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We propose a new discrete-time model of returns in which jumps capture persistence in the conditional variance and higher-order moments. Jump arrival is governed by a heterogeneous Poisson process. The intensity is directed by a latent stochastic autoregressive process, while the jump-size distribution allows for conditional heteroskedasticity. Model evaluation focuses on the dynamics of the conditional distribution of returns using density and variance forecasts. Predictive likelihoods provide a period-by-period comparison of the performance of our heterogeneous jump model relative to conventional SV and GARCH models. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies on the importance of jumps, we utilize realized volatility to assess out-of-sample variance forecasts.

This research studies private information from extreme price movements or jumps. The authors calculate the private information using a reduced form model from the stochastic volatility jump process and use several statistical robustness tests as well as several frequencies to improve our consistency. This study reveals that private information is significant in explain the existence of jumps in capital markets in Southeast Asia, whereas macroeconomic events cannot explain them. The authors determine empirically that private information in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia are not persistent and its value gradually decreases when we use the lower frequency. Based on the Fama–Macbeth regression, this study shows that private information in the capital market has a strong positive relationship with individual returns in Indonesia’s capital market and Thailand’s capital market for all frequencies.

The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to financial and more generally time-series econometrics. In this chapter, we begin by surveying models of volatility, both discrete and continuous, and then we summarize some selected empirical findings from the literature. In particular, in the first sections of this chapter, we discuss important developments in volatility models, with focus on time-varying and stochastic volatility as well as nonparametric volatility estimation. The models discussed share the common feature that volatilities are unobserved and belong to the class of missing variables. We then provide empirical evidence on “small” and “large” jumps from the perspective of their contribution to overall realized variation, using high-frequency price return data on 25 stocks in the DOW 30. Our “small” and “large” jump variations are constructed at three truncation levels, using extant methodology of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006), Andersen, Bollerslev, and Diebold (2007), and Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a, 2009b, 2009c). Evidence of jumps is found in around 22.8% of the days during the 1993–2000 period, much higher than the corresponding figure of 9.4% during the 2001–2008 period. Although the overall role of jumps is lessening, the role of large jumps has not decreased, and indeed, the relative role of large jumps, as a proportion of overall jumps, has actually increased in the 2000s.

This study aims to better understand the effects of speeches as a valuable communication tool for central banks. It extends the analysis of the effects of public speeches on jumps to determine whether individual speakers matter partly because of their name, position or institution.

This study detects intraday jumps using a robust-to-jump volatility estimator that accounts for deterministic seasonality. As a result, this study removes spurious jumps that occur when volatility is high and consider the relatively small jumps that occur when volatility is low. After identifying jumps, this study examines their reactions to senior official speeches and macroeconomic news surrounding the US and European Union (EU) financial crises.

Despite having the most influential individual speakers, this study finds that the impact of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) is mitigated because the two institutions have a relatively small impact on currency jumps. This finding shows that the speaker’s name is more important than his or her institution affiliation. While the Federal Reserve Bank President and Chief Executive, as well as ECB board members, significantly reduce jump sizes, particularly during the EU crisis period, both the Fed Chairman and the ECB President increase the magnitude of the jump in both the US crisis and noncrisis periods, contributing to market instability.

The implications of the results include international portfolio management, currency derivatives pricing and hedging, risk management and market efficiency.

The findings contribute to a better understanding of the effects of senior official speech attributes on currency jumps in various economic states. The results raise questions about the speaker’s name, institution and position’s effectiveness in calming markets and reducing uncertainty.

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.

The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.

Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.

This paper aims to present the results of further investigating the Polimenis (2012) stochastic model, which aims to decompose the stock return evolution into positive and negative jumps, and a Brownian noise (white noise), by taking into account different noise levels. This paper provides a sensitivity analysis of the model (through the analysis of its parameters) and applies this analysis to Google and Yahoo returns during the periods 2006-2008 and 2008-2010, by means of the third central moment of Nasdaq index. Moreover, the paper studies the behavior of the calibrated jump sensitivities of a single stock as market skew changes. Finally, simulations are provided for the estimation of the jump betas coefficients, assuming that the jumps follow Gamma distributions.

In the present paper, the model proposed in Polimenis (2012) is considered and further investigated. The sensitivity of the parameters for the Google and Yahoo stock during 2006-2008 estimated by means of the third (central) moment of Nasdaq index is examined, and consequently, the calibration of the model to the returns is studied. The associated robustness is examined also for the period 2008-2010. A similar sensitivity analysis has been studied in Polimenis and Papantonis (2014), but unlike the latter reference, where the analysis is done while market skew is kept constant with an emphasis in jointly estimating jump sensitivities for many stocks, here, the authors study the behavior of the calibrated jump sensitivities of a single stock as market skew changes. Finally, simulations are taken place for the estimation of the jump betas coefficients, assuming that the jumps follow Gamma distributions.

A sensitivity analysis of the model proposed in Polimenis (2012) is illustrated above. In Section 2, the paper ascertains the sensitivity of the calibrated parameters related to Google and Yahoo returns, as it varies the third (central) market moment. The authors demonstrate the limits of the third moment of the stock and its mixed third moment with the market so as to get real solutions from (S1). In addition, the authors conclude that (S1) cannot have real solutions in the case where the stock return time series appears to have highly positive third moment, while the third moment of the market is significantly negative. Generally, the positive value of the third moment of the stock combined with the negative value of the third moment of the market can only be explained by assuming an adequate degree of asymmetry of the values of the beta coefficients. In such situations, the model may be expanded to include a correction for idiosyncratic third moment in the fourth equation of (S1). Finally, in Section 4, it is noticed that the distribution of the error estimation of the coefficients cannot be considered to be normal, and the variance of these errors increases as the variance of the noise increases.

As mentioned in the Findings, the paper demonstrates the limits of the third moment of the stock and its mixed third moment with the market so as to get real solutions from the main system of equations (S1). It is concluded that (S1) cannot have real solutions when the stock return time series appears to have highly positive third moment, while the third moment of the market is significantly negative. Generally, the positive value of the third moment of the stock combined with the negative value of the third moment of the market can only be explained by assuming an adequate degree of asymmetry of the values of the beta coefficients. In such situations, the model proposed should be expanded to include a correction for idiosyncratic third moment in the fourth equation of (S1). Finally, it is noticed that the distribution of the error estimation of the coefficients cannot be considered to be normal, and the variance of these errors increases as the variance of the noise increases.

The purpose of this paper is to experimentally and numerically investigate the interference characteristics between two ski-jump jets on the flip bucket in a large dam spillway when two floodgates are running.

The volume of fluid (VOF) method together with the Realizable k-ε turbulence model were used to predict the flow in two ski-jump jets and the free surface motion in a large dam spillway. The movements of the two gates were simulated using a dynamic mesh controlled by a User Defined Function (UDF). The simulations were run using the prototype dam as the field test to minimize errors due to scale effects. The simulation results are compared with field test observations.

The transient flow calculations, accurately predict the two gate discharges compared to field data with the predicted ski-jump jet interference flow pattern similar to the observed shapes. The transient simulations indicate that the main reason for the deflected nappe is the larger opening difference between the two gates as the buttress side gate closes. When both gates are running, the two ski-jump jets interfere in the flip bucket and raise the jet nappe to near the buttress to form a secondary flow on this jet nappe surface. As the gate continues to close, the nappe surface continues to rise and the surface secondary flow become stronger, which deflects the nappe over the side buttress.

A dynamic mesh is used to simulate the transient flow behavior of two prototype running gates. The transient flow simulation clarifies the hydraulics mechanism for how the two ski-jump jets interfere and deflect the nappe.

The purpose of this paper is to consider that the model of volatility characteristics is more reasonable and the description of volatility is more explanatory.

This paper analyzes the basic characteristics of market yield volatility based on the five-minute trading data of the Chinese CSI300 stock index futures from 2012 to 2017 by Hurst index and GPH test, A-J and J-O Jumping test and Realized-EGARCH model, respectively. The results show that the yield fluctuation rate of CSI300 stock index futures market has obvious non-linear characteristics including long memory, jumpy and asymmetry.

This paper finds that the LHAR-RV-CJ model has a better prediction effect on the volatility of CSI300 stock index futures. The research shows that CSI300 stock index futures market is heterogeneous, means that long-term investors are focused on long-term market fluctuations rather than short-term fluctuations; the influence of the short-term jumping component on the market volatility is limited, and the long jump has a greater negative influence on market fluctuation; the negative impact of long-period yield is limited to short-term market fluctuation, while, with the period extending, the negative influence of long-period impact is gradually increased.

This paper has research limitations in variable measurement and data selection.

This study is based on the high-frequency data or the application number of financial modeling analysis, especially in the study of asset price volatility. It makes full use of all kinds of information contained in high-frequency data, compared to low-frequency data such as day, weekly or monthly data. High-frequency data can be more accurate, better guide financial asset pricing and risk management, and result in effective configuration.

The existing research on the futures market volatility of high frequency data, mainly focus on single feature analysis, and the comprehensive comparative analysis on the volatility characteristics of study is less, at the same time in setting up the model for the forecast of volatility, based on the model research on the basic characteristics is less, so the construction of a model is relatively subjective, in this paper, considering the fluctuation characteristics of the model is more reasonable, characterization of volatility will also be more explanatory power. The difference between this paper and the existing literature lies in that this paper establishes a prediction model based on the basic characteristics of market return volatility, and conducts a description and prediction study on volatility.

The purpose of this paper is to solve the optimal dynamic portfolio problem under the double-exponential jump diffusion (DEJD) distribution, which can allow the asset returns to jump asymmetrically.

The authors solve the problem by solving the HJB equation. Meanwhile, in the presence of jump component in the asset returns, the investor may suffer a large loss due to high leveraged position, so the authors impose the short-sale and borrowing constraints when solving the optimization problem.

The authors provide sufficient conditions such that the optimal solution exists and show theoretically that the optimal risky asset weight is an increasing function of jump-up probability and average jump-up size and a decreasing function of average jump-down size.

In this study, the authors assume that the jump-up and jump-down intensities are constant. In the future, the authors will relax the assumption and allows the jump intensities to be time varying.

Empirical studies based on Chinese Shanghai stock index data show that the jump distribution of Shanghai index returns is asymmetric, and the DEJD model can fit the data better than the log-normal jump-diffusion model. The numerical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction, and the authors find that the less risk-averse investor will suffer more economic cost if ignoring asymmetric jump distribution.

This study first examines how asymmetric jumps affect the investor’s portfolio allocation.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel jump control method based on Two Mass Spring Damp Inverted Pendulum (TMS-DIP) model, which makes the third generation of hydraulic driven wheel-legged robot prototype (WLR-3P) achieve stable jumping.

First, according to the configuration of the WLR, a TMS-DIP model is proposed to simplify the dynamic model of the robot. Then the jumping process is divided into four stages: thrust, ascent, descent and compression, and each stage is modeled and solved independently based on TMS-DIP model. Through WLR-3P kinematics, the trajectory of the upper and lower centroids of the TMS-DIP model can be mapped to the joint space of the robot. The corresponding control strategies are proposed for jumping height, landing buffer, jumping attitude and robotic balance, so as to realize the stable jump control of the WLR.

The TMS-DIP model proposed in this paper can simplify the WLR dynamic model and provide a simple and effective tool for the jumping trajectory planning of the robot. The proposed approach is suitable for hydraulic WLR jumping control. The performance of the proposed wheel-legged jump method was verified by experiments on WLR-3P.

This work provides an effective model (TMS-DIP) for the jump control of WLR-3P. The results showed that the number of landing shock (twice) and the pitch angle fluctuation range (0.44 rad) of center of mass of the jump control method based on TMS-DIP model are smaller than those based on spring-loaded inverted pendulum model. Therefore, the TMS-DIP model makes the jumping process of WLR more stable and gentler.