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Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2020

Can Dogan and John Can Topuz

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument.

Findings

The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs.

Research limitations/implications

This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates.

Practical implications

This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences.

Originality/value

This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1988

Anthony Clunies Ross

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…

273

Abstract

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 July 2019

Musa Alkali, Ibrahim Sipan and Muhammad Najib Razali

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical research covers a sample period of 17 years from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2017. The leverage effect of Abuja’s real estate residential price volatility is determined. Exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to determine the ARCH shock, GARCH persistence and the leverage effect of the volatility of residential prices in Abuja.

Findings

The research found that the volatility of real estate prices varies from one category of residential property to another. The leverage effect was found only in the price of two and three bedroom flats in Abuja.

Originality/value

The findings provide useful information on the volatility of real estate prices for real estate investors. The study has policy implications for the regulation of measures that gradually checkmate the patterns of volatility in the Nigerian real estate market. It also controls negative information (such as a fall of crude oil prices, high costs of building materials, inconsistency of macro-economic policies and insecurity and political uncertainty) which mainly raises the level of uncertainty in the market and exposes investors to risk.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Eric Kam and Mohammed Mohsin

The purpose of this paper is to derive the real implications of inflation targeting using optimizing models characterized by endogenous time preference.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to derive the real implications of inflation targeting using optimizing models characterized by endogenous time preference.

Design/methodology/approach

To ensure consistent consumption and savings behavior, the rate of time preference is modeled as an increasing function of real wealth.

Findings

The results are not uniform and depend on the methods for modeling money in the general equilibrium framework; money in the utility function (MIU) and cash‐in‐advance constraints (CIA). With MIU, time preference wealth effects link the monetary and real sectors by endogenizing real interest rate. Monetary growth raises steady state capital and consumption by the Tobin effect. However, if money is introduced through CIA constraints, inflation policies are sensitive to the structure of the constraint itself. If the constraint applies to consumption and capital purchases, monetary growth lowers the steady state demand for both commodities and reverses the Tobin effect. If the constraint applies only to consumption goods, the same monetary policy is superneutral. This time preference specification has important advantages. It is consistent with the literature that integrates reinforcing wealth effects into aggregative models using ad‐hoc consumption or savings functions. Allowing the rate of time preference to depend positively on real wealth implies that optimizing behavior, not ad‐hoc specification yields wealth effects that endogenize the real interest rate and generate a Tobin effect. This time preference specification provides optimizing foundations for modeling savings as a decreasing function of real wealth, which is empirically verifiable and consistent with empirical predictions of consumption as an increasing function of real wealth.

Originality/value

This paper demonstrates the different effects that monetary policy maintains on steady state capital, consumption and real balance holdings in economies characterized by an endogenous rate of time preference.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 33 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-260-4

Article
Publication date: 1 November 2006

Magda Kandil

Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.

3951

Abstract

Purpose

Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper outlines demand and supply channels determining the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal policies. The time‐series model is presented and an analysis of the difference in the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks within countries is presented. There then follows an investigation of the relevance of demand and supply conditions to the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks. The implications of asymmetry are contrasted across countries.

Findings

Fluctuations in real output growth, price inflation, wage inflation, and real wage growth vary with respect to anticipated and unanticipated shifts to the money supply, government spending, and the energy price. The asymmetric flexibility of prices appears a major factor in differentiating the expansionary and contractionary effects of fiscal and monetary shocks. Higher price inflation, relative to deflation, exacerbates output contraction, relative to expansion, in the face of monetary shocks. In contrast, larger price deflation, relative to inflation, moderates output contraction, relative to expansion in the face of government spending shocks. The growth of output and the real wage decreases, on average, in the face of monetary variability in many countries. Moreover, the growth of real output and the real wage increases, on average, in the face of government spending variability in many countries. Asymmetry differentiates the effects of monetary and government spending shocks within and across countries. The degree and direction of asymmetry provide a new dimension to differentiate between monetary and fiscal tools in the design of stabilization policies.

Originality/value

The paper's evidence sheds light on the validity of theoretical models explaining asymmetry in the effects of demand‐side stabilization policies. Moreover, the evidence should alert policy makers to the need to relax structural and institutional constraints to maximize the benefits of stabilization policies and minimize the adverse effects on economic variables.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2022

Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

The relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.

Abstract

Purpose

The relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is performed using a sample of 113 countries over the period 1985–2014, and the 2-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The analysis uses both the Theil index and Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.

Findings

The analysis shows that over the full sample, the real effective exchange rate appreciation induces a greater services export diversification. This outcome applies to high-income countries and developing countries. However, the positive effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration is lower in least developed countries than in other countries. Finally, the effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration in tax haven countries depends on the indicator of services export concentration, as this is positive for the Theil index and negative for the Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.

Research limitations/implications

These findings highlight the strong influence of real exchange policies on countries' path of services export diversification.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic is being addressed in the empirical literature for the first time.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2018

Max Schreder

This paper provides a quantitative review of the literature on the repercussions of idiosyncratic information on firms’ cost of equity (CoE) capital. In total, I review the…

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative review of the literature on the repercussions of idiosyncratic information on firms’ cost of equity (CoE) capital. In total, I review the results of 113 unique studies examining the CoE effects of information Quantity, Precision and Asymmetry. My results suggest that the association between firm-specific information and CoE is subject to moderate effects. First, the link between Quantity and CoE is moderated by disclosure types and country-level factors in that firms in comparatively weakly regulated countries tend to enjoy up to four times greater CoE benefits from more expansive disclosure—depending on the type of disclosure—than firms in strongly regulated markets. Second, a negative relationship between Precision and CoE is only significant in studies using non-accrual quality proxies for Precision and risk factor-based (RFB)/valuation model-based (VMB) proxies for CoE. Third, almost all VMB studies confirm the positive association between Asymmetry and CoE, but there is notable variation in the conclusions reached when ex post CoE measurers are used.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 July 2005

Timothy B. Folta

I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option…

Abstract

I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option heuristic. If we are to claim that the theory of real options illuminates managerial behavior, then as a field, we must converge on an understanding as to what constitutes a real option effect, and what does not. The discussion centers on hypothesis development, measurement issues, and research methodology.

Details

Research Methodology in Strategy and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-208-5

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