Search results

The purpose of this papers is to highlight the applicability of integrated simulation models for national development planning to different issues and contexts. Specifically, the authors describe one such model, the Millennium Institute’s T21 model, which is used to support planning in various countries, and explore in detail the case of Swaziland to demonstrate the model’s usefulness at different levels in the planning process.

Integrated sustainable development planning models using the system dynamics (SD) modeling method have been designed to help overcome these obstacles and support decision-makers in the assessment of alternative policies. Such models are laboratory replicas of the critical mechanisms driving development in a country while being grounded in the historical data available. They can be used to perform simulation-based policy experiments that are otherwise impossible in the real world.

The proposed approach has facilitated the reporting on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), as well as on the cross-sector long-term ex ante evaluation of the country’s “Economic Recovery Strategy” and a proposed “Fiscal Adjustment” policy. These assessments provided essential information for improving the quality of the decisions made. Such information cannot be obtained by the application of purely economic models or sectoral tools, that are not including the fundamental feedback structures that shape development in the long run and determine its sustainability.

The new generation of global long-term Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) covers a far broader range of issues and indicators than the MDGs. The T21-Swaziland model only offers a limited subset of such issues, and future research will focus on achievements and challenges in expanding its scope to encompass the SDGs.

The T21 model has become one of the fundamental planning instruments of the country, and it has been used to evaluate national planning documents and other suggested strategies with respect to whether they are sufficient for reaching the long-term goals. Such information is then used as a basis for revision of development plans and adoption or rejection of suggested policy packages.

The MDGs (and their expanded follow-up, the SDGs) have been important step toward better governance, as they quantify key indicators of development and thereby allow for an evaluation of the degree to which these quantified aspirations are actually achieved. In addition to such hind-sight evaluations, ex ante evaluations are equally important for improvement of the quality of the decisions made. The authors propose and test a tool to support such type of evaluation, supporting integrated planning and model-based governance.

The purpose of this paper is to emphasise the importance of resolving the disconnect between issues of quality, timing and uncertainty in climate projections and the need for swift, informed and appropriate climate change adaptation decisions.

The paper utilises results from a multi‐level study of adaptation policy conducted in early 2009 to assess the different approaches to climate change, the production of climate information, and its application at national and select sub‐national levels in Italy and Finland. Data were collected via a preliminary review of relevant documents as well as 23 interviews in Italy and 21 interviews in Finland conducted with climate change and environmental policy actors at each scale of administration.

The paper shows while the different extent and processes of climate research and their linkages to policy can be seen as determinants of the development of adaptation measures, the multi‐scalar adaptation decision‐making processes and the ways in which climate change and climate information are framed and used render climate research and its application a complex process.

The paper contributes further understanding of the linkages between science and policy with regards to adaptation, and the nature of science‐policy linkages in local decision‐making processes in particular. The findings are of importance to climate scientists and policy‐makers alike.

The purpose of this study is to examine the existence of greenwashing and sustainable development goal (SDG)-washing processes by comparing ex ante (SDG Compass) and ex post (SDG Compliance) indicators and investigating whether the limitations associated with these indicators encourage companies to engage in washing processes.

The authors use a sample of 1,154 companies included in the S&P Sustainability Yearbook (formerly the RobecoSAM Yearbook). The authors test for the presence of greenwashing by comparing ex ante and ex post indicators for each SDG, whereas to test for SDG-washing, the authors compare the two ex ante and ex post approaches considering the full set of SDGs.

The results show that there is no consistency between the two types of indicators to measure the level of SDG implementation in organisations. This lack of consistency may facilitate both greenwashing and SDG-washing processes, which is due to the design and limitations of these measurement tools.

Companies may choose those indicators that paint their commitment to the SDGs in the best light, but they may also select indicators based on the SDGs they want to report on. These two options would combine greenwashing and SDG-washing.

The shift towards improved standards and regulations for measuring SDG achievement is the result of several social factors such as investor scrutiny, regulatory reform, consumer awareness and increased corporate accountability.

Few previous studies have analysed in detail the interaction between greenwashing and SDG-washing. They focus on the use of ex ante or ex post indicators separately, with samples composed of local companies, and without considering the whole set of SDGs.

In the presence of “real effects” of disclosure in a production economy, this research aims to investigate the link between disclosure and cost of capital relating to different time periods: namely the post-disclosure cost of capital (the cost of capital subsequent to disclosure), the pre-disclosure cost of capital (the cost of capital for the period leading up to disclosure) and the overall cost of capital (the cost of capital across both periods). The author also extends the analysis to whether and how in the presence of a real effect of disclosure, investors' ex ante welfare might be affected.

This research is conducted via stylized models.

The author demonstrates that, first, in contrast to findings in a pure-exchange economy, in a production-based economy where disclosure affects firms' investment decisions, both the overall cost of capital and the investors' ex ante welfare can be affected by disclosure quality. As disclosure quality improves, the post-disclosure cost of capital may either increase or decrease, as may the pre-disclosure cost of capital. The change in the post-disclosure cost of capital is not fully offset by the change in the pre-disclosure cost of capital, and therefore the overall cost of capital can either increase or decrease. Second, a firm's profitability of existing and new production are critical factors in determining whether cost of capital increases or decreases with disclosure quality. The author characterizes conditions under which higher disclosure quality increases or decreases the disclosing firm's cost of capital over different time periods. Third, when disclosure affects interrelated firms' production decisions, the disclosing firm's overall cost of capital changes with disclosure quality, even when the marginal (unconditional) distribution of the disclosing firm's cash flow is not affected by the disclosure.

This research contributes to a largely unexplored but important area: the real effect of disclosure on the cost of capital.

Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. The aim of this paper is to study whether such ex ante effects differ according to ethnic origin.

The authors apply a method that relates self‐reported perceived treatment rates and job search behavioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or search intensity, to each other. German native workers are compared with migrants with a Turkish origin or Central and Eastern European (including Russian) background. Job search theory is used to derive theoretical predictions. The ex ante effect of the German active labor market program (ALMP) system is examined using the novel IZA Evaluation Data Set which includes self‐reported assessments of the variables of interest as well as an unusually detailed amount of information on behavior, attitudes and past outcomes.

It is found that the ex ante threat effect on the reservation wage and search effort varies considerably among the groups considered.

The study is the first to investigate whether migrants and natives react similarly to the expectation of participating in an ALMP, and whether migrants of different regions of origin react similarly or not.

The Equal Pay Act 1970 (which came into operation on 29 December 1975) provides for an “equality clause” to be written into all contracts of employment. S.1(2) (a) of the 1970 Act (which has been amended by the Sex Discrimination Act 1975) provides:

This article aims to investigate whether and how the application of European state aid rules to the public funding of public broadcasting organisations in Europe has advanced public broadcasting as a policy process and made it more adaptive to the challenges of the digital age.

The findings are based on a triangulation of literature study, document analysis and expert interviews (with over 50 stakeholders involved with the topic of state aid and public broadcasting).

The article consists of four main parts. Firstly, the issue of state aid and public broadcasting is contextualised within the heated discussions on the legitimacy of European intervention in a cultural policy domain such as broadcasting. Secondly, the analytical framework is presented. Thirdly, analysis of specific state aid cases follows. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are outlined. The article concludes that European state aid policy has furthered a public service media project in the EU member states.

The article fills a void in current fragmented and often overly descriptive or overly ideological assessments of the relevance of state aid policy for public service broadcasting.

The paper contributes to ongoing policy debates about the issue of state aid policy for public service broadcasting.

The article fills a void in current fragmented and often overly descriptive or overly ideological assessments of the relevance of state aid policy for public service broadcasting.

We develop a theoretical model of input use by agricultural producers who purchase crop insurance, and thus may engage in moral hazard. Through simulations, our findings show a combination of partial insurance coverage and partial monitoring of inputs may reduce substantially the problems associated with moral hazard. The minimum level of input use that must be required by regulation is determined to be substantially lower than the optimal or actual input level chosen by producers. Because the use of inputs for crop production occurs in many stages over the pre‐planting, planting, and growing seasons, only a minimal input requirement is needed. Thus, the cost of implementing such a regulation can be kept much lower than would be the case for a regulation of complete monitoring of input usage.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether proxies considered under ex ante uncertainty hold true under a fixed price mechanism structure. In particular, the study examines whether pre-initial public offering (IPO) financial performance, measured by Altman Z-score, can serve as a proxy for ex ante uncertainty or signalling in an IPO market where a fixed price mechanism is used to determine the offer price.

This study uses solely ex ante information available to prospective investors prior to the IPO to proxy for ex ante variables. It also applies a more sophisticated and robust approach using quantile regression (QR) technique in addition to ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Applying the QR technique allows the study to produce estimates for the conditional quantiles of the distribution of IPO initial returns and address the violations of basic assumptions of the standard OLS technique.

The results show that for ex ante variables, such as IPORISK, company size, the Altman Z-score measure of pre-IPO performance, audit quality and the technology industry, are significantly related to IPO initial returns. However, the relationship differs across the conditional quantiles of the distribution of IPO initial returns, which would not have been recognised using standard OLS. However, the sign of the coefficients shown by some of these variables contradicts the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis assumption, but they are found to have predictive power in explaining IPO initial returns. These findings reveal unique characteristics of the IPO process and investors in Malaysia. Most importantly, the Altman Z-score is found to be significant in the lower and upper quantiles, but insignificant around the median quantile, which implies that Altman Z-score is important for IPOs with low and high initial returns.

These findings suggest that theoretical explanations of the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis cannot be generalised across financial markets, particularly in the Malaysian IPO market where fixed price offerings are common, and investors are risk averse, whereby they avoid risky IPOs, and prefer to take a small amount of returns against high risks. In addition, the composition of the companies in the market is not as large as the developed markets. This implies that the share price of the IPO may be sensitive to other disclosures in the prospectus, market sentiments or financial news. This study recommends the need for more empirical evidence for this purpose by including other important proxies of ex ante uncertainty, such as the use of IPO proceeds and risk factors that are disclosed in the prospectus to test whether the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis holds true in Malaysia.

This study fulfils the need for finding an appropriate theory that better explains IPO initial returns in the Asian IPO market by focussing exclusively on the pre-IPO information available in the prospectus. It also sheds light on important selected pre-listing information.

This study examines the effect of dividend policy on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

We use the data of publicly listed non-financial firms from France and the ex ante measures of crash and jump probabilities (based on the Flexible Quadrants Copulas) to test our hypothesis during the period between 1997 and 2019.

Our results show that dividend payments are negatively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and positively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. Our results are robust across various sub-samples and across different proxies of dividend policy. Our findings also hold when we use ex-post measures of crash and jump probabilities.

Unlike prior literature, we use ex ante measures of crash and jump probabilities. The main advantage of this forward looking measure is that it allows for more flexibility by modeling the dependence between market returns and stock returns as functions of their actual state. Our measure is also consistent with the behavior of investors and market participants in a way that the market participants do not know the future outcome with certainty, but rather they are anticipating the future.