and create or erode consumer welfare. The study reports the consumer welfare effect of the implementation of RCEP in Malaysia.

The study is the first attempt to do a partial equilibrium analysis for the electrical machinery and equipment sector and inorganic chemicals sector of Malaysia using both aggregated and disaggregated data at HS two-digit and HS six-digit level.

Natural disasters profoundly influence agricultural trade sustainability. This study investigates the effects of natural disasters on agricultural production imports in China within 2002 and 2018. This exploration estimates the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations.

This investigation uses Probit, Logit, Cloglog and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models.

The results confirm the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations in China. According to the findings, natural disasters in trading partners heighten the risk to the agricultural imports. This risk raises, if disasters damage overall agricultural yield or transportation infrastructure. Moreover, governments’ effective response or diplomatic ties with China mitigate the risk. Finally, the effect of disasters varies by the developmental status of the country involved, with events in developed nations posing a greater risk to China’s imports than those in developing nations.

China should devise an early warning system to protect its agricultural imports by using advanced technologies such as data analytics, remote sensing and artificial intelligence. In addition, it can leverage this system by improving its collaboration with trading partners, involvement in international forums and agreement for mutual support in crisis.

The present study provides evidence on export advantages of horticultural commodities based on competitiveness, trade balance and seasonality dimensions.

The study delineated horticultural commodities in terms of comparative advantage, examined temporal shifts in export advantages (mapping) and estimated seasonality. Product mapping was carried out using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). Seasonal advantages were examined through a graphical approach along with the objective tests, namely, modified QS-test (QS), Friedman-test (FT) and using a seasonal dummy.

Cucumbers/gherkins, onions, preserved vegetables, fresh grapes, shelled cashew nuts, guavas, mangoes, and spices emerged as the most favorable horticultural products. India has a strong seasonal advantage in dried onions, cucumber/gherkins, shelled cashew nut, dried capsicum, coriander, cumin, and turmeric. The untapped potential in horticulture can be addressed by handling the trade barriers effectively, particularly the sanitary and phytosanitary issues, affecting the exports. Proper policies must be enacted to facilitate the investment in advanced agricultural technologies and logistics to ensure the desired quality and cost effectiveness.

Commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is no holistic and recent study illustrating the horticulture export advantages covering a large number of commodities in the Indian context. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders for drawing useful policy implications.

South Asia is a region urgently seeking development, although it has failed in regional integration. It is the second least integrated region regarding the number of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and can thus be recognised as a missing bloc in the global multilateral system. This study aims to focus on South Asian FTAs and explores the problems of the inter-relations and compatibility between the systemic and regional trade systems.

The study proposes a framework to benchmark the compatibility of South Asian FTAs with WTO rules. Primary data from 2000 to 2020, including descriptive analyses of reports, legal text of the FTAs, official documents and factual presentations, have been collected and analysed through thematic analysis using the proposed framework.

The study finds that, although South Asian FTAs meet most of the WTO requirements, they are not progressing toward facilitating and promoting trade. Data from 2000 to 2020 show us that South Asian FTAs have not significantly impacted trade between themselves. The study argues that, although South Asian FTAs fulfil some benchmarks, they show only a lukewarm interest in contributing to the international trading system as building blocs. It is therefore recommended that the case of South Asian trade liberalisation must be understood contextually and be given careful and exclusive attention by the WTO.

As such, this study is the first to claim that South Asian FTAs are not fully compatible with the WTO rules. They remain a missing regional bloc in the multilateral system, rather than a building bloc or a stumbling bloc, delaying the region’s opportunity to develop as a region and within the larger system.